Drazan, 2+ pts
The market favoured No at 84% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 2%
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$3k
Liquidity$3k
Resolved3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 07:04 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 06:00 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 11% |
| 3 Nov, 04:13 UTC | 9% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Republican candidate wins the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election by a margin of at least two percentage points. It resolves to No if the Republican candidate wins by less than two percentage points or loses the race entirely.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%