Spain defeat England in UEFA Nations League thriller at Wembley

World champions Spain overturn a deficit to beat England in the UEFA Nations League, exposing the host nation's defensive vulnerabilities.

9 publishers · 25 articles · first seen 23 Sept 2026 · updated 38d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

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The odds

How the odds moved · Spain

Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 1 more published before price tracking began

Price data

Time	Chance of yes
now	46%
7 Oct, 00:35 UTC	44%
6 Oct, 20:30 UTC	46%
6 Oct, 17:53 UTC	42%
6 Oct, 08:29 UTC	46%
6 Oct, 07:51 UTC	34%
6 Oct, 07:19 UTC	37%
6 Oct, 04:55 UTC	45%
6 Oct, 01:16 UTC	50%
6 Oct, 00:36 UTC	44%
6 Oct, 00:03 UTC	46%
5 Oct, 22:49 UTC	50%
5 Oct, 21:40 UTC	40%
5 Oct, 20:17 UTC	44%
5 Oct, 19:49 UTC	45%
5 Oct, 16:54 UTC	37%
5 Oct, 15:28 UTC	41%
5 Oct, 14:09 UTC	38%
5 Oct, 09:01 UTC	42%
5 Oct, 05:43 UTC	40%
5 Oct, 03:19 UTC	38%
5 Oct, 02:07 UTC	43%
5 Oct, 00:36 UTC	36%
5 Oct, 00:11 UTC	46%
4 Oct, 23:58 UTC	38%
4 Oct, 21:50 UTC	43%
4 Oct, 21:05 UTC	45%
4 Oct, 19:07 UTC	44%
4 Oct, 16:48 UTC	45%
4 Oct, 13:32 UTC	44%
4 Oct, 13:24 UTC	45%
4 Oct, 11:36 UTC	46%
4 Oct, 08:04 UTC	45%
4 Oct, 07:31 UTC	46%
4 Oct, 07:12 UTC	36%
4 Oct, 06:01 UTC	46%
4 Oct, 05:17 UTC	47%
4 Oct, 04:20 UTC	50%
4 Oct, 02:23 UTC	41%
4 Oct, 01:20 UTC	42%
3 Oct, 23:55 UTC	49%
3 Oct, 23:03 UTC	42%
3 Oct, 22:43 UTC	45%
3 Oct, 22:16 UTC	45%
3 Oct, 21:50 UTC	46%
3 Oct, 21:03 UTC	39%
3 Oct, 20:30 UTC	45%
3 Oct, 19:36 UTC	48%
3 Oct, 19:22 UTC	46%
3 Oct, 18:16 UTC	42%
3 Oct, 17:56 UTC	51%
3 Oct, 16:32 UTC	49%
3 Oct, 16:13 UTC	36%
3 Oct, 15:27 UTC	51%
3 Oct, 14:27 UTC	50%
3 Oct, 12:15 UTC	48%
3 Oct, 08:48 UTC	40%
3 Oct, 05:10 UTC	40%
3 Oct, 04:24 UTC	48%
2 Oct, 22:57 UTC	52%
2 Oct, 21:05 UTC	50%
2 Oct, 20:58 UTC	41%
2 Oct, 19:36 UTC	58%
2 Oct, 19:16 UTC	46%
2 Oct, 18:13 UTC	43%
2 Oct, 16:57 UTC	41%
2 Oct, 16:23 UTC	42%
2 Oct, 15:59 UTC	32%
2 Oct, 15:16 UTC	43%
2 Oct, 14:35 UTC	43%
2 Oct, 13:55 UTC	32%
2 Oct, 08:32 UTC	41%
2 Oct, 08:09 UTC	32%
2 Oct, 03:55 UTC	34%
1 Oct, 22:57 UTC	38%
1 Oct, 21:37 UTC	42%
1 Oct, 19:48 UTC	40%
1 Oct, 17:38 UTC	35%
1 Oct, 16:59 UTC	34%
1 Oct, 15:00 UTC	35%
1 Oct, 14:21 UTC	34%
1 Oct, 13:46 UTC	31%
1 Oct, 13:06 UTC	35%
1 Oct, 09:59 UTC	42%
30 Sept, 19:01 UTC	43%
30 Sept, 17:28 UTC	40%
30 Sept, 16:59 UTC	42%
30 Sept, 04:13 UTC	43%
30 Sept, 03:42 UTC	43%
30 Sept, 02:28 UTC	41%
30 Sept, 01:01 UTC	45%
30 Sept, 00:03 UTC	44%
29 Sept, 22:38 UTC	57%
29 Sept, 21:17 UTC	40%
29 Sept, 20:42 UTC	57%
29 Sept, 20:18 UTC	49%
29 Sept, 07:48 UTC	37%
29 Sept, 05:53 UTC	42%
28 Sept, 19:18 UTC	57%
28 Sept, 11:55 UTC	33%
28 Sept, 02:48 UTC	61%
27 Sept, 21:08 UTC	32%
27 Sept, 20:36 UTC	31%
27 Sept, 19:05 UTC	32%
27 Sept, 16:44 UTC	63%
27 Sept, 13:55 UTC	64%
27 Sept, 10:15 UTC	42%
27 Sept, 05:43 UTC	64%
27 Sept, 01:17 UTC	62%
26 Sept, 23:00 UTC	55%
26 Sept, 21:58 UTC	54%
26 Sept, 19:16 UTC	65%
26 Sept, 15:23 UTC	66%
25 Sept, 20:11 UTC	64%
25 Sept, 19:39 UTC	63%
25 Sept, 17:20 UTC	36%
25 Sept, 06:03 UTC	38%
25 Sept, 05:02 UTC	64%
25 Sept, 04:11 UTC	65%
25 Sept, 02:13 UTC	66%
24 Sept, 21:25 UTC	67%
23 Sept, 20:54 UTC	0%

The story so far

9 publishers have covered this in 25 articles since 23 Sept 2026. France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines published first, on 23 September at 08:27 UTC; SkySports followed 47h 36m later. The most recent article, from The Guardian Sport, appeared on 29 September at 20:58 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: The Guardian Sport (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), www.espn.com (major outlet), France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines, SkySports, SI Feed, BBC Sport, CNET, Latest articles.

3 prediction markets price this story:

Spain — the market puts it at 46%, with $7k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 28 Jun 2027. The outcome is Yes if Spain wins the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League tournament. The outcome is No if any other team wins that specific title. Readers often mistake this for the current year's competition or confuse it with winning a single match rather than the entire championship.
Will Czechia win on 2026-10-06? — resolved “No” on 7 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Czechia wins the match scheduled for October 6, 2026, based on the score at the end of regular time plus stoppage time. It resolves to No if Czechia does not win or if the game is canceled without a make-up match. Readers often mistake the linked story about Spain and England as relevant, but this market depends solely on the outcome of the specific Czechia fixture.
Will England win on 2026-10-03? — resolved “Yes” on 3 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if England wins the match scheduled for October 3, 2026, based solely on the score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The outcome depends entirely on the official final result recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Readers often mistake the linked story about a past defeat as relevant, but this market applies only to the future game in question.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Spain at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

23 Sept, 08:27France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines Spain to face England on Saturday, after World Cup win—
25 Sept, 08:03SkySports Why Spain test is 'pivotal' for Tuchel's England project38%
25 Sept, 18:00The Guardian Sport England aim to win over Wembley and revive Wonderwall in Spain glamour fixture36%▼2 points since the previous source
26 Sept, 02:00SI Feed England vs. Spain—Nations League: Preview, Predictions and Lineups64%▲28 points since the previous source
26 Sept, 06:41BBC Sport Do England have a problem against top-10 teams?64%
26 Sept, 07:00The Guardian Sport How do England beat Spain, or even score against them? The data suggests crosses64%
26 Sept, 09:51Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera England vs Spain: UEFA Nations League – Predictions, teams, head-to-head64%
26 Sept, 15:45SI Feed How to Watch England vs. Spain on TV, Live Stream66%▲2 points since the previous source
26 Sept, 15:45CNET Watch UEFA Nations League Soccer: Livestream England vs. Spain From Anywhere for Free66%
26 Sept, 15:47Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera LIVE: England vs Spain – UEFA Nations League66%
Show 15 later sources
1. 26 Sept, 17:03SkySports Nations League: England vs Spain team news LIVE!66%
2. 26 Sept, 17:15The Guardian Sport England v Spain: Nations League football – live66%
3. 26 Sept, 17:45SI Feed England vs. Spain—Nations League: Live Score and Match Stats66%
4. 26 Sept, 21:17SkySports Spain show their class as errors cost England in Nations League loss65%▼1 points since the previous source
5. 26 Sept, 21:38SI Feed England vs. Spain Player Ratings: Errors, Substitutes Decide Five-Goal Thriller65%
6. 26 Sept, 22:04www.espn.com Spain expose England's shortcomings in breathtaking Wembley comeback54%▼11 points since the previous source
7. 26 Sept, 23:15SkySports Keane disagrees with Gordon: There is a gap between Spain and England55%▲1 points since the previous source
8. 27 Sept, 05:21Latest articles World champion Spain punishes England errors to win Nations League thriller62%▲7 points since the previous source
9. 27 Sept, 07:29The Guardian Sport Israel game goes ahead after Irish players’ vote; reaction to Spain’s win over England – matchday live64%▲2 points since the previous source
10. 27 Sept, 10:41France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines Spain return to action with hard-fought win at Wembley to extend streak42%▼22 points since the previous source
11. 28 Sept, 07:00The Guardian Sport Data shows England made inroads against Spain but they must be more clinical | Andrew Beasley61%▲19 points since the previous source
12. 28 Sept, 15:15The Guardian Sport The Nations League is a welcome example of soccer done well33%▼28 points since the previous source
13. 29 Sept, 15:45SI Feed How to Watch Spain vs. Croatia on TV, Live Stream37%▲4 points since the previous source
14. 29 Sept, 18:04The Guardian Sport Czechia v England: Nations League football – live37%
15. 29 Sept, 20:58The Guardian Sport Gordon and Kane fire England to Nations League victory against 10-man Czechia57%▲20 points since the previous source
NowCurrent odds46%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

Show 19 more sources

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

Kalshi Spain 46% +2 $7k 24hends 28 Jun 2027
Does the market have this right?

Wrong market?

What's wrong
Resolved Will Czechia win on 2026-10-06? No 31d ago
The market favoured No at 97% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

Wrong market?

What's wrong
Resolved Will England win on 2026-10-03? Yes 35d ago
The market favoured Yes at 54% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

Wrong market?

What's wrong

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In this story

England
Spain
Thomas Tuchel

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