Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$120k
Total volume$594k
Liquidity$0
Why it moved: −5 points at 01:27 UTC, after The Hill: Michigan live results: 2026 Senate election — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 08:03 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 07:41 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 07:20 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 06:28 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 05:53 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 05:17 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 03:18 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 02:56 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 02:26 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 9% |
| 4 Nov, 00:22 UTC | 8% |
| 3 Nov, 23:53 UTC | 12% |
| 3 Nov, 21:57 UTC | 14% |
| 3 Nov, 17:51 UTC | 13% |
| 3 Nov, 00:33 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Nov, 22:02 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | 16% |
| 2 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Nov, 17:49 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Nov, 16:49 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Nov, 14:49 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Nov, 13:41 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Nov, 05:46 UTC | 16% |
| 31 Oct, 17:34 UTC | 14% |
| 31 Oct, 14:31 UTC | 14% |
| 31 Oct, 12:18 UTC | 14% |
| 31 Oct, 10:06 UTC | 14% |
| 31 Oct, 08:21 UTC | 14% |
| 31 Oct, 06:15 UTC | 14% |
| 31 Oct, 05:19 UTC | 14% |
| 30 Oct, 15:35 UTC | 14% |
| 30 Oct, 01:21 UTC | 15% |
| 30 Oct, 00:49 UTC | 16% |
| 29 Oct, 15:45 UTC | 15% |
| 29 Oct, 15:22 UTC | 16% |
| 29 Oct, 14:40 UTC | 15% |
| 29 Oct, 07:32 UTC | 16% |
| 29 Oct, 06:04 UTC | 15% |
| 29 Oct, 04:35 UTC | 16% |
| 28 Oct, 22:39 UTC | 14% |
What counts
The market resolves based on the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. Senate after the November 3, 2026 midterm elections. The final count includes all regular and special elections scheduled for November 2026, with runoffs determining attribution even if held later.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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