NYC Mayor Calls for ICE Removal After Shooting Near Child
Mayor Zohran Mamdani demands President Trump remove federal agents from New York City after an officer shot a man during an arrest with a child present, while DHS defends the action.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 85% |
| 12 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 85% |
| 12 Oct, 13:22 UTC | 83% |
| 12 Oct, 02:59 UTC | 86% |
| 11 Oct, 17:39 UTC | 84% |
| 11 Oct, 13:51 UTC | 86% |
| 11 Oct, 09:46 UTC | 85% |
| 10 Oct, 19:11 UTC | 83% |
| 10 Oct, 17:21 UTC | 81% |
| 10 Oct, 02:39 UTC | 86% |
| 9 Oct, 04:00 UTC | 85% |
| 9 Oct, 01:29 UTC | 84% |
| 8 Oct, 23:23 UTC | 83% |
| 8 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 85% |
| 8 Oct, 20:12 UTC | 85% |
| 8 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 84% |
| 8 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 83% |
| 8 Oct, 11:18 UTC | 84% |
| 8 Oct, 04:08 UTC | 80% |
| 8 Oct, 03:08 UTC | 79% |
| 8 Oct, 02:34 UTC | 86% |
| 8 Oct, 01:42 UTC | 79% |
| 7 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 86% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 85% |
| 6 Oct, 08:04 UTC | 81% |
| 5 Oct, 19:42 UTC | 79% |
| 5 Oct, 01:03 UTC | 82% |
| 4 Oct, 20:38 UTC | 76% |
| 4 Oct, 20:05 UTC | 79% |
| 4 Oct, 17:34 UTC | 82% |
| 4 Oct, 15:19 UTC | 80% |
| 4 Oct, 02:43 UTC | 83% |
| 3 Oct, 03:44 UTC | 78% |
| 2 Oct, 22:50 UTC | 79% |
| 2 Oct, 21:29 UTC | 78% |
| 2 Oct, 17:45 UTC | 79% |
| 2 Oct, 15:23 UTC | 78% |
| 2 Oct, 07:55 UTC | 80% |
| 2 Oct, 05:31 UTC | 81% |
| 2 Oct, 03:15 UTC | 78% |
| 2 Oct, 02:05 UTC | 76% |
| 2 Oct, 00:43 UTC | 71% |
| 2 Oct, 00:16 UTC | 80% |
| 1 Oct, 21:09 UTC | 79% |
| 1 Oct, 16:44 UTC | 81% |
| 1 Oct, 13:38 UTC | 78% |
| 1 Oct, 06:01 UTC | 76% |
| 1 Oct, 03:48 UTC | 78% |
| 1 Oct, 03:27 UTC | 80% |
| 1 Oct, 02:29 UTC | 79% |
| 1 Oct, 01:20 UTC | 71% |
| 30 Sept, 22:03 UTC | 74% |
| 30 Sept, 19:53 UTC | 72% |
| 30 Sept, 19:24 UTC | 80% |
| 30 Sept, 17:51 UTC | 78% |
| 30 Sept, 15:00 UTC | 81% |
| 30 Sept, 06:55 UTC | 80% |
| 30 Sept, 05:02 UTC | 89% |
| 30 Sept, 04:55 UTC | 75% |
| 30 Sept, 02:28 UTC | 70% |
| 30 Sept, 01:52 UTC | 74% |
| 30 Sept, 01:23 UTC | 73% |
| 29 Sept, 22:30 UTC | 69% |
| 29 Sept, 21:32 UTC | 75% |
| 29 Sept, 19:02 UTC | 74% |
| 29 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 73% |
| 29 Sept, 14:15 UTC | 69% |
| 29 Sept, 09:59 UTC | 67% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 69% |
| 28 Sept, 10:28 UTC | 70% |
| 28 Sept, 04:53 UTC | 71% |
| 28 Sept, 03:57 UTC | 71% |
| 28 Sept, 02:15 UTC | 71% |
| 28 Sept, 01:19 UTC | 69% |
| 27 Sept, 21:50 UTC | 70% |
| 27 Sept, 18:51 UTC | 67% |
| 27 Sept, 18:06 UTC | 70% |
| 27 Sept, 17:31 UTC | 69% |
| 27 Sept, 16:23 UTC | 68% |
| 27 Sept, 15:45 UTC | 65% |
| 27 Sept, 14:45 UTC | 71% |
| 27 Sept, 08:42 UTC | 66% |
| 27 Sept, 05:23 UTC | 71% |
| 27 Sept, 03:39 UTC | 64% |
| 26 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 71% |
| 26 Sept, 18:43 UTC | 70% |
| 26 Sept, 18:26 UTC | 62% |
| 26 Sept, 02:32 UTC | 71% |
| 25 Sept, 20:46 UTC | 70% |
| 25 Sept, 11:56 UTC | 66% |
| 24 Sept, 07:50 UTC | 60% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Zohran Mamdani respond.
The story so far
9 publishers have covered this in 18 articles since 8 Oct 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 8 October at 14:07 UTC; Fox News Politics followed 7h 25m later. The most recent article, from politico.com, appeared on 9 October at 20:04 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), politico.com (major outlet), Bloomberg.com (major outlet), The Hill (major outlet), Fox News Politics, Deutsche Welle, Times of India, South China Morning Post, France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Zohran Mamdani — the market puts it at 85%, with $102 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 6 Nov 2030. The market resolves to Yes if Zohran Mamdani wins the next New York City mayoral election. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about planting an olive tree for the actual election result.
- Before Jan 1, 2030 — the market puts it at 32%, closing 1 Jan 2030. The market resolves to Yes if Zohran Mamdani stops serving as Mayor of New York City before January 1, 2030. It resolves to No if he remains in office through that date. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a subway ride for an event that changes his mayoral status.
- Zohran / Mamdani — resolved “No” on 11 Oct 2026. The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump explicitly names Zohran Mamdani during his Midterm Rally in Syracuse, New York, which was originally scheduled for October 9, 2026. The outcome is No if he does not mention Mamdani at that specific event. Readers often mistakenly believe that any public comment or rally outside of this designated event counts toward the resolution.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Zohran Mamdani at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraNew York Mayor Mamdani under fire for attending October 7 vigil84%
- Fox News PoliticsMamdani dined at NYC restaurant linked to anti-Israel menu after being booed at Oct. 7 vigil: report85%▲1 points since the previous source
- Deutsche WelleNew York Mayor Mamdani condemns 'unconscionable' shooting as he demands that Trump end ICE raids in the city83%▼2 points since the previous source
- Deutsche WelleMan injured after New York shooting involving ICE83%
- politico.comICE shooting in NYC prompts Mamdani outreach to Trump83%
- Times of India'ICE out of our neighbourhoods’: Shooting of man sparks protests in New York84%▲1 points since the previous source
- South China Morning PostNew York mayor urges Trump to remove ICE after driver with child in car is shot84%
- Bloomberg.comMamdani Addresses ICE Shooting, Fort Hood Execution to be Live85%▲1 points since the previous source
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesNew York mayor calls for ICE removal after man shot with 5-year-old nearby85%
- Bloomberg.comLondon's Big IPO, Mamdani Calls For End To ICE In NYC, More85%
Show 8 later sources
- The Hill NewsMamdani: ‘No explanation’ for ICE shooting man near child in New York85%
- The Hill NewsLive updates: Mamdani fumes over NYC ICE shooting; Trump to make blue-state stop in midterm blitz85%
- Bloomberg MarketsNYC Mayor Mamdani Says ICE 'Makes Us Less Safe'85%
- Fox News PoliticsMullin calls Mamdani's anti-ICE rhetoric 'dangerous' following New York shooting85%
- Bloomberg.comTrump Officials Clash With Mamdani Over ICE Shooting in NYC85%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraDHS defends ICE shooting in NYC, says officers believed they were in danger85%
- The HillMullin rails against Mamdani: 'His words are dangerous and incite hostility'85%
- politico.comTrump administration rebuffs Mamdani’s demand for ICE enforcement freeze after shooting85%
- Current odds85%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Trump administration rebuffs Mamdani’s demand for ICE enforcement freeze after shooting politico.com ·
- Mullin rails against Mamdani: 'His words are dangerous and incite hostility' The Hill ·
- DHS defends ICE shooting in NYC, says officers believed they were in danger Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Trump Officials Clash With Mamdani Over ICE Shooting in NYC Bloomberg.com ·
- NYC Mayor Mamdani Says ICE 'Makes Us Less Safe' Bloomberg Markets ·
- Live updates: Mamdani fumes over NYC ICE shooting; Trump to make blue-state stop in midterm blitz The Hill News ·
Show 12 more sources
- Mamdani: ‘No explanation’ for ICE shooting man near child in New York The Hill News ·
- London's Big IPO, Mamdani Calls For End To ICE In NYC, More Bloomberg.com ·
- Mamdani Addresses ICE Shooting, Fort Hood Execution to be Live Bloomberg.com ·
- ICE shooting in NYC prompts Mamdani outreach to Trump politico.com ·
- New York Mayor Mamdani under fire for attending October 7 vigil Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Mullin calls Mamdani's anti-ICE rhetoric 'dangerous' following New York shooting Fox News Politics
- New York mayor calls for ICE removal after man shot with 5-year-old nearby France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
- New York mayor urges Trump to remove ICE after driver with child in car is shot South China Morning Post
- 'ICE out of our neighbourhoods’: Shooting of man sparks protests in New York Times of India
- Man injured after New York shooting involving ICE Deutsche Welle
- New York Mayor Mamdani condemns 'unconscionable' shooting as he demands that Trump end ICE raids in the city Deutsche Welle
- Mamdani dined at NYC restaurant linked to anti-Israel menu after being booed at Oct. 7 vigil: report Fox News Politics
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Zohran Mamdani 85% +1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Before Jan 1, 2030 32%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Zohran / Mamdani No 27d ago
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Zohran Mamdani
- ICE
- Markwayne Mullin
- Donald Trump