Category 1 or above
Implied probability 99%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$6k
Liquidity$6k
Resolves2 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 26 Sept, 01:37 UTC | 99% |
| 25 Sept, 01:18 UTC | 0% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Hurricane Nolo reaches maximum sustained winds of at least 74 mph. It resolves to No if it fails to reach that wind speed threshold. Readers often mistake the impact on Hawaii for the resolution criteria, but only the specific wind speed measurement determines the outcome.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%