Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
The market favoured Yes at 75% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$4.9M
Total volume$10.1M
Liquidity$1.3M
Resolved4 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 03:18 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 02:56 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 02:26 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 97% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 82% |
| 4 Nov, 00:22 UTC | 77% |
| 3 Nov, 23:53 UTC | 81% |
| 3 Nov, 23:24 UTC | 79% |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | 76% |
| 3 Nov, 21:49 UTC | 77% |
| 3 Nov, 20:19 UTC | 76% |
| 3 Nov, 19:06 UTC | 75% |
| 3 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 74% |
| 3 Nov, 16:55 UTC | 73% |
| 3 Nov, 15:36 UTC | 73% |
| 3 Nov, 15:00 UTC | 74% |
| 3 Nov, 14:53 UTC | 73% |
| 3 Nov, 14:25 UTC | 74% |
| 3 Nov, 03:12 UTC | 75% |
| 3 Nov, 02:23 UTC | 74% |
| 3 Nov, 00:05 UTC | 73% |
| 2 Nov, 23:44 UTC | 74% |
| 2 Nov, 22:09 UTC | 75% |
| 2 Nov, 21:19 UTC | 76% |
| 2 Nov, 09:52 UTC | 76% |
| 2 Nov, 09:11 UTC | 77% |
| 2 Nov, 08:57 UTC | 76% |
| 2 Nov, 07:54 UTC | 75% |
| 2 Nov, 03:28 UTC | 73% |
| 2 Nov, 01:32 UTC | 72% |
| 1 Nov, 19:23 UTC | 71% |
| 1 Nov, 18:54 UTC | 72% |
| 31 Oct, 21:10 UTC | 71% |
| 31 Oct, 20:50 UTC | 71% |
| 31 Oct, 19:46 UTC | 71% |
| 31 Oct, 16:43 UTC | 72% |
| 31 Oct, 15:59 UTC | 71% |
| 31 Oct, 11:06 UTC | 72% |
| 31 Oct, 10:59 UTC | 73% |
| 30 Oct, 19:20 UTC | 72% |
| 30 Oct, 18:51 UTC | 71% |
| 30 Oct, 16:18 UTC | 71% |
| 30 Oct, 14:58 UTC | 72% |
| 30 Oct, 14:16 UTC | 71% |
| 30 Oct, 13:58 UTC | 71% |
| 30 Oct, 13:20 UTC | 71% |
| 30 Oct, 12:38 UTC | 72% |
| 30 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 71% |
| 30 Oct, 11:38 UTC | 72% |
| 30 Oct, 08:55 UTC | 71% |
| 30 Oct, 07:48 UTC | 72% |
| 30 Oct, 03:47 UTC | 71% |
| 30 Oct, 02:48 UTC | 70% |
What counts
The market resolves based on who wins the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. A Democrat wins if their party’s nominee takes office, regardless of whether they are a new candidate or a replacement for an earlier nominee. Readers often misunderstand that independent candidates do not count as Democrats, even if they have past ties to the party.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
View this market on Polymarket →