Sullivan, Peltola Spar in Fiery Final Alaska Senate Debate
The candidates clashed over corruption and military spending during their final debate.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
First reported by Fox News Politics, 5h 46m ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 2 more published before price tracking began
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 3 Nov, 01:32 UTC | 1% |
| 3 Nov, 00:05 UTC | 2% |
| 1 Nov, 22:10 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Nov, 01:52 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Nov, 01:10 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 16:51 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 14:38 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 14:16 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 13:01 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 12:54 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 10:38 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 5% |
| 31 Oct, 08:42 UTC | 6% |
| 31 Oct, 08:28 UTC | 6% |
| 31 Oct, 07:18 UTC | 7% |
| 31 Oct, 06:57 UTC | 7% |
| 31 Oct, 06:15 UTC | 8% |
| 31 Oct, 05:33 UTC | 8% |
| 31 Oct, 04:35 UTC | 8% |
| 31 Oct, 01:46 UTC | 8% |
| 31 Oct, 01:11 UTC | 8% |
| 31 Oct, 00:57 UTC | 8% |
| 31 Oct, 00:02 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 23:23 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 22:54 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 22:26 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 17:34 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 16:10 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 14:58 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 13:20 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 12:06 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 11:59 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 11:10 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 09:29 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 06:35 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 06:14 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 05:35 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 05:00 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 04:29 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 03:54 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 02:55 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 02:16 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 01:41 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 01:21 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Oct, 22:03 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Oct, 21:34 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Oct, 20:16 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Oct, 17:19 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Oct, 15:38 UTC | 7% |
| 29 Oct, 14:40 UTC | 7% |
| 29 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 12:59 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 11:56 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 11:20 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 10:34 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 10:26 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 11:31 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 12:11 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 21:12 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Oct, 20:35 UTC | 5% |
| 21 Oct, 12:07 UTC | 7% |
| 20 Oct, 15:09 UTC | 7% |
| 20 Oct, 06:36 UTC | 7% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 7% |
| 17 Oct, 17:14 UTC | 8% |
| 17 Oct, 14:11 UTC | 7% |
| 17 Oct, 02:11 UTC | 7% |
| 17 Oct, 01:57 UTC | 7% |
| 16 Oct, 19:41 UTC | 11% |
| 16 Oct, 18:52 UTC | 10% |
| 16 Oct, 18:24 UTC | 11% |
| 16 Oct, 17:08 UTC | 10% |
| 16 Oct, 16:39 UTC | 9% |
| 16 Oct, 16:06 UTC | 11% |
| 16 Oct, 15:59 UTC | 11% |
| 16 Oct, 15:24 UTC | 12% |
| 16 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 11% |
The story so far
3 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 16 Oct 2026. Fox News Politics published first, on 16 October at 09:00 UTC; The Hill News followed 5h 47m later. The most recent article, from Politico, appeared on 17 October at 14:45 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The Hill News (major outlet), Politico (major outlet), Fox News Politics.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Sullivan flips Peltola for Alaska Senate by November 2? — resolved “No” on 3 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Dan Sullivan’s odds exceed Mary Peltola’s on PredictionMarketOdds.com for four consecutive hourly data points before November 3, 2026. The outcome depends strictly on these specific numerical values from that website, not on news reports or election results. Readers often mistake the deadline as Election Day rather than the specified date in late 2026.
- At least 46% — the market puts it at 92%, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Mary Peltola receives at least 46% of the popular vote in the final round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election. It resolves to No if she receives less than 46%. Readers often mistake the deadline for the election day rather than the date the results are officially certified.
- Dan Sullivan — the market puts it at 32%, with $32k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The outcome is Yes if Dan Sullivan wins the 2026 Alaska Senate election. The outcome is No if he does not win. Readers often mistake the date of the linked debate for the resolution deadline.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Sullivan flips Peltola for Alaska Senate by November 2? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Sullivan flips Peltola for Alaska Senate by November 2? No 4d ago
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Kalshi At least 46% 92%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Dan Sullivan 32% +2
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
In this story
- Mary Peltola
- Dan Sullivan