Pope Leo XIV becomes first pontiff to vote in US election
The Vatican confirmed the Chicago-born pontiff cast a mail-in ballot for the midterm elections, exercising his right as a US citizen.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
First reported by ABC News, 19 min ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 17 Oct, 08:39 UTC | 3% |
| 16 Oct, 06:50 UTC | 6% |
| 9 Oct, 01:22 UTC | 7% |
| 5 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Sept, 21:54 UTC | 7% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Sept, 11:29 UTC | 5% |
| 24 Sept, 01:27 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Sept, 09:28 UTC | 6% |
| 22 Sept, 09:14 UTC | 3% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch USA respond.
The story so far
12 publishers have covered this in 12 articles since 30 Oct 2026. ABC News published first, on 30 October at 13:22 UTC; Fortune followed 20 min later. The most recent article, from Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera, appeared on 31 October at 01:31 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: ABC News (major outlet), CBS News Politics (major outlet), politico.com (major outlet), Axios (major outlet), The Hill (major outlet), The Guardian (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), Fortune, South China Morning Post, Fox News Politics, BBC News, Deutsche Welle.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- USA — the market puts it at 3%, with $23 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Pope Leo XIV physically enters and stays within the borders of the United States before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake a visit to France for a visit to the United States.
- Pope Leo XIV — the market puts it at 5%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump meets Pope Leo XIV in person between now and January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a visit to France as the resolution event, but only a direct meeting between Trump and the Pope counts.
- Pope Leo XIV — the market puts it at 9%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Pope Leo XIV visits the White House between December 9, 2025, and January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if he does not make that visit within this specific timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked story about France for the relevant event, but only a White House visit counts toward resolution.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on USA at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- ABC NewsPope Leo XIV has become the first pope in history to vote in a US election3%
- FortunePope Leo XIV becomes the first pope to vote in a U.S. general election — he’s requested GOP primary ballots 3 times and Democratic twice3%
- CBS News PoliticsPope Leo becomes first pontiff to vote in a U.S. election3%
- South China Morning PostPope Leo becomes first pope ever to vote in US election, submits mail-in ballot3%
- Fox News PoliticsPope Leo makes history in US election with move confirmed by Vatican3%
- BBC NewsPope Leo XIV becomes first pontiff to vote in a US election3%
- politico.comPope Leo votes in midterm elections in Illinois3%
- AxiosPope Leo XIV becomes first pope to vote in U.S. election3%
- The HillLeo XIV becomes first pope ever to vote in US general election3%
- The GuardianPope Leo votes in US midterms in first known political ballot for any pontiff3%
- Deutsche WelleUS midterms: Pope Leo XIV casts vote by mail3%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraPope Leo becomes first pontiff to vote in US general election3%
- Current odds3%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Pope Leo becomes first pontiff to vote in US general election Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Pope Leo votes in US midterms in first known political ballot for any pontiff The Guardian ·
- Leo XIV becomes first pope ever to vote in US general election The Hill ·
- Pope Leo XIV becomes first pope to vote in U.S. election Axios ·
- Pope Leo votes in midterm elections in Illinois politico.com ·
- Pope Leo becomes first pontiff to vote in a U.S. election CBS News Politics ·
Show 6 more sources
- Pope Leo XIV has become the first pope in history to vote in a US election ABC News ·
- US midterms: Pope Leo XIV casts vote by mail Deutsche Welle
- Pope Leo XIV becomes first pontiff to vote in a US election BBC News
- Pope Leo makes history in US election with move confirmed by Vatican Fox News Politics
- Pope Leo becomes first pope ever to vote in US election, submits mail-in ballot South China Morning Post
- Pope Leo XIV becomes the first pope to vote in a U.S. general election — he’s requested GOP primary ballots 3 times and Democratic twice Fortune
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi USA 3%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Pope Leo XIV 5%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Pope Leo XIV 9%
Does the market have this right?
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In this story
- Pope Leo XIV
- Donald Trump
- Vatican
- Chicago
- United States