Hurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Rachel kill six in Mexico

The storms have caused flooding and infrastructure damage along the Pacific coast, prompting rescue operations and shelter orders.

8 publishers · 13 articles · first seen 11 Oct 2026 · updated 24d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

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The odds

How the odds moved · Category 5 or above

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data

Time	Chance of yes
now	5%
14 Oct, 02:15 UTC	5%
12 Oct, 19:01 UTC	3%
12 Oct, 17:30 UTC	11%
12 Oct, 11:32 UTC	1%
12 Oct, 10:22 UTC	50%
12 Oct, 05:00 UTC	3%
12 Oct, 02:46 UTC	7%
11 Oct, 21:12 UTC	8%
11 Oct, 12:39 UTC	1%
11 Oct, 08:13 UTC	19%
11 Oct, 07:54 UTC	15%
11 Oct, 07:14 UTC	19%
11 Oct, 06:56 UTC	38%
11 Oct, 06:13 UTC	30%
11 Oct, 05:55 UTC	26%
11 Oct, 04:53 UTC	32%
11 Oct, 03:26 UTC	36%
11 Oct, 02:54 UTC	40%
11 Oct, 01:34 UTC	39%
11 Oct, 01:10 UTC	24%
11 Oct, 00:57 UTC	26%
11 Oct, 00:26 UTC	22%
10 Oct, 22:07 UTC	12%
10 Oct, 21:47 UTC	16%
10 Oct, 20:53 UTC	19%
10 Oct, 20:28 UTC	24%
10 Oct, 19:50 UTC	31%
10 Oct, 19:18 UTC	56%
10 Oct, 18:33 UTC	27%
10 Oct, 18:14 UTC	32%
10 Oct, 16:15 UTC	34%
10 Oct, 15:48 UTC	34%
10 Oct, 15:28 UTC	41%
10 Oct, 14:48 UTC	53%
10 Oct, 14:27 UTC	42%
10 Oct, 13:36 UTC	51%
10 Oct, 13:14 UTC	53%
10 Oct, 12:54 UTC	49%
10 Oct, 12:27 UTC	54%
10 Oct, 11:54 UTC	65%
10 Oct, 11:18 UTC	67%
10 Oct, 10:58 UTC	69%
10 Oct, 10:02 UTC	70%
10 Oct, 09:15 UTC	65%
9 Oct, 08:57 UTC	25%

The story so far

8 publishers have covered this in 13 articles since 11 Oct 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 11 October at 19:31 UTC; Deutsche Welle followed 11h 18m later. The most recent article, from CBS News, appeared on 13 October at 22:10 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), ABC News (major outlet), The Guardian (major outlet), CBS News (major outlet), Deutsche Welle, Phys.org - latest science and technology news stories, South China Morning Post, Times of India.

One prediction market prices this story:

Category 5 or above — the market puts it at 5%, with $100 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 2 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Hurricane Simon’s maximum sustained winds reach at least 157 mph. It resolves to No if the storm does not achieve that wind speed threshold. Readers often mistake the current category rating for the resolution criteria, but only the specific wind speed matters.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Category 5 or above at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

11 Oct, 19:31Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Mexican president urges residents to shelter as Hurricane Simon approaches1%
12 Oct, 06:50Deutsche Welle Hurricane Simon batters Mexico's Pacific Coast3%▲2 points since the previous source
12 Oct, 07:54ABC News Hurricane Simon pounds resorts and vulnerable towns along Mexico’s Pacific coast3%
12 Oct, 09:20Phys.org - latest science and technology news stories Hurricane Simon churns off Mexican coast after shift in course3%
12 Oct, 20:20Phys.org - latest science and technology news stories Hurricane Simon lashes Mexico's Pacific coast, threatens landfall3%
12 Oct, 22:23South China Morning Post 2 dead, 10 missing as hurricane and tropical storm hit Mexico3%
12 Oct, 23:09Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera Two deaths reported as Hurricane Simon, storm Rachel batter Mexico’s coast3%
13 Oct, 04:29The Guardian Hurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Rachel kill five people on Mexico’s Pacific coast3%
13 Oct, 04:49Times of India Hurricane Simon pounds Mexico's Pacific coast; Rachel's remnants flood US Southwest3%
13 Oct, 08:47CBS News Hurricane Simon hitting western Mexico after tropical systems kill 53%
Show 3 later sources
1. 13 Oct, 10:18Phys.org - latest science and technology news stories 5 dead as Hurricane Simon, Rachel pummel Mexico's Pacific coast3%
2. 13 Oct, 19:32ABC News Death toll rises to 6 as Hurricane Simon and Rachel remnants unleash floods in Mexico3%
3. 13 Oct, 22:10CBS News Hurricane Simon hits Mexico after storms kill 63%
NowCurrent odds5%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

Show 7 more sources

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

Kalshi Category 5 or above 5% $100 24hends 2 Dec 2026
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In this story

Hurricane Simon
Tropical Storm Rachel
Mexico

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