Cuba
Implied probability 16%+3
24-hour volume$251
Total volume$48k
Liquidity$48k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 16% |
| 2 Nov, 16:04 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Nov, 16:15 UTC | 13% |
| 31 Oct, 17:34 UTC | 15% |
| 30 Oct, 21:46 UTC | 17% |
| 30 Oct, 09:22 UTC | 21% |
| 29 Oct, 14:32 UTC | 20% |
| 27 Oct, 21:12 UTC | 17% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the U.S. Secretary of State visits Cuba before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked story about Ecuador for a relevant event, but only a visit by the Secretary of State counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 16%
- No 84%