Oregon Governor Tina Kotek Wins Re-election Against Christine Drazan
Incumbent Democrat Tina Kotek defeats Republican challenger Christine Drazan to secure a second term as Oregon's governor.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 07:56 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 07:20 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 06:50 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 06:28 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 05:53 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 05:02 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 04:33 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 03:18 UTC | 7% |
| 4 Nov, 02:12 UTC | 8% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 19% |
| 3 Nov, 23:46 UTC | 18% |
| 3 Nov, 20:12 UTC | 17% |
| 3 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Nov, 17:51 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 17% |
| 3 Nov, 14:18 UTC | 18% |
| 3 Nov, 09:27 UTC | 17% |
| 3 Nov, 04:43 UTC | 19% |
| 3 Nov, 03:33 UTC | 20% |
| 3 Nov, 02:23 UTC | 19% |
| 2 Nov, 20:30 UTC | 20% |
| 2 Nov, 15:56 UTC | 19% |
| 2 Nov, 14:49 UTC | 18% |
| 2 Nov, 05:24 UTC | 19% |
| 2 Nov, 04:11 UTC | 20% |
| 2 Nov, 02:58 UTC | 19% |
| 2 Nov, 00:33 UTC | 20% |
| 1 Nov, 20:57 UTC | 19% |
| 1 Nov, 19:45 UTC | 18% |
| 1 Nov, 11:19 UTC | 19% |
| 1 Nov, 07:45 UTC | 20% |
| 1 Nov, 04:15 UTC | 19% |
| 31 Oct, 14:08 UTC | 20% |
| 31 Oct, 11:42 UTC | 21% |
| 31 Oct, 08:07 UTC | 20% |
| 31 Oct, 06:57 UTC | 21% |
| 31 Oct, 04:35 UTC | 20% |
| 30 Oct, 18:37 UTC | 21% |
| 30 Oct, 17:20 UTC | 20% |
| 30 Oct, 16:10 UTC | 21% |
| 30 Oct, 13:42 UTC | 20% |
| 30 Oct, 11:10 UTC | 21% |
| 30 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 22% |
| 30 Oct, 08:41 UTC | 21% |
| 30 Oct, 05:00 UTC | 22% |
| 29 Oct, 19:00 UTC | 21% |
| 29 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 20% |
| 29 Oct, 16:35 UTC | 21% |
| 29 Oct, 14:07 UTC | 20% |
| 29 Oct, 10:26 UTC | 21% |
| 27 Oct, 18:41 UTC | 20% |
| 27 Oct, 17:28 UTC | 19% |
| 27 Oct, 07:37 UTC | 20% |
| 27 Oct, 05:06 UTC | 19% |
| 27 Oct, 03:52 UTC | 20% |
| 26 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 21% |
| 26 Oct, 20:32 UTC | 19% |
| 26 Oct, 19:15 UTC | 20% |
| 26 Oct, 16:51 UTC | 19% |
| 26 Oct, 09:17 UTC | 20% |
| 26 Oct, 06:51 UTC | 19% |
| 26 Oct, 05:36 UTC | 20% |
| 25 Oct, 22:37 UTC | 21% |
| 25 Oct, 21:21 UTC | 20% |
| 25 Oct, 17:35 UTC | 21% |
| 25 Oct, 16:21 UTC | 20% |
| 25 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 21% |
| 25 Oct, 07:11 UTC | 20% |
| 25 Oct, 03:16 UTC | 21% |
| 25 Oct, 02:00 UTC | 20% |
| 24 Oct, 22:51 UTC | 19% |
| 24 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 18% |
| 24 Oct, 20:23 UTC | 20% |
| 24 Oct, 14:12 UTC | 19% |
| 24 Oct, 13:00 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Oct, 19:57 UTC | 19% |
| 23 Oct, 18:40 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 17% |
| 23 Oct, 11:06 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Oct, 06:11 UTC | 19% |
| 23 Oct, 04:57 UTC | 17% |
| 23 Oct, 03:41 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 19% |
| 22 Oct, 14:17 UTC | 18% |
| 22 Oct, 13:04 UTC | 17% |
| 22 Oct, 10:31 UTC | 19% |
| 22 Oct, 08:38 UTC | 18% |
| 2 Oct, 20:11 UTC | 29% |
| 2 Oct, 18:55 UTC | 30% |
| 2 Oct, 17:37 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Oct, 15:02 UTC | 29% |
| 2 Oct, 12:30 UTC | 31% |
| 2 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 30% |
| 2 Oct, 08:32 UTC | 32% |
| 2 Oct, 07:15 UTC | 31% |
| 2 Oct, 05:58 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Oct, 05:42 UTC | 22% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 4 Nov 2026. The Hill published first, on 4 November at 04:12 UTC; CBS News Politics followed 2h 17m later. The most recent article, from CBS News Politics, appeared on 4 November at 06:29 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The Hill (major outlet), CBS News Politics (major outlet).
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Christine Drazan — resolved “No” on 4 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if a Republican is inaugurated as Oregon's governor after the 2026 election. It resolves to No if any other candidate wins or takes office. Readers often mistake the linked story about Governor Kotek for the final result, but the resolution depends solely on the outcome of the 2026 election.
- Kotek, 5+ pts — the market puts it at 96%, with $33 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election by a margin of five percentage points or more. It resolves to No if that candidate wins by less than five points or loses the race entirely. Readers often mistake the specific candidate for the required party, but the rule depends solely on the Democratic Party's victory margin.
- Drazan, 2+ pts — resolved “No” on 4 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if the Republican candidate wins the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election by a margin of at least two percentage points. It resolves to No if the Republican candidate wins by less than two percentage points or loses the race entirely.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Christine Drazan No 3d ago
The market favoured No at 82% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Kotek, 5+ pts 96% +4
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Drazan, 2+ pts No 3d ago
The market favoured No at 84% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
Have your say
Your call. How does this end?
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In this story
- Tina Kotek
- Christine Drazan