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Rubio urges Cubans to partner with CIA for 'positive change'

The US Secretary of State called on citizens in Cuba to secretly collaborate with the Central Intelligence Agency to overthrow their government and create political change.

17 publishers · 52 articles · first seen 14 Oct 2026 · updated 6d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

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The odds

How the odds moved · Cuba
0%50%100%16%24 Sept, 18:48 UTCnowNPR World: Secretary Rubio has a tough time getting officials at G20 on the same page · 31 Oct, 21:14 UTCBloomberg Markets: Rubio Defends Russian G20 Presence Despite Criticism From Allies · 31 Oct, 20:41 UTCAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: Rubio hosts G20 talks as Russia’s Lavrov presence sparks tensions · 30 Oct, 20:13 UTCNews Feed: After the US midterms, watch Cuba · 30 Oct, 13:00 UTCThe Hill News: Trump’s crony diplomacy is marginalizing Marco Rubio · 29 Oct, 12:00 UTCPolitico: Republicans wanted Rubio on the stump. Trump coaxed him there. · 27 Oct, 22:50 UTCThe Hill: Rubio delivers 11-second remarks at Trump rally · 27 Oct, 21:17 UTCThe Guardian: What Marco Rubio’s sidestepping of New Delhi says about the US’s stance on India · 27 Oct, 09:21 UTCNews Feed: Marco Rubio still owes Europe answers about America’s intentions · 25 Oct, 16:00 UTCCBS News Politics: Rubio calls on Cubans seeking "positive change" to work with CIA · 24 Oct, 15:49 UTCAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: Rubio calls on Cubans to partner with CIA ‘to create positive change’ · 24 Oct, 08:28 UTCAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: Marco Rubio urges Cubans to collaborate with CIA to topple gov’t · 24 Oct, 03:50 UTCJust In News: Rubio floats CIA 'partnership' to Cubans tired of 'failed promises, corruption' · 24 Oct, 02:51 UTCNews Feed: The Indian mega-refinery drawing Rubio’s interest · 21 Oct, 06:09 UTCBloomberg Markets: Rubio to Discuss Venezuelan Crude with Ambani · 21 Oct, 05:28 UTCABC News: Rubio and Jaishankar hold talks in Mumbai as US and India aim to finalize trade deal · 20 Oct, 13:30 UTCAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: Why Rubio is visiting Reliance’s oil refinery in India, the world’s largest · 20 Oct, 12:37 UTCThe New York Times: Rubio Visits India to Boost Economic Ties Amid Friction With Trump · 20 Oct, 11:54 UTCBloomberg Markets: Rubio Visits Uzbekistan Seeking Strong Central Asia Partnership · 19 Oct, 05:19 UTCAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera: Why Marco Rubio’s visit to Mumbai has ruffled feathers in India · 18 Oct, 05:16 UTCBloomberg Markets: Rubio Set to Meet Ambani, Signaling Steady Ties Despite Musk · 15 Oct, 07:28 UTCNews - South China Morning Post: G20 foreign ministers end Atlanta meeting without consensus on key issues · 31 Oct, 19:32 UTCSouth China Morning Post: Quad diplomats finalise first leaders’ summit in two years before Trump-Xi meeting · 31 Oct, 16:17 UTCTimes of India: Jaishankar, Rubio review India-US bilateral cooperation during Atlanta meeting · 31 Oct, 04:40 UTCFox News World: GOP lawmakers urge Rubio to weigh visa restrictions on corrupt officials as Albania rocked by protests · 28 Oct, 16:54 UTCSouth China Morning Post: Rubio invokes China, Russia to defend disputed Venezuela oil deal · 27 Oct, 16:18 UTCTimes of India: Days after Rubio's visit, Centre says 'under no pressure' to stop buying Russian oil · 27 Oct, 13:13 UTCTimes of India: Jaishankar takes swipe at ‘political calculations’ days after Rubio defends Pak ties · 25 Oct, 11:27 UTCFortune: Trump suggests U.S. warships ‘do a little stopover’ in Cuba after Iran war, while Rubio pushes Cubans toward a ‘discrete partnership with the CIA’ · 24 Oct, 14:44 UTCFrance 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines: US seeks to topple Cuba's government · 24 Oct, 11:43 UTCTimes of India: 'Now is the time': Rubio warns Cuba next after Iran, asks Cubans to join hands · 24 Oct, 04:41 UTCFox News World: Rubio urges Cubans to work with CIA to bring political change to communist-run island · 23 Oct, 23:43 UTCBBC News: Rubio turns to small Indian town as US faces high oil prices · 23 Oct, 08:39 UTCTimes of India: At Jamnagar refinery, Rubio and Ambanis discuss energy, digital infrastructure · 21 Oct, 20:54 UTCNews - South China Morning Post: Why US Secretary of State Rubio is skipping Delhi for an Indian oil refinery · 21 Oct, 10:30 UTCTimes of India: India-US ‘pretty close’ to signing a ‘different kind of deal,’ says Trump · 21 Oct, 02:20 UTCTimes of India: India & US to boost defence, energy ties, Marco Rubio says trade deal close · 20 Oct, 20:57 UTCTimes of India: In talks with Reliance to refine more Venezuelan oil: Marco Rubio · 20 Oct, 20:37 UTCTimes of India: 'Will happen shortly': Rubio on US trade deal; calls India 'refining superpower' · 20 Oct, 10:55 UTCTimes of India: Rubio lands in India; Jaishankar talks, Jamnagar trip on agenda · 20 Oct, 09:25 UTCDeutsche Welle: India news: Rubio set to hold talks with S Jaishankar · 20 Oct, 06:22 UTCDeutsche Welle: India news: Rubio holds talks with counterpart Jaishankar · 20 Oct, 06:22 UTCSouth China Morning Post: Rubio pitches US business in Central Asia, says China ties need not suffer · 19 Oct, 17:49 UTCDeutsche Welle: Rubio visits India with a trip to the world's largest oil refinery topping the agenda · 19 Oct, 12:31 UTCDeutsche Welle: Marco Rubio visits India this week, with a trip to the world's largest oil refinery topping the agenda · 19 Oct, 12:31 UTCDeutsche Welle: Marco Rubio visits India this week, with a visit to the world's largest oil refinery topping the agenda · 19 Oct, 12:31 UTCTimes of India: 'Geography is real': Rubio says India-US trade deal close, explains stance on Russian oil · 19 Oct, 07:47 UTCTimes of India: On eve of visit, Rubio cites India to defend Russia sanction pause · 18 Oct, 23:46 UTCTimes of India: 'Important ally and partner': Rubio leaves for India amid Trump’s Russian oil tariff threat · 18 Oct, 03:15 UTCTimes of India: Jamnagar on Rubio's two-day itinerary: Musk mellows on Reliance, ‘appreciates’ post · 17 Oct, 22:54 UTCTimes of India: Reliance Industries to Elon Musk: Competition welcome, but follow rules · 16 Oct, 23:21 UTCTimes of India: After Musk’s Ambani meltdown, Rubio to visit Reliance refinery · 14 Oct, 19:07 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now16%
2 Nov, 16:04 UTC16%
1 Nov, 16:15 UTC13%
31 Oct, 17:34 UTC15%
30 Oct, 21:46 UTC17%
30 Oct, 09:22 UTC21%
29 Oct, 14:32 UTC20%
27 Oct, 21:12 UTC17%
24 Oct, 23:19 UTC15%
24 Oct, 17:29 UTC21%
24 Oct, 14:12 UTC20%
24 Oct, 13:00 UTC21%
22 Oct, 18:27 UTC20%
21 Oct, 00:29 UTC17%
20 Oct, 07:09 UTC21%
20 Oct, 05:47 UTC17%
19 Oct, 02:29 UTC16%
18 Oct, 20:13 UTC17%
18 Oct, 15:02 UTC23%
15 Oct, 16:22 UTC14%
15 Oct, 04:22 UTC17%
15 Oct, 00:58 UTC14%
8 Oct, 00:06 UTC17%
30 Sept, 03:56 UTC20%
29 Sept, 05:53 UTC45%
27 Sept, 13:09 UTC50%
26 Sept, 16:48 UTC29%
26 Sept, 06:00 UTC27%
26 Sept, 04:52 UTC50%
25 Sept, 21:55 UTC21%
25 Sept, 19:03 UTC23%
24 Sept, 18:48 UTC22%

The story so far

17 publishers have covered this in 52 articles since 14 Oct 2026. Times of India published first, on 14 October at 19:07 UTC; Bloomberg Markets followed 12h 20m later. The most recent article, from NPR World, appeared on 31 October at 21:14 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Bloomberg Markets (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), The New York Times (major outlet), ABC News (major outlet), News Feed (major outlet), The Hill News (major outlet), CBS News Politics (major outlet), The Guardian (major outlet), Politico (major outlet), NPR World (major outlet), Times of India, Deutsche Welle and 5 more, all listed under Sources below.

3 prediction markets price this story:

  • Cuba — the market puts it at 16%, with $251 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the U.S. Secretary of State visits Cuba before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked story about Ecuador for a relevant event, but only a visit by the Secretary of State counts.
  • Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — the market puts it at 19%, with $37k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 8 Nov 2028. The market resolves to Yes if Marco Rubio wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, as confirmed by a consensus of official Republican Party sources. It resolves to No if he does not secure this specific outcome. Readers often mistake the final nominee for the resolution criteria, but any replacement before election day does not change the result.
  • Marco Rubio — the market puts it at 1%, closing 27 Jan 2029. The outcome is Yes if Marco Rubio formally becomes White House Press Secretary before January 20, 2029, and he is the first person to hold that role after the market opens. The outcome is No if he does not take the position by that date or if someone else holds it first. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Venezuela talks as relevant to the resolution criteria.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Cuba at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

  1. Times of IndiaAfter Musk’s Ambani meltdown, Rubio to visit Reliance refinery17%
  2. Bloomberg MarketsRubio Set to Meet Ambani, Signaling Steady Ties Despite Musk17%
  3. Times of IndiaReliance Industries to Elon Musk: Competition welcome, but follow rules14%▼3 points since the previous source
  4. Times of IndiaJamnagar on Rubio's two-day itinerary: Musk mellows on Reliance, ‘appreciates’ post14%
  5. Times of India'Important ally and partner': Rubio leaves for India amid Trump’s Russian oil tariff threat14%
  6. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraWhy Marco Rubio’s visit to Mumbai has ruffled feathers in India14%
  7. Times of IndiaOn eve of visit, Rubio cites India to defend Russia sanction pause17%▲3 points since the previous source
  8. Bloomberg MarketsRubio Visits Uzbekistan Seeking Strong Central Asia Partnership16%▼1 points since the previous source
  9. Times of India'Geography is real': Rubio says India-US trade deal close, explains stance on Russian oil16%
  10. Deutsche WelleRubio visits India with a trip to the world's largest oil refinery topping the agenda16%
  11. Show 42 later sources
    1. Deutsche WelleMarco Rubio visits India this week, with a trip to the world's largest oil refinery topping the agenda16%
    2. Deutsche WelleMarco Rubio visits India this week, with a visit to the world's largest oil refinery topping the agenda16%
    3. South China Morning PostRubio pitches US business in Central Asia, says China ties need not suffer16%
    4. Deutsche WelleIndia news: Rubio set to hold talks with S Jaishankar17%▲1 points since the previous source
    5. Deutsche WelleIndia news: Rubio holds talks with counterpart Jaishankar17%
    6. Times of IndiaRubio lands in India; Jaishankar talks, Jamnagar trip on agenda21%▲4 points since the previous source
    7. Times of India'Will happen shortly': Rubio on US trade deal; calls India 'refining superpower'21%
    8. The New York TimesRubio Visits India to Boost Economic Ties Amid Friction With Trump21%
    9. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraWhy Rubio is visiting Reliance’s oil refinery in India, the world’s largest21%
    10. ABC NewsRubio and Jaishankar hold talks in Mumbai as US and India aim to finalize trade deal21%
    11. Times of IndiaIn talks with Reliance to refine more Venezuelan oil: Marco Rubio21%
    12. Times of IndiaIndia & US to boost defence, energy ties, Marco Rubio says trade deal close21%
    13. Times of IndiaIndia-US ‘pretty close’ to signing a ‘different kind of deal,’ says Trump17%▼4 points since the previous source
    14. Bloomberg MarketsRubio to Discuss Venezuelan Crude with Ambani17%
    15. News FeedThe Indian mega-refinery drawing Rubio’s interest17%
    16. News - South China Morning PostWhy US Secretary of State Rubio is skipping Delhi for an Indian oil refinery17%
    17. Times of IndiaAt Jamnagar refinery, Rubio and Ambanis discuss energy, digital infrastructure17%
    18. BBC NewsRubio turns to small Indian town as US faces high oil prices20%▲3 points since the previous source
    19. Fox News WorldRubio urges Cubans to work with CIA to bring political change to communist-run island20%
    20. Just In NewsRubio floats CIA 'partnership' to Cubans tired of 'failed promises, corruption'20%
    21. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraMarco Rubio urges Cubans to collaborate with CIA to topple gov’t20%
    22. Times of India'Now is the time': Rubio warns Cuba next after Iran, asks Cubans to join hands20%
    23. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraRubio calls on Cubans to partner with CIA ‘to create positive change’20%
    24. France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesUS seeks to topple Cuba's government20%
    25. FortuneTrump suggests U.S. warships ‘do a little stopover’ in Cuba after Iran war, while Rubio pushes Cubans toward a ‘discrete partnership with the CIA’20%
    26. CBS News PoliticsRubio calls on Cubans seeking "positive change" to work with CIA20%
    27. Times of IndiaJaishankar takes swipe at ‘political calculations’ days after Rubio defends Pak ties15%▼5 points since the previous source
    28. News FeedMarco Rubio still owes Europe answers about America’s intentions15%
    29. The GuardianWhat Marco Rubio’s sidestepping of New Delhi says about the US’s stance on India15%
    30. Times of IndiaDays after Rubio's visit, Centre says 'under no pressure' to stop buying Russian oil15%
    31. South China Morning PostRubio invokes China, Russia to defend disputed Venezuela oil deal15%
    32. The HillRubio delivers 11-second remarks at Trump rally17%▲2 points since the previous source
    33. PoliticoRepublicans wanted Rubio on the stump. Trump coaxed him there.17%
    34. Fox News WorldGOP lawmakers urge Rubio to weigh visa restrictions on corrupt officials as Albania rocked by protests17%
    35. The Hill NewsTrump’s crony diplomacy is marginalizing Marco Rubio17%
    36. News FeedAfter the US midterms, watch Cuba21%▲4 points since the previous source
    37. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraRubio hosts G20 talks as Russia’s Lavrov presence sparks tensions21%
    38. Times of IndiaJaishankar, Rubio review India-US bilateral cooperation during Atlanta meeting17%▼4 points since the previous source
    39. South China Morning PostQuad diplomats finalise first leaders’ summit in two years before Trump-Xi meeting17%
    40. News - South China Morning PostG20 foreign ministers end Atlanta meeting without consensus on key issues15%▼2 points since the previous source
    41. Bloomberg MarketsRubio Defends Russian G20 Presence Despite Criticism From Allies15%
    42. NPR WorldSecretary Rubio has a tough time getting officials at G20 on the same page15%
  12. Current odds16%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. Secretary Rubio has a tough time getting officials at G20 on the same page NPR World ·
  2. Rubio Defends Russian G20 Presence Despite Criticism From Allies Bloomberg Markets ·
  3. Rubio hosts G20 talks as Russia’s Lavrov presence sparks tensions Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
  4. After the US midterms, watch Cuba News Feed ·
  5. Trump’s crony diplomacy is marginalizing Marco Rubio The Hill News ·
  6. Republicans wanted Rubio on the stump. Trump coaxed him there. Politico ·
Show 46 more sources
  1. Rubio delivers 11-second remarks at Trump rally The Hill ·
  2. What Marco Rubio’s sidestepping of New Delhi says about the US’s stance on India The Guardian ·
  3. Marco Rubio still owes Europe answers about America’s intentions News Feed ·
  4. Rubio calls on Cubans seeking "positive change" to work with CIA CBS News Politics ·
  5. Rubio calls on Cubans to partner with CIA ‘to create positive change’ Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
  6. Marco Rubio urges Cubans to collaborate with CIA to topple gov’t Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
  7. Rubio floats CIA 'partnership' to Cubans tired of 'failed promises, corruption' Just In News ·
  8. The Indian mega-refinery drawing Rubio’s interest News Feed ·
  9. Rubio to Discuss Venezuelan Crude with Ambani Bloomberg Markets ·
  10. Rubio and Jaishankar hold talks in Mumbai as US and India aim to finalize trade deal ABC News ·
  11. Why Rubio is visiting Reliance’s oil refinery in India, the world’s largest Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
  12. Rubio Visits India to Boost Economic Ties Amid Friction With Trump The New York Times ·
  13. Rubio Visits Uzbekistan Seeking Strong Central Asia Partnership Bloomberg Markets ·
  14. Why Marco Rubio’s visit to Mumbai has ruffled feathers in India Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
  15. Rubio Set to Meet Ambani, Signaling Steady Ties Despite Musk Bloomberg Markets ·
  16. G20 foreign ministers end Atlanta meeting without consensus on key issues News - South China Morning Post
  17. Quad diplomats finalise first leaders’ summit in two years before Trump-Xi meeting South China Morning Post
  18. Jaishankar, Rubio review India-US bilateral cooperation during Atlanta meeting Times of India
  19. GOP lawmakers urge Rubio to weigh visa restrictions on corrupt officials as Albania rocked by protests Fox News World
  20. Rubio invokes China, Russia to defend disputed Venezuela oil deal South China Morning Post
  21. Days after Rubio's visit, Centre says 'under no pressure' to stop buying Russian oil Times of India
  22. Jaishankar takes swipe at ‘political calculations’ days after Rubio defends Pak ties Times of India
  23. Trump suggests U.S. warships ‘do a little stopover’ in Cuba after Iran war, while Rubio pushes Cubans toward a ‘discrete partnership with the CIA’ Fortune
  24. US seeks to topple Cuba's government France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
  25. 'Now is the time': Rubio warns Cuba next after Iran, asks Cubans to join hands Times of India
  26. Rubio urges Cubans to work with CIA to bring political change to communist-run island Fox News World
  27. Rubio turns to small Indian town as US faces high oil prices BBC News
  28. At Jamnagar refinery, Rubio and Ambanis discuss energy, digital infrastructure Times of India
  29. Why US Secretary of State Rubio is skipping Delhi for an Indian oil refinery News - South China Morning Post
  30. India-US ‘pretty close’ to signing a ‘different kind of deal,’ says Trump Times of India
  31. India & US to boost defence, energy ties, Marco Rubio says trade deal close Times of India
  32. In talks with Reliance to refine more Venezuelan oil: Marco Rubio Times of India
  33. 'Will happen shortly': Rubio on US trade deal; calls India 'refining superpower' Times of India
  34. Rubio lands in India; Jaishankar talks, Jamnagar trip on agenda Times of India
  35. India news: Rubio set to hold talks with S Jaishankar Deutsche Welle
  36. India news: Rubio holds talks with counterpart Jaishankar Deutsche Welle
  37. Rubio pitches US business in Central Asia, says China ties need not suffer South China Morning Post
  38. Rubio visits India with a trip to the world's largest oil refinery topping the agenda Deutsche Welle
  39. Marco Rubio visits India this week, with a trip to the world's largest oil refinery topping the agenda Deutsche Welle
  40. Marco Rubio visits India this week, with a visit to the world's largest oil refinery topping the agenda Deutsche Welle
  41. 'Geography is real': Rubio says India-US trade deal close, explains stance on Russian oil Times of India
  42. On eve of visit, Rubio cites India to defend Russia sanction pause Times of India
  43. 'Important ally and partner': Rubio leaves for India amid Trump’s Russian oil tariff threat Times of India
  44. Jamnagar on Rubio's two-day itinerary: Musk mellows on Reliance, ‘appreciates’ post Times of India
  45. Reliance Industries to Elon Musk: Competition welcome, but follow rules Times of India
  46. After Musk’s Ambani meltdown, Rubio to visit Reliance refinery Times of India

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Kalshi Cuba 16% +3 $251 24hends 1 Jan 2027

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  • Polymarket Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? 19% −2 $37k 24hends 8 Nov 2028

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    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi Marco Rubio 1% $0 24hends 27 Jan 2029

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In this story

  • Marco Rubio
  • CIA
  • Cuba
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