Will England win on 2026-10-03?
The market favoured Yes at 54% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$1.4M
Total volume$1.5M
Liquidity$628k
Resolved3 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 3 Oct, 15:47 UTC | 57% |
| 3 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 57% |
| 3 Oct, 14:13 UTC | 57% |
| 3 Oct, 09:41 UTC | 56% |
| 3 Oct, 07:06 UTC | 56% |
| 3 Oct, 05:16 UTC | 56% |
| 3 Oct, 03:44 UTC | 56% |
| 3 Oct, 01:14 UTC | 55% |
| 1 Oct, 23:32 UTC | 54% |
| 1 Oct, 02:00 UTC | 53% |
| 1 Oct, 00:44 UTC | 52% |
| 1 Oct, 00:23 UTC | 52% |
| 30 Sept, 23:32 UTC | 53% |
| 30 Sept, 08:35 UTC | 52% |
| 30 Sept, 07:44 UTC | 51% |
| 30 Sept, 07:22 UTC | 51% |
| 30 Sept, 06:48 UTC | 51% |
| 29 Sept, 23:15 UTC | 53% |
| 29 Sept, 21:54 UTC | 53% |
| 29 Sept, 21:25 UTC | 51% |
| 28 Sept, 21:17 UTC | 55% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if England wins the match scheduled for October 3, 2026, based solely on the score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The outcome depends entirely on the official final result recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Readers often mistake the linked story about a past defeat as relevant, but this market applies only to the future game in question.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
View this market on Polymarket →