Quad Leaders to Meet in Manila for First Summit Since 2023

The story so far

2 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 20 Oct 2026. News - South China Morning Post published first, on 20 October at 17:13 UTC; Latest articles followed 12h 26m later. The most recent article, from South China Morning Post, appeared on 22 October at 15:00 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: South China Morning Post, Latest articles.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? — the market puts it at 25%, with $6k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 2 Jan 2027. For the Yes outcome, Kim Jong Un must meet Donald Trump in person between January 1 and December 31, 2026. The market resolves to No if this specific encounter does not occur within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the resolution deadline or ignore the requirement for a direct, in-person interaction.
• China — the market puts it at 84%, with $8 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2029. The market resolves to Yes if Trump and Putin meet in China before January 1, 2029. This meeting must be their first encounter after the scheduled August 15, 2025 summit in Alaska. Readers often mistake any recent diplomatic visit for the required event, but only this specific sequence of meetings counts.
• Before Jan 1, 2027 — the market puts it at 4%, with $3 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump and the Supreme Leader of Iran meet in person between now and January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if they do not have such a meeting within that timeframe. Readers often mistake scheduled or virtual interactions for an in-person meeting.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.