Category 5 or above
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$18k
Liquidity$18k
Resolves2 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 17 Oct, 00:24 UTC | 1% |
| 14 Oct, 02:15 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 19:01 UTC | 3% |
| 12 Oct, 17:30 UTC | 11% |
| 12 Oct, 11:32 UTC | 1% |
| 12 Oct, 10:22 UTC | 50% |
| 12 Oct, 05:00 UTC | 3% |
| 12 Oct, 02:46 UTC | 7% |
| 11 Oct, 21:12 UTC | 8% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Hurricane Simon’s maximum sustained winds reach at least 157 mph. It resolves to No if the storm does not achieve that wind speed threshold. Readers often mistake the current category rating for the resolution criteria, but only the specific wind speed matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%