Christine Drazan
The market favoured No at 82% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$950k
Total volume$1.5M
Liquidity$1.5M
Resolved3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 07:56 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 07:20 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 06:50 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 06:28 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 05:53 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 05:02 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 04:33 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 03:18 UTC | 7% |
| 4 Nov, 02:12 UTC | 8% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 19% |
| 3 Nov, 23:46 UTC | 18% |
| 3 Nov, 20:12 UTC | 17% |
| 3 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Nov, 17:51 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 17% |
| 3 Nov, 14:18 UTC | 18% |
| 3 Nov, 09:27 UTC | 17% |
| 3 Nov, 04:43 UTC | 19% |
| 3 Nov, 03:33 UTC | 20% |
| 3 Nov, 02:23 UTC | 19% |
| 2 Nov, 20:30 UTC | 20% |
| 2 Nov, 15:56 UTC | 19% |
| 2 Nov, 14:49 UTC | 18% |
| 2 Nov, 05:24 UTC | 19% |
| 2 Nov, 04:11 UTC | 20% |
| 2 Nov, 02:58 UTC | 19% |
| 2 Nov, 00:33 UTC | 20% |
| 1 Nov, 20:57 UTC | 19% |
| 1 Nov, 19:45 UTC | 18% |
| 1 Nov, 11:19 UTC | 19% |
| 1 Nov, 07:45 UTC | 20% |
| 1 Nov, 04:15 UTC | 19% |
| 31 Oct, 14:08 UTC | 20% |
| 31 Oct, 11:42 UTC | 21% |
| 31 Oct, 08:07 UTC | 20% |
| 31 Oct, 06:57 UTC | 21% |
| 31 Oct, 04:35 UTC | 20% |
| 30 Oct, 18:37 UTC | 21% |
| 30 Oct, 17:20 UTC | 20% |
| 30 Oct, 16:10 UTC | 21% |
| 30 Oct, 13:42 UTC | 20% |
| 30 Oct, 11:10 UTC | 21% |
| 30 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 22% |
| 30 Oct, 08:41 UTC | 21% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a Republican is inaugurated as Oregon's governor after the 2026 election. It resolves to No if any other candidate wins or takes office. Readers often mistake the linked story about Governor Kotek for the final result, but the resolution depends solely on the outcome of the 2026 election.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%