Zohran / Mamdani
Implied probability 1%−77
24-hour volume$51k
Total volume$65k
Liquidity$65k
Resolves23 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 10 Oct, 01:53 UTC | 7% |
| 10 Oct, 01:26 UTC | 29% |
| 10 Oct, 00:59 UTC | 50% |
| 10 Oct, 00:19 UTC | 73% |
| 9 Oct, 23:59 UTC | 73% |
| 9 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 72% |
| 9 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 73% |
| 9 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 72% |
| 9 Oct, 21:44 UTC | 74% |
| 9 Oct, 21:16 UTC | 75% |
| 9 Oct, 20:55 UTC | 76% |
| 9 Oct, 20:20 UTC | 76% |
| 9 Oct, 18:35 UTC | 76% |
| 9 Oct, 18:20 UTC | 75% |
| 9 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 75% |
| 9 Oct, 17:25 UTC | 77% |
| 9 Oct, 16:44 UTC | 79% |
| 9 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 82% |
| 9 Oct, 14:09 UTC | 82% |
| 9 Oct, 13:28 UTC | 79% |
| 9 Oct, 12:52 UTC | 78% |
| 9 Oct, 12:09 UTC | 78% |
| 9 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 78% |
| 9 Oct, 11:29 UTC | 77% |
| 9 Oct, 10:40 UTC | 77% |
| 9 Oct, 10:08 UTC | 76% |
| 9 Oct, 06:56 UTC | 77% |
| 9 Oct, 05:51 UTC | 77% |
| 9 Oct, 05:13 UTC | 75% |
| 9 Oct, 04:33 UTC | 75% |
| 9 Oct, 03:40 UTC | 76% |
| 9 Oct, 03:20 UTC | 77% |
| 9 Oct, 01:42 UTC | 75% |
| 9 Oct, 01:16 UTC | 77% |
| 9 Oct, 00:16 UTC | 76% |
| 8 Oct, 23:42 UTC | 78% |
| 8 Oct, 23:10 UTC | 77% |
| 8 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 76% |
| 8 Oct, 22:02 UTC | 74% |
| 8 Oct, 21:13 UTC | 73% |
| 8 Oct, 20:54 UTC | 71% |
| 8 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 71% |
| 8 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 70% |
| 8 Oct, 19:10 UTC | 72% |
| 8 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 71% |
| 8 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 72% |
| 8 Oct, 17:01 UTC | 73% |
| 8 Oct, 16:30 UTC | 71% |
| 8 Oct, 15:13 UTC | 73% |
| 8 Oct, 14:44 UTC | 74% |
| 7 Oct, 13:33 UTC | 65% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump explicitly names Zohran Mamdani during his Midterm Rally in Syracuse, New York, which was originally scheduled for October 9, 2026. The outcome is No if he does not mention Mamdani at that specific event. Readers often mistakenly believe that any public comment or rally outside of this designated event counts toward the resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%