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Mike Leigh’s ‘Tender Loving Care’ Wins Top Prize at San Sebastián Film Festival

The film takes the Golden Shell and Best Screenplay awards, while Kate O’Flynn wins Best Leading Performance.

2 publishers · 2 articles · first seen 26 Sept 2026 · updated 41d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

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The odds

How the odds moved · Sebastian Stan
0%50%100%26%25 Sept, 20:54 UTCnowThe Hollywood Reporter: Mike Leigh’s ‘Tender Loving Care’ Sweeps San Sebastian Awards as ‘La Bola Negra,’ ‘NAZA’ Earn Audience Nods · 26 Sept, 20:49 UTCDeadline: San Sebastián: Mike Leigh’s ‘Tender Loving Care’ Wins Golden Shell & Best Screenplay · 26 Sept, 20:43 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now26%
26 Sept, 21:24 UTC26%
25 Sept, 20:54 UTC28%

The story so far

2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 26 Sept 2026. Deadline published first, on 26 September at 20:43 UTC; The Hollywood Reporter followed 6 min later. The most recent article, from The Hollywood Reporter, appeared on 26 September at 20:49 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: The Hollywood Reporter (major outlet), Deadline.

2 prediction markets price this story:

  • Sebastian Stan — the market puts it at 26%, closing 31 Dec 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Sebastian Stan receives a nomination for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards. It resolves to No if he does not receive that specific nomination. Readers often mistake any award win or general recognition for an official Oscar nomination.
  • Sebastian Stan — the market puts it at 1%, closing 31 Dec 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Sebastian Stan wins Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the San Sebastián Film Festival win for the relevant award.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. Mike Leigh’s ‘Tender Loving Care’ Sweeps San Sebastian Awards as ‘La Bola Negra,’ ‘NAZA’ Earn Audience Nods The Hollywood Reporter ·
  2. San Sebastián: Mike Leigh’s ‘Tender Loving Care’ Wins Golden Shell & Best Screenplay Deadline

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Kalshi Sebastian Stan 26% $0 24hends 31 Dec 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Kalshi Sebastian Stan 1% $0 24hends 31 Dec 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

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In this story

  • Mike Leigh
  • Tender Loving Care
  • San Sebastián Film Festival
  • Kate O’Flynn
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