South Korea Proposes Military Talks With North Korea Amid Rising Border Tensions
Seoul seeks dialogue to resolve border disputes after Pyongyang launched a projectile and moved howitzers near the frontier.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 28 more published before price tracking began
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 10:42 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 09:58 UTC | 2% |
| 6 Nov, 06:56 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 23:29 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 19:14 UTC | 2% |
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| 5 Nov, 09:55 UTC | 2% |
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| 4 Nov, 15:58 UTC | 3% |
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| 4 Nov, 05:17 UTC | 3% |
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| 3 Nov, 03:40 UTC | 2% |
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| 2 Nov, 00:12 UTC | 3% |
| 1 Nov, 23:43 UTC | 3% |
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| 1 Nov, 11:40 UTC | 3% |
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| 1 Nov, 03:33 UTC | 3% |
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| 1 Nov, 01:10 UTC | 3% |
| 31 Oct, 23:31 UTC | 3% |
| 31 Oct, 19:32 UTC | 3% |
| 31 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 3% |
| 31 Oct, 18:55 UTC | 3% |
| 31 Oct, 15:15 UTC | 3% |
| 31 Oct, 09:24 UTC | 3% |
| 31 Oct, 06:15 UTC | 4% |
| 31 Oct, 04:35 UTC | 4% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? respond.
The story so far
12 publishers have covered this in 44 articles since 20 Oct 2026. Latest articles published first, on 20 October at 03:31 UTC; CBS News followed 59h 12m later. The most recent article, from Deutsche Welle, appeared on 5 November at 11:14 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: CBS News (major outlet), The New York Times (major outlet), ABC News (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), News Feed (major outlet), Latest articles, businessinsider.com, Deutsche Welle, South China Morning Post, Sky News, France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines, Times of India.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? — the market puts it at 2%, with $535 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Kim Jong Un stops being Supreme Leader at any point before December 31, 2026, including through resignation, removal, detention, or permanent inability to perform his duties. A public announcement of his departure before the deadline triggers an immediate Yes resolution, even if the change takes effect later.
- Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? — the market puts it at 3%, with $67 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 2 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump physically enters North Korea’s land or sea territory between January 1 and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if he does not make such a physical entry within that specific window. Readers often mistakenly count flights over the country's airspace as a visit, but only actual entry onto the territory counts.
- Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un by November 30, 2026? — the market puts it at 4%, with $75 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un meet in person and interact before November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if that specific encounter does not occur within the deadline. Readers often mistake general diplomatic talks or border tensions for a direct meeting between the two leaders.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Latest articlesSeoul vows ‘resolute punishment’ after North Korea threatens new border measures—
- Latest articlesNorth Korea’s Kim Yo Jong warns South Korea, says border loudspeakers to be ready within days—
- CBS NewsRising tension on the Korean border fuels concern—
- businessinsider.comWorld’s 31st-strongest military threatens to “mercilessly eliminate” US-backed South Korean forces as its military ties raise concerns for Africa—
- The New York TimesArms Race Intensifies in Korea as the North Is Emboldened by Russia Alliance—
- ABC NewsSouth Korea proposes military talks with North Korea to calm rising border tensions—
- Deutsche WelleSouth Korea proposes military talks with North again—
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraSouth Korea invites North for military talks over border—
- South China Morning PostKim Jong-un urges North Korean military to become ‘strongest armed forces in the world’—
- News FeedKim reaffirms ties with China amid worries over Russian friendship—
Show 34 later sources
- South China Morning PostNorth Korea tells UN South ‘fabricated’ border landmine blast—
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraSeoul ‘fabricated” landmine blast, North Korea tells UN in letter—
- Latest articlesTensions high as North Korea howitzer spotted near South Korean border—
- Sky NewsNorth Korean howitzer guns spotted close to border with South Korea—
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraNorth Korean howitzer guns spotted close to border with South Korea—
- The New York TimesTensions Between North and South Korea Stem From Decade-Old Border Dispute—
- South China Morning PostWhy is the US reluctant to give South Korea wartime control of its troops?—
- News FeedSouth Korean ‘tilt’ towards Russia alarms European allies—
- businessinsider.comU.S., UK, Canada and EU turn up pressure on North Korea to surrender nuclear arms as 2 African nations have also condemned Pyongyang—
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesNorth Korea tests attack drones as Kim calls for 'absolute superiority'—
- Latest articlesKim urges drone dominance as North Korea fires missiles and rockets—
- ABC NewsNorth Korea's Kim calls for rapid expansion of drone technology and observes weapons tests—
- Deutsche WelleSeoul fears being left out as US reaches out to North Korea—
- Deutsche WelleSeoul fears being slighted as US reaches out to North Korea—
- Deutsche WelleSeoul fears being sidelined as US reaches out to North Korea—
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraSwiss foreign minister talks political ties on rare visit to North Korea—
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraKim Jong Un calls for North Korea’s drone technology superiority—
- South China Morning PostKim Jong-un urges drone expansion as North Korea showcases new unmanned tech—
- Latest articlesU.S., South Korea and Japan vow ‘complete’ denuclearization of North Korea4%
- South China Morning PostUS, South Korea and Japan reaffirm North Korea denuclearisation stance4%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraUS, South Korea, Japan call for ‘complete denuclearisation’ of North Korea4%
- South China Morning PostIn South Korea, Lee’s overseas trips fuel familiar battle over presidential perks3%
- Times of India'Nuclear war rehearsal': North Korea to strengthen deterrent after US-South Korea drills3%
- Latest articlesSouth Korea to double spending on AI and chips in 20273%
- Deutsche WelleSouth Korea to pour billions into AI3%
- News - South China Morning PostHow South Korea can play pivotal role in Philippines’ military modernisation drive3%
- ABC NewsNorth Korea launches unidentified projectile toward the sea, South Korea says3%
- Latest articlesNorth Korea fires off ‘unidentified projectile’ in latest weapons test3%
- Latest articlesNorth Korea pours cold water on Kim-Trump meeting as APEC summit looms3%
- Asia - South China Morning PostWhy North Korea’s Kim sees no need for another Trump ‘photo-op summit’3%
- Asia - South China Morning PostSouth Korea wants a cyber tsar, but can it beat complacency?2%
- Asia - South China Morning PostNorth Korea digs in for US stand-off as Democratic midterm wins dim summit hopes2%
- South China Morning PostChinese and North Korean officials step up diplomatic drive in wake of Kim Jong-un visit2%
- Deutsche WelleNorth Korea tells EU to 'mind its own business' on human rights2%
- Current odds2%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- North Korea launches unidentified projectile toward the sea, South Korea says ABC News ·
- US, South Korea, Japan call for ‘complete denuclearisation’ of North Korea Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Kim Jong Un calls for North Korea’s drone technology superiority Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Swiss foreign minister talks political ties on rare visit to North Korea Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- North Korea's Kim calls for rapid expansion of drone technology and observes weapons tests ABC News ·
- South Korean ‘tilt’ towards Russia alarms European allies News Feed ·
Show 38 more sources
- Tensions Between North and South Korea Stem From Decade-Old Border Dispute The New York Times ·
- North Korean howitzer guns spotted close to border with South Korea Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Seoul ‘fabricated” landmine blast, North Korea tells UN in letter Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Kim reaffirms ties with China amid worries over Russian friendship News Feed ·
- South Korea invites North for military talks over border Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- South Korea proposes military talks with North Korea to calm rising border tensions ABC News ·
- Arms Race Intensifies in Korea as the North Is Emboldened by Russia Alliance The New York Times ·
- Rising tension on the Korean border fuels concern CBS News ·
- North Korea tells EU to 'mind its own business' on human rights Deutsche Welle
- Chinese and North Korean officials step up diplomatic drive in wake of Kim Jong-un visit South China Morning Post
- North Korea digs in for US stand-off as Democratic midterm wins dim summit hopes Asia - South China Morning Post
- South Korea wants a cyber tsar, but can it beat complacency? Asia - South China Morning Post
- Why North Korea’s Kim sees no need for another Trump ‘photo-op summit’ Asia - South China Morning Post
- North Korea pours cold water on Kim-Trump meeting as APEC summit looms Latest articles
- North Korea fires off ‘unidentified projectile’ in latest weapons test Latest articles
- How South Korea can play pivotal role in Philippines’ military modernisation drive News - South China Morning Post
- South Korea to pour billions into AI Deutsche Welle
- South Korea to double spending on AI and chips in 2027 Latest articles
- 'Nuclear war rehearsal': North Korea to strengthen deterrent after US-South Korea drills Times of India
- In South Korea, Lee’s overseas trips fuel familiar battle over presidential perks South China Morning Post
- US, South Korea and Japan reaffirm North Korea denuclearisation stance South China Morning Post
- U.S., South Korea and Japan vow ‘complete’ denuclearization of North Korea Latest articles
- Kim Jong-un urges drone expansion as North Korea showcases new unmanned tech South China Morning Post
- Seoul fears being left out as US reaches out to North Korea Deutsche Welle
- Seoul fears being slighted as US reaches out to North Korea Deutsche Welle
- Seoul fears being sidelined as US reaches out to North Korea Deutsche Welle
- Kim urges drone dominance as North Korea fires missiles and rockets Latest articles
- North Korea tests attack drones as Kim calls for 'absolute superiority' France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
- U.S., UK, Canada and EU turn up pressure on North Korea to surrender nuclear arms as 2 African nations have also condemned Pyongyang businessinsider.com
- Why is the US reluctant to give South Korea wartime control of its troops? South China Morning Post
- North Korean howitzer guns spotted close to border with South Korea Sky News
- Tensions high as North Korea howitzer spotted near South Korean border Latest articles
- North Korea tells UN South ‘fabricated’ border landmine blast South China Morning Post
- Kim Jong-un urges North Korean military to become ‘strongest armed forces in the world’ South China Morning Post
- South Korea proposes military talks with North again Deutsche Welle
- World’s 31st-strongest military threatens to “mercilessly eliminate” US-backed South Korean forces as its military ties raise concerns for Africa businessinsider.com
- North Korea’s Kim Yo Jong warns South Korea, says border loudspeakers to be ready within days Latest articles
- Seoul vows ‘resolute punishment’ after North Korea threatens new border measures Latest articles
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Polymarket Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? 2%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? 3% −2
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un by November 30, 2026? 4% +1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- North Korea
- South Korea
- Kim Jong Un
- Donald Trump
- Japan
- Switzerland