Sullivan flips Peltola for Alaska Senate by November 2?
Implied probability 1%
Total volume$25k
Liquidity$11k
Resolves3 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 1 Nov, 22:10 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Nov, 01:52 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Nov, 01:10 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 16:51 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 14:38 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 14:16 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 13:01 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 12:54 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 10:38 UTC | 2% |
| 31 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 5% |
| 31 Oct, 08:42 UTC | 6% |
| 31 Oct, 08:28 UTC | 6% |
| 31 Oct, 07:18 UTC | 7% |
| 31 Oct, 06:57 UTC | 7% |
| 31 Oct, 06:15 UTC | 8% |
| 31 Oct, 05:33 UTC | 8% |
| 31 Oct, 04:35 UTC | 8% |
| 31 Oct, 01:46 UTC | 8% |
| 31 Oct, 01:11 UTC | 8% |
| 31 Oct, 00:57 UTC | 8% |
| 31 Oct, 00:02 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 23:23 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 22:54 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 22:26 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 17:34 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 16:10 UTC | 8% |
| 30 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 14:58 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 13:20 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 12:06 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 11:59 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 11:10 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 09:29 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 06:35 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 06:14 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 05:35 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 05:00 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 04:29 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 03:54 UTC | 7% |
| 30 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 02:55 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 02:16 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 01:41 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 01:21 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Oct, 22:03 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Oct, 21:34 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Oct, 20:16 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Oct, 17:19 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 6% |
| 29 Oct, 15:38 UTC | 7% |
| 29 Oct, 14:40 UTC | 7% |
| 29 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 12:59 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 11:56 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 11:20 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 10:34 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 10:26 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 11:31 UTC | 4% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Dan Sullivan’s odds exceed Mary Peltola’s on PredictionMarketOdds.com for four consecutive hourly data points before November 3, 2026. The outcome depends strictly on these specific numerical values from that website, not on news reports or election results. Readers often mistake the deadline as Election Day rather than the specified date in late 2026.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%
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