Brock Purdy Emerges as MVP Frontrunner Amid Kalshi Betting Surge
The San Francisco 49ers quarterback gains early MVP buzz and leads betting markets after a dominant start to the season.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 16% |
| 1 Oct, 20:42 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Oct, 20:02 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 15% |
| 1 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Oct, 18:36 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Oct, 17:22 UTC | 15% |
| 1 Oct, 16:44 UTC | 15% |
| 1 Oct, 16:21 UTC | 15% |
| 1 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 15% |
| 1 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 15% |
| 1 Oct, 14:21 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Oct, 13:06 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Oct, 11:53 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Oct, 11:18 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Oct, 10:57 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Oct, 10:06 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Oct, 09:23 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Oct, 08:11 UTC | 15% |
| 1 Oct, 07:09 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Oct, 06:55 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Oct, 01:20 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Oct, 00:08 UTC | 16% |
| 30 Sept, 23:32 UTC | 16% |
| 30 Sept, 23:13 UTC | 16% |
| 30 Sept, 22:59 UTC | 16% |
| 30 Sept, 20:46 UTC | 16% |
| 30 Sept, 19:09 UTC | 16% |
| 30 Sept, 18:46 UTC | 16% |
| 30 Sept, 16:36 UTC | 16% |
| 30 Sept, 16:26 UTC | 16% |
| 30 Sept, 13:38 UTC | 16% |
| 30 Sept, 13:08 UTC | 16% |
| 30 Sept, 12:53 UTC | 16% |
| 30 Sept, 11:47 UTC | 16% |
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| 30 Sept, 06:41 UTC | 16% |
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| 29 Sept, 23:54 UTC | 16% |
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| 29 Sept, 20:49 UTC | 16% |
| 29 Sept, 20:26 UTC | 16% |
| 29 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 15% |
| 29 Sept, 19:25 UTC | 15% |
| 24 Sept, 00:02 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Sept, 23:55 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Sept, 23:27 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Sept, 22:40 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Sept, 22:12 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Sept, 21:50 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Sept, 21:29 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Sept, 20:55 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Sept, 20:27 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Sept, 19:47 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Sept, 19:21 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Sept, 18:25 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 11% |
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| 23 Sept, 16:35 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Sept, 15:37 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Sept, 14:48 UTC | 11% |
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| 23 Sept, 13:56 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Sept, 13:28 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Sept, 12:45 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Sept, 12:23 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Sept, 11:51 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Sept, 10:42 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Sept, 10:24 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Sept, 09:28 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Sept, 08:53 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Sept, 07:51 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Sept, 06:56 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Sept, 06:28 UTC | 11% |
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| 23 Sept, 05:19 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Sept, 04:42 UTC | 11% |
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| 23 Sept, 03:56 UTC | 11% |
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| 22 Sept, 22:28 UTC | 11% |
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| 22 Sept, 16:46 UTC | 11% |
| 22 Sept, 16:28 UTC | 11% |
| 22 Sept, 15:55 UTC | 11% |
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| 22 Sept, 14:57 UTC | 11% |
| 22 Sept, 14:19 UTC | 11% |
| 22 Sept, 13:57 UTC | 11% |
| 22 Sept, 13:23 UTC | 11% |
| 22 Sept, 12:57 UTC | 11% |
| 22 Sept, 12:20 UTC | 11% |
| 22 Sept, 11:59 UTC | 11% |
| 22 Sept, 11:27 UTC | 11% |
| 22 Sept, 10:52 UTC | 11% |
| 22 Sept, 10:26 UTC | 11% |
| 22 Sept, 09:59 UTC | 11% |
| 22 Sept, 09:20 UTC | 12% |
| 22 Sept, 02:00 UTC | 12% |
| 22 Sept, 01:53 UTC | 13% |
| 22 Sept, 00:59 UTC | 13% |
| 22 Sept, 00:20 UTC | 13% |
| 21 Sept, 23:55 UTC | 13% |
| 21 Sept, 23:28 UTC | 13% |
| 21 Sept, 22:56 UTC | 13% |
| 21 Sept, 22:29 UTC | 13% |
| 21 Sept, 21:54 UTC | 13% |
| 21 Sept, 21:23 UTC | 12% |
| 21 Sept, 20:56 UTC | 11% |
| 21 Sept, 20:27 UTC | 11% |
| 21 Sept, 19:55 UTC | 11% |
| 21 Sept, 19:28 UTC | 13% |
| 21 Sept, 18:58 UTC | 12% |
| 21 Sept, 17:43 UTC | 12% |
| 21 Sept, 17:23 UTC | 13% |
| 21 Sept, 16:36 UTC | 12% |
| 21 Sept, 16:23 UTC | 13% |
| 21 Sept, 15:55 UTC | 13% |
| 21 Sept, 15:29 UTC | 12% |
| 21 Sept, 14:55 UTC | 13% |
| 21 Sept, 14:29 UTC | 13% |
| 21 Sept, 13:39 UTC | 13% |
| 21 Sept, 12:37 UTC | 13% |
| 21 Sept, 12:08 UTC | 13% |
| 21 Sept, 10:31 UTC | 13% |
| 21 Sept, 07:14 UTC | 16% |
| 21 Sept, 06:57 UTC | 16% |
| 21 Sept, 06:19 UTC | 15% |
| 21 Sept, 05:55 UTC | 15% |
| 21 Sept, 05:09 UTC | 15% |
| 21 Sept, 04:50 UTC | 14% |
| 21 Sept, 04:00 UTC | 14% |
| 21 Sept, 03:42 UTC | 13% |
| 21 Sept, 02:55 UTC | 14% |
| 21 Sept, 02:27 UTC | 14% |
| 12 Sept, 18:39 UTC | 8% |
| 11 Sept, 18:39 UTC | 7% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Will Brock Purdy win the 2026 NFL MVP? respond.
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 5 articles since 28 Sept 2026. www.espn.com published first, on 28 September at 00:13 UTC; SI Feed followed 24h 03m later. The most recent article, from SI Feed, appeared on 29 September at 21:36 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: www.espn.com (major outlet), SI Feed.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will Brock Purdy win the 2026 NFL MVP? — the market puts it at 16%, with $276 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 15 Feb 2027. The Yes outcome occurs if Brock Purdy is named the 2026 NFL MVP. The No outcome applies if any other player wins the award or if the season ends without a winner. Readers often mistake the linked game result for the resolution criteria, but only the official MVP title matters.
- Brock Purdy — the market puts it at 9%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 18 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Brock Purdy ranks first in total points among all quarterbacks during the 2026-27 NFL regular season. It resolves to No if he finishes second or lower, or if the season ends without a clear leader. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the playoffs instead of the conclusion of the regular season.
- Brock Purdy — the market puts it at 7%, with $18 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Feb 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Brock Purdy ranks as the top-scoring quarterback on ESPN's Fantasy Football PPR Quarterback Rankings for the 2026-2027 regular season. It resolves to No if he does not hold that specific position in that ranking. Readers often mistake the deadline, thinking the resolution depends on his performance in a single game rather than his standing at the end of the entire regular season.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will Brock Purdy win the 2026 NFL MVP? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- www.espn.comLet's overreact to NFL Week 3: Brock Purdy is the MVP front-runner? Giants fine with Jameis Winston?12%
- SI FeedThe Case for and Against Brock Purdy's MVP Candidacy Through 3 games12%
- SI Feed49ers QB Brock Purdy Opens Up on Staying Focused When Teammates Go Down12%
- SI FeedBrock Purdy Surging on Kalshi NFL MVP Market12%
- SI Feed49ers QB Brock Purdy is Slowly Building an MVP Season16%▲5 points since the previous source
- Current odds16%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Let's overreact to NFL Week 3: Brock Purdy is the MVP front-runner? Giants fine with Jameis Winston? www.espn.com ·
- 49ers QB Brock Purdy is Slowly Building an MVP Season SI Feed
- Brock Purdy Surging on Kalshi NFL MVP Market SI Feed
- 49ers QB Brock Purdy Opens Up on Staying Focused When Teammates Go Down SI Feed
- The Case for and Against Brock Purdy's MVP Candidacy Through 3 games SI Feed
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Polymarket Will Brock Purdy win the 2026 NFL MVP? 16% −1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Brock Purdy 9% +3
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Brock Purdy 7% −1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
Your call. How does this end?
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In this story
- Brock Purdy
- San Francisco 49ers
- Kalshi
- Dan Orlovsky