Yes
The market favoured Yes at 78% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$6k
Total volume$53k
Liquidity$53k
Resolved2 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 07:13 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 06:14 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 04:03 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 03:48 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 02:26 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Nov, 01:49 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 01:13 UTC | 88% |
| 4 Nov, 00:15 UTC | 92% |
| 3 Nov, 23:24 UTC | 85% |
| 3 Nov, 21:11 UTC | 92% |
| 3 Nov, 19:57 UTC | 75% |
| 3 Nov, 17:51 UTC | 76% |
| 3 Nov, 16:40 UTC | 77% |
| 3 Nov, 15:50 UTC | 79% |
| 3 Nov, 14:25 UTC | 73% |
| 3 Nov, 13:55 UTC | 82% |
| 3 Nov, 12:50 UTC | 79% |
| 3 Nov, 11:27 UTC | 78% |
| 3 Nov, 10:16 UTC | 77% |
| 3 Nov, 01:46 UTC | 78% |
| 3 Nov, 00:55 UTC | 76% |
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | 74% |
| 2 Nov, 20:37 UTC | 75% |
| 2 Nov, 16:04 UTC | 76% |
| 2 Nov, 12:42 UTC | 79% |
| 2 Nov, 02:58 UTC | 77% |
| 1 Nov, 22:46 UTC | 78% |
| 1 Nov, 18:40 UTC | 79% |
| 1 Nov, 15:31 UTC | 80% |
| 1 Nov, 13:09 UTC | 77% |
| 1 Nov, 05:25 UTC | 78% |
| 1 Nov, 02:15 UTC | 82% |
| 1 Nov, 01:52 UTC | 81% |
| 1 Nov, 00:41 UTC | 79% |
| 31 Oct, 22:28 UTC | 74% |
| 31 Oct, 19:17 UTC | 79% |
| 31 Oct, 17:42 UTC | 84% |
| 31 Oct, 14:16 UTC | 82% |
| 31 Oct, 12:54 UTC | 83% |
| 31 Oct, 12:18 UTC | 85% |
| 31 Oct, 03:01 UTC | 79% |
| 31 Oct, 02:12 UTC | 88% |
| 31 Oct, 01:39 UTC | 89% |
| 31 Oct, 00:57 UTC | 88% |
| 31 Oct, 00:24 UTC | 86% |
| 30 Oct, 23:41 UTC | 90% |
| 30 Oct, 21:17 UTC | 89% |
| 30 Oct, 18:37 UTC | 90% |
| 30 Oct, 18:10 UTC | 90% |
| 30 Oct, 17:41 UTC | 91% |
| 30 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 95% |
| 30 Oct, 10:50 UTC | 74% |
| 30 Oct, 05:21 UTC | 75% |
| 30 Oct, 04:08 UTC | 74% |
| 30 Oct, 03:47 UTC | 72% |
| 30 Oct, 00:21 UTC | 73% |
| 29 Oct, 21:55 UTC | 77% |
| 29 Oct, 00:00 UTC | 76% |
| 28 Oct, 22:39 UTC | 75% |
| 28 Oct, 21:15 UTC | 74% |
| 28 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 75% |
What counts
The outcome is Yes if a Democrat wins any statewide election in Texas during 2026. The outcome is No if no Democrat wins such an office in that year. Readers often mistake the deadline, thinking it applies to the nomination period rather than the actual election date.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%