Before Nov 1, 2026
Implied probability 3%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$17k
Liquidity$17k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 01:42 UTC | 3% |
| 28 Oct, 00:14 UTC | 49% |
| 27 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 5% |
| 27 Oct, 18:41 UTC | 13% |
| 26 Oct, 08:09 UTC | 1% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 13% |
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if the S&P 500 Index exceeds $8,000 at any time between now and November 1, 2026. The outcome is No if the index never reaches that level within this period. Readers often mistake the resolution date for a closing price requirement rather than a threshold check.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%