NewsMarkets

Markets

Republican Party

Resolved: No 3d ago

The market favoured No at 75% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$62.1M
Total volume$83.0M
Liquidity$83.0M
Resolved1 Feb 2027

Why it moved: −8 points at 01:27 UTC, after Axios: Democrats beat back GOP Senate challenge in N.H. with Pappas win — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.

How the odds moved · Republican Party
0%50%100%0%28 Oct, 06:43 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now0%
4 Nov, 04:40 UTC0%
4 Nov, 04:25 UTC1%
4 Nov, 03:55 UTC1%
4 Nov, 03:26 UTC1%
4 Nov, 02:56 UTC1%
4 Nov, 02:26 UTC1%
4 Nov, 01:57 UTC3%
4 Nov, 01:27 UTC5%
4 Nov, 00:58 UTC14%
4 Nov, 00:29 UTC17%
3 Nov, 23:53 UTC18%
3 Nov, 23:24 UTC25%
3 Nov, 22:56 UTC26%
3 Nov, 22:19 UTC28%
3 Nov, 21:49 UTC27%
3 Nov, 21:26 UTC28%
3 Nov, 19:42 UTC27%
3 Nov, 17:33 UTC28%
3 Nov, 17:17 UTC28%
3 Nov, 16:19 UTC27%
3 Nov, 15:43 UTC25%
3 Nov, 15:29 UTC24%
3 Nov, 14:39 UTC25%
3 Nov, 13:55 UTC24%
3 Nov, 13:25 UTC23%
3 Nov, 12:07 UTC24%
3 Nov, 11:52 UTC25%
3 Nov, 10:45 UTC26%
3 Nov, 10:22 UTC26%
3 Nov, 09:47 UTC26%
3 Nov, 06:01 UTC25%
3 Nov, 05:54 UTC24%
3 Nov, 03:40 UTC25%
3 Nov, 01:54 UTC26%
3 Nov, 00:12 UTC27%
2 Nov, 23:37 UTC27%
2 Nov, 23:08 UTC27%
2 Nov, 22:54 UTC26%
2 Nov, 20:08 UTC26%
2 Nov, 19:54 UTC27%
2 Nov, 12:19 UTC27%
2 Nov, 11:29 UTC28%
2 Nov, 10:50 UTC27%
2 Nov, 08:43 UTC28%
2 Nov, 08:22 UTC28%
2 Nov, 07:54 UTC27%
2 Nov, 06:21 UTC28%
2 Nov, 05:46 UTC28%
2 Nov, 04:54 UTC27%
2 Nov, 02:58 UTC28%
2 Nov, 01:32 UTC29%
1 Nov, 21:19 UTC30%
1 Nov, 18:33 UTC30%
1 Nov, 18:18 UTC29%
1 Nov, 14:23 UTC29%
1 Nov, 13:02 UTC30%
1 Nov, 12:55 UTC29%
1 Nov, 10:28 UTC30%
1 Nov, 09:22 UTC29%
1 Nov, 07:52 UTC30%
1 Nov, 06:57 UTC30%
1 Nov, 06:01 UTC30%
1 Nov, 05:25 UTC29%
1 Nov, 04:01 UTC30%
1 Nov, 03:54 UTC29%
1 Nov, 01:59 UTC30%
1 Nov, 00:14 UTC30%
31 Oct, 23:53 UTC29%
31 Oct, 22:07 UTC30%
31 Oct, 20:14 UTC29%
31 Oct, 19:59 UTC28%
31 Oct, 19:02 UTC29%
31 Oct, 18:48 UTC30%
31 Oct, 18:27 UTC29%
31 Oct, 17:57 UTC30%
31 Oct, 15:22 UTC28%
31 Oct, 14:53 UTC29%
31 Oct, 13:09 UTC30%
31 Oct, 11:28 UTC30%
31 Oct, 09:24 UTC30%
31 Oct, 08:21 UTC30%
31 Oct, 05:47 UTC30%
31 Oct, 04:50 UTC30%
31 Oct, 03:08 UTC30%
31 Oct, 02:54 UTC29%
31 Oct, 00:57 UTC30%
31 Oct, 00:24 UTC30%
30 Oct, 22:54 UTC30%
30 Oct, 21:09 UTC30%
30 Oct, 20:51 UTC29%
30 Oct, 16:32 UTC30%
30 Oct, 15:43 UTC31%
30 Oct, 15:28 UTC30%
30 Oct, 14:07 UTC31%
30 Oct, 13:58 UTC30%
30 Oct, 13:06 UTC31%
30 Oct, 12:59 UTC30%
30 Oct, 12:06 UTC32%
30 Oct, 11:38 UTC33%
30 Oct, 11:10 UTC33%
30 Oct, 09:58 UTC32%
30 Oct, 09:22 UTC33%
30 Oct, 08:55 UTC32%
30 Oct, 08:16 UTC33%
30 Oct, 05:56 UTC33%
30 Oct, 03:30 UTC33%
30 Oct, 03:23 UTC32%
30 Oct, 02:34 UTC33%
30 Oct, 02:16 UTC33%
30 Oct, 01:55 UTC32%
30 Oct, 01:03 UTC33%
30 Oct, 00:56 UTC32%
29 Oct, 16:15 UTC33%
29 Oct, 13:46 UTC34%
29 Oct, 12:32 UTC34%
29 Oct, 12:18 UTC33%
29 Oct, 11:12 UTC33%
29 Oct, 09:26 UTC34%
29 Oct, 07:05 UTC33%
29 Oct, 04:42 UTC33%
29 Oct, 04:14 UTC34%
29 Oct, 02:35 UTC34%
29 Oct, 02:13 UTC35%
29 Oct, 00:41 UTC35%
28 Oct, 23:47 UTC34%
28 Oct, 23:04 UTC35%
28 Oct, 20:37 UTC36%
28 Oct, 17:38 UTC37%
28 Oct, 14:49 UTC37%
28 Oct, 13:24 UTC37%
28 Oct, 12:50 UTC37%
28 Oct, 12:29 UTC36%
28 Oct, 07:56 UTC37%
28 Oct, 07:01 UTC37%
28 Oct, 06:43 UTC36%

What counts

The outcome is Yes if Republicans hold a majority in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 elections. The outcome is No if they do not. Readers often mistake current polling data for the final election result.

Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 0%
  • No 100%

View this market on Kalshi →

Embed this market

Paste this into any web page to show the live odds, with a link back here.

Stories on this market