Over 60 Million Face Nor'easter as Hawaiians Shelter From Hurricane Nolo

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 25 Sept 2026. CBS News published first, on 25 September at 22:30 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Category 1 or above — the market puts it at 99%, closing 2 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Hurricane Nolo reaches maximum sustained winds of at least 74 mph. It resolves to No if it fails to reach that wind speed threshold. Readers often mistake the impact on Hawaii for the resolution criteria, but only the specific wind speed measurement determines the outcome.
• Before 2027 — the market puts it at 7%, with $5k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if a hurricane with winds of at least 74 mph hits Hawaii during the 2026 season. It resolves to No if no such storm occurs in that specific year. Readers often mistake the linked story's immediate threat for the final resolution, but only a landfall within the 2026 season counts.
• Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027? — the market puts it at 14%, with $94 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if a hurricane with sustained winds of 74 mph or higher makes landfall in Hawaii before December 31, 2026, at 11:59:59 PM ET. The outcome depends on the storm's intensity at the exact moment its center intersects the coastline, as reported by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Readers often mistake the time an advisory is issued for the deadline; only the physical landfall time matters.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.