Republican Senators Break From Trump in Noticeable Ways
Republican senators are beginning to diverge from President Donald Trump's positions, marking a shift in legislative alignment.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 08:03 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 07:41 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 07:20 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 06:28 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 05:53 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 05:17 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 03:18 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 02:56 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 02:26 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 9% |
| 4 Nov, 00:22 UTC | 8% |
| 3 Nov, 23:53 UTC | 12% |
| 3 Nov, 21:57 UTC | 14% |
| 3 Nov, 17:51 UTC | 13% |
| 3 Nov, 00:33 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Nov, 22:02 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | 16% |
| 2 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Nov, 17:49 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Nov, 16:49 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Nov, 14:49 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Nov, 13:41 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Nov, 05:46 UTC | 16% |
| 31 Oct, 17:34 UTC | 14% |
| 31 Oct, 14:31 UTC | 14% |
| 31 Oct, 12:18 UTC | 14% |
| 31 Oct, 10:06 UTC | 14% |
| 31 Oct, 08:21 UTC | 14% |
| 31 Oct, 06:15 UTC | 14% |
| 31 Oct, 05:19 UTC | 14% |
| 30 Oct, 15:35 UTC | 14% |
| 30 Oct, 01:21 UTC | 15% |
| 30 Oct, 00:49 UTC | 16% |
| 29 Oct, 15:45 UTC | 15% |
| 29 Oct, 15:22 UTC | 16% |
| 29 Oct, 14:40 UTC | 15% |
| 29 Oct, 07:32 UTC | 16% |
| 29 Oct, 06:04 UTC | 15% |
| 29 Oct, 04:35 UTC | 16% |
| 28 Oct, 22:39 UTC | 14% |
| 28 Oct, 11:10 UTC | 16% |
| 28 Oct, 10:02 UTC | 14% |
| 27 Oct, 18:41 UTC | 16% |
| 27 Oct, 18:05 UTC | 16% |
| 27 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 16% |
| 27 Oct, 15:20 UTC | 16% |
| 27 Oct, 08:20 UTC | 15% |
| 26 Oct, 03:06 UTC | 16% |
| 26 Oct, 02:27 UTC | 16% |
| 26 Oct, 01:34 UTC | 16% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 17% |
| 25 Oct, 23:35 UTC | 17% |
| 25 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 17% |
| 25 Oct, 22:20 UTC | 17% |
| 25 Oct, 21:36 UTC | 17% |
| 25 Oct, 21:29 UTC | 17% |
| 25 Oct, 20:33 UTC | 17% |
| 25 Oct, 15:03 UTC | 18% |
| 25 Oct, 13:49 UTC | 18% |
| 25 Oct, 13:25 UTC | 19% |
| 25 Oct, 08:07 UTC | 18% |
| 24 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 18% |
| 24 Oct, 01:38 UTC | 18% |
| 24 Oct, 01:25 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Oct, 23:43 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Oct, 17:38 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 19% |
| 23 Oct, 16:07 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Oct, 15:49 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Oct, 13:19 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Oct, 04:57 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Oct, 03:53 UTC | 18% |
| 20 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 18% |
| 10 Oct, 19:37 UTC | 17% |
| 10 Oct, 12:54 UTC | 16% |
| 10 Oct, 12:21 UTC | 15% |
| 10 Oct, 11:47 UTC | 15% |
| 10 Oct, 10:31 UTC | 16% |
| 10 Oct, 09:28 UTC | 16% |
| 10 Oct, 07:17 UTC | 17% |
| 10 Oct, 06:57 UTC | 16% |
| 10 Oct, 06:13 UTC | 16% |
| 10 Oct, 05:59 UTC | 16% |
| 10 Oct, 03:20 UTC | 17% |
| 10 Oct, 02:46 UTC | 17% |
| 10 Oct, 02:26 UTC | 18% |
| 10 Oct, 00:12 UTC | 19% |
| 9 Oct, 19:10 UTC | 18% |
| 9 Oct, 18:56 UTC | 18% |
| 9 Oct, 18:20 UTC | 18% |
| 6 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 18% |
| 5 Oct, 23:16 UTC | 17% |
| 5 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 16% |
| 5 Oct, 22:15 UTC | 16% |
| 5 Oct, 21:40 UTC | 16% |
| 5 Oct, 21:05 UTC | 16% |
| 5 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 16% |
| 5 Oct, 20:24 UTC | 16% |
| 5 Oct, 19:42 UTC | 17% |
| 5 Oct, 19:21 UTC | 16% |
| 5 Oct, 18:42 UTC | 16% |
| 5 Oct, 14:38 UTC | 18% |
| 5 Oct, 14:01 UTC | 18% |
| 5 Oct, 04:33 UTC | 18% |
| 5 Oct, 03:13 UTC | 18% |
| 5 Oct, 01:23 UTC | 18% |
| 4 Oct, 23:32 UTC | 18% |
| 4 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 18% |
| 4 Oct, 22:37 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 18% |
| 4 Oct, 21:31 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 18% |
| 4 Oct, 20:19 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Oct, 19:59 UTC | 18% |
| 4 Oct, 19:07 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Oct, 18:47 UTC | 18% |
| 4 Oct, 18:07 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Oct, 17:47 UTC | 18% |
| 4 Oct, 17:20 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Oct, 16:42 UTC | 18% |
| 4 Oct, 16:25 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Oct, 15:25 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 18% |
| 4 Oct, 14:07 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Oct, 13:54 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Oct, 13:05 UTC | 18% |
| 4 Oct, 12:19 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Oct, 11:43 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Oct, 11:17 UTC | 18% |
| 4 Oct, 10:57 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Oct, 10:26 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Oct, 09:21 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Oct, 08:43 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Oct, 07:51 UTC | 18% |
| 4 Oct, 06:20 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Oct, 05:54 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Oct, 05:24 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Oct, 01:07 UTC | 17% |
| 3 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 15% |
| 27 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 14% |
| 26 Sept, 11:29 UTC | 15% |
| 26 Sept, 03:08 UTC | 14% |
| 26 Sept, 02:32 UTC | 14% |
| 26 Sept, 02:02 UTC | 13% |
| 25 Sept, 16:37 UTC | 15% |
| 24 Sept, 16:37 UTC | 16% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 25 Sept 2026. Washington Post published first, on 25 September at 16:13 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? — resolved “No” on 4 Nov 2026. The market resolves based on the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. Senate after the November 3, 2026 midterm elections. The final count includes all regular and special elections scheduled for November 2026, with runoffs determining attribution even if held later.
- Republican Party — resolved “No” on 4 Nov 2026. The outcome is Yes if Republicans hold a majority in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 elections. The outcome is No if they do not. Readers often mistake current polling data for the final election result.
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? — resolved “No” on 4 Nov 2026. The market resolves based on which party holds a majority of voting seats in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 midterm elections. If no party wins a majority, control goes to the party holding half the seats plus the Vice Presidency, or the party of the first President Pro Tempore if the outcome remains ambiguous.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No 3d ago
Wrong market?
- Resolved Republican Party No 3d ago
The market favoured No at 75% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Resolved Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 3d ago
The market favoured No at 77% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
In this story
- Donald Trump
- Republican