S&P 500 Notches First Record Close Since August
The index achieves its highest closing level in over four months, marking a significant milestone for the benchmark.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 01:42 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 00:14 UTC | 49% |
| 27 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Oct, 18:41 UTC | 13% |
| 26 Oct, 08:09 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Oct, 01:06 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 20:19 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 13:34 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 21:12 UTC | 50% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 24% |
| 17 Oct, 02:04 UTC | 5% |
| 16 Oct, 16:20 UTC | 22% |
| 15 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 25% |
| 15 Oct, 14:06 UTC | 23% |
| 15 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 27% |
| 14 Oct, 19:43 UTC | 55% |
| 14 Oct, 18:48 UTC | 26% |
| 14 Oct, 15:32 UTC | 31% |
| 14 Oct, 04:34 UTC | 23% |
| 13 Oct, 06:35 UTC | 42% |
| 12 Oct, 22:33 UTC | 31% |
| 12 Oct, 03:06 UTC | 50% |
| 10 Oct, 20:53 UTC | 57% |
| 10 Oct, 00:53 UTC | 60% |
| 8 Oct, 15:21 UTC | 62% |
| 7 Oct, 21:04 UTC | 66% |
| 7 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 54% |
| 6 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 55% |
| 6 Oct, 05:01 UTC | 46% |
| 5 Oct, 20:24 UTC | 35% |
| 5 Oct, 19:42 UTC | 25% |
| 5 Oct, 19:21 UTC | 37% |
| 4 Oct, 05:11 UTC | 21% |
| 3 Oct, 19:09 UTC | 40% |
| 2 Oct, 17:52 UTC | 51% |
| 2 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 32% |
| 1 Oct, 15:43 UTC | 34% |
| 1 Oct, 06:55 UTC | 36% |
| 30 Sept, 20:01 UTC | 35% |
| 30 Sept, 18:14 UTC | 37% |
| 23 Sept, 12:14 UTC | 44% |
| 22 Sept, 11:54 UTC | 35% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 6 Oct 2026. Bloomberg.com published first, on 6 October at 21:35 UTC.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Before Nov 1, 2026 — resolved “No” on 1 Nov 2026. The outcome is Yes if the S&P 500 Index exceeds $8,000 at any time between now and November 1, 2026. The outcome is No if the index never reaches that level within this period. Readers often mistake the resolution date for a closing price requirement rather than a threshold check.
- 8,500 or above — the market puts it at 1%, closing 31 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 index value exceeds 8500 on December 31, 2026 at 4pm EST. It resolves to No if the value is 8500 or lower at that specific time. Readers often mistake the date of the linked news story for the resolution deadline.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Before Nov 1, 2026 No 6d ago
The market favoured No at 97% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Kalshi 8,500 or above 1%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
In this story
- S&P 500