Spain lifts arrest warrant for Catalan separatist leader Puigdemont
A Spanish court has lifted the warrant for Carles Puigdemont, allowing his return ahead of November elections after applying an amnesty law to embezzlement charges.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
First reported by News from Europe - Latest world headlines and daily news - France 24, 51 min ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
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| now | 21% |
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| 1 Oct, 15:02 UTC | 16% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? respond.
The story so far
6 publishers have covered this in 6 articles since 6 Oct 2026. News from Europe - Latest world headlines and daily news - France 24 published first, on 6 October at 12:10 UTC; South China Morning Post followed 52 min later. The most recent article, from Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera, appeared on 6 October at 18:58 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: ABC News (major outlet), The New York Times (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), News from Europe - Latest world headlines and daily news - France 24, South China Morning Post, Deutsche Welle.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? — the market puts it at 21%, with $60k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Apr 2028. For the "Yes" outcome, Pedro Sánchez must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn in as Prime Minister by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. The "No" outcome occurs if another individual assumes the role or if no new Prime Minister is officially confirmed by that deadline.
- Pedro Sánchez — the market puts it at 18%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 22 Aug 2028. The market resolves to Yes if Pedro Sánchez becomes Prime Minister of Spain after the next general election and satisfies all constitutional requirements before August 22, 2028. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the deadline for the election date rather than the final resolution cutoff.
- Vox — the market puts it at 69%, closing 1 Jan 2028. The outcome is Yes if a governing coalition that includes Vox forms the next elected Spanish government before January 1, 2028. The outcome is No if this does not happen by that date. Readers often mistake the lifting of an arrest warrant for Puigdemont as sufficient for a Yes resolution, but only the formation of a ruling coalition matters.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- News from Europe - Latest world headlines and daily news - France 24Catalan separatist Puigdemont cleared to return to Spain after court lifts arrest warrant18%
- South China Morning PostCatalan separatist leader Puigdemont set for Spain return after arrest warrant lifted18%
- ABC NewsSpain lifts arrest warrant for Catalan separatist Carles Puigdemont18%
- Deutsche WelleSpain court lifts Puigdemont arrest warrant, clearing way for his return home ahead of November elections18%
- The New York TimesSpain Cancels Arrest Warrant for Carles Puigdemont, Catalan Separatist Leader18%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraCatalan separatist Puigdemont to return to Spain after warrant lifted18%
- Current odds21%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Catalan separatist Puigdemont to return to Spain after warrant lifted Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Spain Cancels Arrest Warrant for Carles Puigdemont, Catalan Separatist Leader The New York Times ·
- Spain lifts arrest warrant for Catalan separatist Carles Puigdemont ABC News ·
- Spain court lifts Puigdemont arrest warrant, clearing way for his return home ahead of November elections Deutsche Welle
- Catalan separatist leader Puigdemont set for Spain return after arrest warrant lifted South China Morning Post
- Catalan separatist Puigdemont cleared to return to Spain after court lifts arrest warrant News from Europe - Latest world headlines and daily news - France 24
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Polymarket Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? 21% −2
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Pedro Sánchez 18% −4
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Vox 69%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Carles Puigdemont
- Spain
- Catalan
- Constitutional Court
- Pablo Llarena