Sebastian Stan Teases Heartbreaking Moments in Avengers: Doomsday
The actor playing Bucky Barnes suggests the upcoming Marvel film will be emotionally difficult without confirming specific plot details or deaths.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
First reported by Deadline, 1h 50m ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 38% |
| 10 Oct, 02:46 UTC | 37% |
| 10 Oct, 02:19 UTC | 37% |
| 10 Oct, 01:53 UTC | 37% |
| 10 Oct, 01:26 UTC | 37% |
| 10 Oct, 00:59 UTC | 37% |
| 10 Oct, 00:19 UTC | 37% |
| 9 Oct, 23:32 UTC | 37% |
| 9 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 36% |
| 9 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 37% |
| 9 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 37% |
| 9 Oct, 21:44 UTC | 38% |
| 9 Oct, 21:23 UTC | 38% |
| 9 Oct, 20:55 UTC | 39% |
| 9 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 37% |
| 9 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 37% |
| 9 Oct, 19:10 UTC | 35% |
| 9 Oct, 18:56 UTC | 36% |
| 9 Oct, 18:28 UTC | 35% |
| 9 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 34% |
| 9 Oct, 17:25 UTC | 36% |
| 9 Oct, 16:44 UTC | 36% |
| 9 Oct, 16:23 UTC | 35% |
| 9 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 36% |
| 9 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 35% |
| 9 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 34% |
| 9 Oct, 14:09 UTC | 35% |
| 9 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 34% |
| 9 Oct, 13:28 UTC | 37% |
| 9 Oct, 12:52 UTC | 34% |
| 9 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 33% |
| 9 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 34% |
| 9 Oct, 11:29 UTC | 33% |
| 9 Oct, 10:54 UTC | 34% |
| 9 Oct, 10:08 UTC | 35% |
| 9 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 36% |
| 9 Oct, 09:27 UTC | 37% |
| 9 Oct, 08:42 UTC | 37% |
| 9 Oct, 08:09 UTC | 37% |
| 9 Oct, 07:43 UTC | 37% |
| 9 Oct, 07:16 UTC | 37% |
| 9 Oct, 06:38 UTC | 38% |
| 9 Oct, 06:25 UTC | 36% |
| 9 Oct, 05:58 UTC | 36% |
| 9 Oct, 05:27 UTC | 36% |
| 9 Oct, 04:46 UTC | 38% |
| 9 Oct, 04:15 UTC | 37% |
| 9 Oct, 03:54 UTC | 41% |
| 9 Oct, 02:55 UTC | 42% |
| 9 Oct, 02:21 UTC | 45% |
| 9 Oct, 01:42 UTC | 44% |
| 9 Oct, 01:29 UTC | 43% |
| 9 Oct, 00:55 UTC | 42% |
| 9 Oct, 00:23 UTC | 36% |
| 8 Oct, 23:56 UTC | 37% |
| 8 Oct, 23:23 UTC | 32% |
| 8 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 30% |
| 8 Oct, 22:29 UTC | 29% |
| 8 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 32% |
| 8 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 32% |
| 8 Oct, 20:54 UTC | 32% |
| 8 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 29% |
| 8 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 32% |
| 8 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 30% |
| 8 Oct, 18:54 UTC | 33% |
| 8 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 32% |
| 8 Oct, 17:50 UTC | 31% |
| 8 Oct, 17:16 UTC | 32% |
| 8 Oct, 16:46 UTC | 32% |
| 8 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 32% |
| 8 Oct, 15:36 UTC | 32% |
| 8 Oct, 13:59 UTC | 31% |
| 8 Oct, 13:00 UTC | 31% |
| 8 Oct, 11:39 UTC | 31% |
| 8 Oct, 11:25 UTC | 32% |
| 8 Oct, 10:38 UTC | 32% |
| 8 Oct, 10:07 UTC | 32% |
| 8 Oct, 09:38 UTC | 32% |
| 8 Oct, 09:23 UTC | 31% |
| 8 Oct, 08:55 UTC | 30% |
| 8 Oct, 07:58 UTC | 37% |
| 8 Oct, 07:13 UTC | 37% |
| 8 Oct, 06:18 UTC | 37% |
| 8 Oct, 05:45 UTC | 37% |
| 8 Oct, 04:23 UTC | 36% |
| 8 Oct, 03:48 UTC | 37% |
| 8 Oct, 03:15 UTC | 38% |
| 8 Oct, 02:40 UTC | 37% |
| 8 Oct, 02:09 UTC | 37% |
| 8 Oct, 01:42 UTC | 37% |
| 8 Oct, 01:29 UTC | 37% |
| 8 Oct, 00:47 UTC | 37% |
| 8 Oct, 00:21 UTC | 36% |
| 7 Oct, 23:46 UTC | 35% |
| 7 Oct, 23:24 UTC | 23% |
| 7 Oct, 22:51 UTC | 20% |
| 7 Oct, 22:25 UTC | 21% |
| 7 Oct, 21:58 UTC | 20% |
| 6 Oct, 21:58 UTC | 22% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Andrew Garfield as Spider-Man? respond.
The story so far
3 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 7 Oct 2026. Deadline published first, on 7 October at 19:10 UTC; The A.V. Club followed 1h 50m later. The most recent article, from Variety, appeared on 8 October at 02:44 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Variety (major outlet), Deadline, The A.V. Club.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Andrew Garfield as Spider-Man? — the market puts it at 38%, with $46 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jul 2027. The outcome is Yes if Andrew Garfield appears in the film Avengers: Doomsday, and No otherwise. The market resolves based on official casting announcements from Marvel or Warner Bros., credible reporting consensus, or footage from the domestic theatrical cut of the film.
- Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man? — the market puts it at 93%, with $561 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2028. The market resolves to Yes if Tobey Maguire performs as Spider-Man or is officially announced for that role in Avengers: Doomsday. It resolves to No if he does not appear in the film and no such announcement occurs. Readers often mistake this question for any general appearance by Tobey Maguire rather than specifically his role as Spider-Man.
- Before Dec 18, 2026 — the market puts it at 4%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 18 Dec 2026. The outcome is Yes if the release of Avengers: Doomsday occurs after December 18, 2026. The outcome is No if the film releases on or before that date. Readers often mistake the linked story about Avengers: Endgame for the relevant event instead of focusing on the release date of Avengers: Doomsday.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Andrew Garfield as Spider-Man? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- DeadlineSebastian Stan Says ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Is “Probably Heartbreaking”: “We’ll See Who Makes It To The Next Level”22%
- The A.V. ClubSebastian Stan hasn't seen Doomsday but is guessing it's sad22%
- VarietySebastian Stan Doesn’t Know How ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Turned Out, But Says It’s ‘Probably Heartbreaking’: ‘We’ll See Who Makes It’37%▲15 points since the previous source
- Current odds38%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Sebastian Stan Doesn’t Know How ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Turned Out, But Says It’s ‘Probably Heartbreaking’: ‘We’ll See Who Makes It’ Variety ·
- Sebastian Stan hasn't seen Doomsday but is guessing it's sad The A.V. Club
- Sebastian Stan Says ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ Is “Probably Heartbreaking”: “We’ll See Who Makes It To The Next Level” Deadline
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Polymarket Andrew Garfield as Spider-Man? 38% −3
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man? 93% +2
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Before Dec 18, 2026 4% +2
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
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In this story
- Sebastian Stan
- Bucky Barnes
- Avengers: Doomsday