Tejano Star Bobby Pulido Aims to Flip South Texas District for Democrats
Singer Bobby Pulido is campaigning in a South Texas district to help Democrats win over culturally conservative Latino voters.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 9% |
| 4 Nov, 05:53 UTC | 9% |
| 4 Nov, 02:56 UTC | 90% |
| 3 Nov, 06:23 UTC | 37% |
| 3 Nov, 05:54 UTC | 45% |
| 3 Nov, 03:05 UTC | 44% |
| 3 Nov, 01:24 UTC | 37% |
| 1 Nov, 18:04 UTC | 39% |
| 31 Oct, 22:50 UTC | 32% |
| 30 Oct, 18:58 UTC | 31% |
| 30 Oct, 07:02 UTC | 36% |
| 29 Oct, 14:16 UTC | 34% |
| 28 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 26% |
| 26 Oct, 18:33 UTC | 30% |
| 26 Oct, 18:04 UTC | 31% |
| 26 Oct, 16:59 UTC | 30% |
| 26 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 31% |
| 26 Oct, 04:04 UTC | 30% |
| 24 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 31% |
| 22 Oct, 11:22 UTC | 36% |
| 14 Oct, 09:17 UTC | 86% |
| 5 Oct, 17:51 UTC | 38% |
| 26 Sept, 10:01 UTC | 24% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 18 Oct 2026. politico.com published first, on 18 October at 17:05 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- At least 54% — the market puts it at 9%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Bobby Pulido receives at least 54% of the popular vote in the 2026 TX-15 House election. It resolves to No if he receives less than that threshold. Readers often mistake the linked news headline for the deciding factor, but only the certified official vote count determines the outcome.
- Yes — resolved “Yes” on 4 Nov 2026. The outcome is Yes if a Democrat wins any statewide election in Texas during 2026. The outcome is No if no Democrat wins such an office in that year. Readers often mistake the deadline, thinking it applies to the nomination period rather than the actual election date.
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? — resolved “Yes” on 4 Nov 2026. The market resolves based on who wins the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. A Democrat wins if their party’s nominee takes office, regardless of whether they are a new candidate or a replacement for an earlier nominee. Readers often misunderstand that independent candidates do not count as Democrats, even if they have past ties to the party.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi At least 54% 9% −28
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Yes Yes 3d ago
The market favoured Yes at 78% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Resolved Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 3d ago
The market favoured Yes at 75% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Democrats
- Bobby Pulido