NYC Mayor Mamdani Rides Subway With Irish PM Micheal Martin in New York
New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani shared a video of himself riding the subway with Irish Prime Minister Micheal Martin during UN week.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 79% |
| 5 Oct, 19:42 UTC | 79% |
| 5 Oct, 01:03 UTC | 82% |
| 4 Oct, 20:38 UTC | 76% |
| 4 Oct, 20:05 UTC | 79% |
| 4 Oct, 17:34 UTC | 82% |
| 4 Oct, 15:19 UTC | 80% |
| 4 Oct, 02:43 UTC | 83% |
| 3 Oct, 03:44 UTC | 78% |
| 2 Oct, 22:50 UTC | 79% |
| 2 Oct, 21:29 UTC | 78% |
| 2 Oct, 17:45 UTC | 79% |
| 2 Oct, 15:23 UTC | 78% |
| 2 Oct, 07:55 UTC | 80% |
| 2 Oct, 05:31 UTC | 81% |
| 2 Oct, 03:15 UTC | 78% |
| 2 Oct, 02:05 UTC | 76% |
| 2 Oct, 00:43 UTC | 71% |
| 2 Oct, 00:16 UTC | 80% |
| 1 Oct, 21:09 UTC | 79% |
| 1 Oct, 16:44 UTC | 81% |
| 1 Oct, 13:38 UTC | 78% |
| 1 Oct, 06:01 UTC | 76% |
| 1 Oct, 03:48 UTC | 78% |
| 1 Oct, 03:27 UTC | 80% |
| 1 Oct, 02:29 UTC | 79% |
| 1 Oct, 01:20 UTC | 71% |
| 30 Sept, 22:03 UTC | 74% |
| 30 Sept, 19:53 UTC | 72% |
| 30 Sept, 19:24 UTC | 80% |
| 30 Sept, 17:51 UTC | 78% |
| 30 Sept, 15:00 UTC | 81% |
| 30 Sept, 06:55 UTC | 80% |
| 30 Sept, 05:02 UTC | 89% |
| 30 Sept, 04:55 UTC | 75% |
| 30 Sept, 02:28 UTC | 70% |
| 30 Sept, 01:52 UTC | 74% |
| 30 Sept, 01:23 UTC | 73% |
| 29 Sept, 22:30 UTC | 69% |
| 29 Sept, 21:32 UTC | 75% |
| 29 Sept, 19:02 UTC | 74% |
| 29 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 73% |
| 29 Sept, 14:15 UTC | 69% |
| 29 Sept, 09:59 UTC | 67% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 69% |
| 28 Sept, 10:28 UTC | 70% |
| 28 Sept, 04:53 UTC | 71% |
| 28 Sept, 03:57 UTC | 71% |
| 28 Sept, 02:15 UTC | 71% |
| 28 Sept, 01:19 UTC | 69% |
| 27 Sept, 21:50 UTC | 70% |
| 27 Sept, 18:51 UTC | 67% |
| 27 Sept, 18:06 UTC | 70% |
| 27 Sept, 17:31 UTC | 69% |
| 27 Sept, 16:23 UTC | 68% |
| 27 Sept, 15:45 UTC | 65% |
| 27 Sept, 14:45 UTC | 71% |
| 27 Sept, 08:42 UTC | 66% |
| 27 Sept, 05:23 UTC | 71% |
| 27 Sept, 03:39 UTC | 64% |
| 26 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 71% |
| 26 Sept, 18:43 UTC | 70% |
| 26 Sept, 18:26 UTC | 62% |
| 26 Sept, 02:32 UTC | 71% |
| 25 Sept, 20:46 UTC | 70% |
| 25 Sept, 11:56 UTC | 66% |
| 24 Sept, 07:50 UTC | 60% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 4 Oct 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 4 October at 00:07 UTC.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Zohran Mamdani — the market puts it at 79%, with $29 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 6 Nov 2030. The market resolves to Yes if Zohran Mamdani wins the next New York City mayoral election. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about planting an olive tree for the actual election result.
- Before Jan 1, 2030 — the market puts it at 41%, with $1 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2030. The market resolves to Yes if Zohran Mamdani stops serving as Mayor of New York City before January 1, 2030. It resolves to No if he remains in office through that date. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a subway ride for an event that changes his mayoral status.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Zohran Mamdani 79% +3
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Before Jan 1, 2030 41% +8
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Zohran Mamdani
- Micheal Martin