Messi's exit leaves Argentina with impossible task of replacing their superhero
Lionel Messi is set to play a final friendly against Benin, marking the end of his international career and leaving Argentina without its key player.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 27 Oct, 01:06 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Oct, 23:10 UTC | 0% |
| 26 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 22:22 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Oct, 21:53 UTC | 8% |
| 26 Oct, 21:25 UTC | 10% |
| 26 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 11% |
| 26 Oct, 20:05 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 18:26 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Oct, 17:45 UTC | 10% |
| 26 Oct, 17:21 UTC | 13% |
| 26 Oct, 16:51 UTC | 12% |
| 26 Oct, 16:17 UTC | 14% |
| 26 Oct, 15:47 UTC | 13% |
| 26 Oct, 15:17 UTC | 10% |
| 26 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 12% |
| 26 Oct, 14:03 UTC | 14% |
| 26 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 13% |
| 26 Oct, 11:31 UTC | 14% |
| 26 Oct, 11:03 UTC | 16% |
| 26 Oct, 10:34 UTC | 14% |
| 26 Oct, 09:32 UTC | 13% |
| 26 Oct, 09:24 UTC | 14% |
| 26 Oct, 08:37 UTC | 14% |
| 26 Oct, 08:09 UTC | 14% |
| 26 Oct, 05:53 UTC | 14% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 14% |
| 25 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 13% |
| 25 Oct, 21:50 UTC | 13% |
| 25 Oct, 20:12 UTC | 13% |
| 25 Oct, 19:25 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 11% |
| 25 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 11% |
| 25 Oct, 17:17 UTC | 11% |
| 25 Oct, 16:49 UTC | 11% |
| 25 Oct, 16:28 UTC | 10% |
| 25 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 10% |
| 25 Oct, 14:34 UTC | 10% |
| 25 Oct, 14:19 UTC | 10% |
| 25 Oct, 13:49 UTC | 11% |
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| 25 Oct, 12:56 UTC | 11% |
| 25 Oct, 12:10 UTC | 13% |
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| 25 Oct, 10:42 UTC | 13% |
| 25 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 13% |
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| 25 Oct, 07:11 UTC | 12% |
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| 25 Oct, 04:49 UTC | 13% |
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| 25 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 13% |
| 25 Oct, 02:00 UTC | 12% |
| 25 Oct, 00:58 UTC | 10% |
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| 24 Oct, 23:34 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Oct, 23:05 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 9% |
| 24 Oct, 21:51 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Oct, 21:19 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Oct, 20:23 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Oct, 19:17 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Oct, 18:43 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Oct, 17:01 UTC | 8% |
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| 24 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Oct, 14:54 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Oct, 13:21 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Oct, 11:50 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Oct, 11:26 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Oct, 10:51 UTC | 11% |
| 24 Oct, 08:57 UTC | 12% |
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| 24 Oct, 07:17 UTC | 12% |
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| 24 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Oct, 00:27 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Oct, 23:57 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Oct, 23:17 UTC | 10% |
| 23 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 10% |
| 23 Oct, 19:57 UTC | 9% |
| 23 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 10% |
| 23 Oct, 18:48 UTC | 10% |
| 23 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 10% |
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| 23 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 9% |
| 23 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Oct, 12:22 UTC | 13% |
| 23 Oct, 11:27 UTC | 12% |
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| 23 Oct, 06:25 UTC | 12% |
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| 23 Oct, 01:18 UTC | 13% |
| 22 Oct, 23:41 UTC | 14% |
| 22 Oct, 19:52 UTC | 14% |
| 22 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 15% |
| 22 Oct, 16:26 UTC | 16% |
| 22 Oct, 15:57 UTC | 17% |
| 22 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 16% |
| 22 Oct, 14:31 UTC | 16% |
| 22 Oct, 13:49 UTC | 15% |
| 22 Oct, 13:27 UTC | 14% |
| 22 Oct, 12:36 UTC | 14% |
| 22 Oct, 12:29 UTC | 14% |
| 22 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 13% |
| 22 Oct, 11:22 UTC | 13% |
| 22 Oct, 10:53 UTC | 14% |
| 22 Oct, 10:09 UTC | 14% |
| 22 Oct, 08:46 UTC | 11% |
| 22 Oct, 08:08 UTC | 13% |
| 22 Oct, 07:08 UTC | 12% |
| 22 Oct, 05:18 UTC | 13% |
| 22 Oct, 04:55 UTC | 13% |
| 22 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 14% |
| 22 Oct, 02:47 UTC | 14% |
| 21 Oct, 22:53 UTC | 14% |
| 21 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 14% |
| 21 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 15% |
| 21 Oct, 16:51 UTC | 14% |
| 21 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 15% |
| 21 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 14% |
| 21 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 16% |
| 21 Oct, 14:05 UTC | 17% |
| 21 Oct, 13:40 UTC | 14% |
| 21 Oct, 10:03 UTC | 12% |
| 21 Oct, 06:44 UTC | 12% |
| 21 Oct, 05:27 UTC | 12% |
| 21 Oct, 01:24 UTC | 13% |
| 21 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 13% |
| 20 Oct, 23:34 UTC | 13% |
| 20 Oct, 23:14 UTC | 13% |
| 20 Oct, 22:59 UTC | 14% |
| 20 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 15% |
| 20 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 14% |
| 20 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 14% |
| 20 Oct, 20:02 UTC | 14% |
| 20 Oct, 19:41 UTC | 15% |
| 20 Oct, 18:52 UTC | 16% |
| 20 Oct, 16:41 UTC | 15% |
| 20 Oct, 16:20 UTC | 17% |
| 20 Oct, 13:20 UTC | 19% |
| 20 Oct, 11:19 UTC | 20% |
| 20 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 20% |
| 20 Oct, 09:46 UTC | 20% |
| 20 Oct, 09:25 UTC | 20% |
| 20 Oct, 08:44 UTC | 20% |
| 20 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 18% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 20% |
| 18 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 21% |
| 18 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 19% |
| 18 Oct, 20:59 UTC | 17% |
| 18 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 18% |
| 18 Oct, 19:52 UTC | 18% |
| 18 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 16% |
| 18 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 17% |
| 18 Oct, 17:52 UTC | 22% |
| 18 Oct, 17:17 UTC | 19% |
| 18 Oct, 16:45 UTC | 19% |
| 18 Oct, 16:24 UTC | 16% |
| 18 Oct, 15:59 UTC | 17% |
| 18 Oct, 15:29 UTC | 19% |
| 18 Oct, 12:48 UTC | 21% |
| 18 Oct, 11:19 UTC | 23% |
| 18 Oct, 10:59 UTC | 20% |
| 18 Oct, 10:22 UTC | 19% |
| 18 Oct, 09:33 UTC | 22% |
| 18 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 24% |
| 18 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 24% |
| 18 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 24% |
| 18 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 23% |
| 18 Oct, 01:35 UTC | 22% |
| 17 Oct, 23:10 UTC | 23% |
| 17 Oct, 21:39 UTC | 20% |
| 17 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 21% |
| 17 Oct, 20:57 UTC | 24% |
| 17 Oct, 14:19 UTC | 25% |
| 17 Oct, 13:41 UTC | 25% |
| 17 Oct, 13:16 UTC | 24% |
| 17 Oct, 12:55 UTC | 23% |
| 17 Oct, 12:20 UTC | 22% |
| 17 Oct, 11:53 UTC | 22% |
| 17 Oct, 11:20 UTC | 23% |
| 17 Oct, 10:47 UTC | 22% |
| 17 Oct, 08:52 UTC | 27% |
| 17 Oct, 08:20 UTC | 26% |
| 17 Oct, 07:54 UTC | 27% |
| 17 Oct, 07:27 UTC | 27% |
| 17 Oct, 06:41 UTC | 27% |
| 17 Oct, 06:27 UTC | 26% |
| 17 Oct, 05:42 UTC | 25% |
| 17 Oct, 05:29 UTC | 25% |
| 17 Oct, 04:43 UTC | 25% |
| 17 Oct, 04:23 UTC | 25% |
| 17 Oct, 03:56 UTC | 25% |
| 17 Oct, 03:23 UTC | 25% |
| 17 Oct, 02:56 UTC | 25% |
| 17 Oct, 02:04 UTC | 26% |
| 17 Oct, 01:57 UTC | 24% |
| 17 Oct, 01:23 UTC | 24% |
| 17 Oct, 00:44 UTC | 24% |
| 16 Oct, 19:48 UTC | 21% |
| 16 Oct, 17:55 UTC | 20% |
| 16 Oct, 12:05 UTC | 19% |
| 16 Oct, 11:44 UTC | 20% |
| 16 Oct, 09:06 UTC | 20% |
| 16 Oct, 04:29 UTC | 19% |
| 15 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 20% |
| 15 Oct, 22:29 UTC | 19% |
| 15 Oct, 20:10 UTC | 19% |
| 15 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 18% |
| 15 Oct, 19:28 UTC | 18% |
| 15 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 18% |
| 15 Oct, 17:18 UTC | 17% |
| 15 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 18% |
| 15 Oct, 15:52 UTC | 17% |
| 15 Oct, 14:27 UTC | 18% |
| 15 Oct, 13:59 UTC | 19% |
| 15 Oct, 10:38 UTC | 19% |
| 15 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 19% |
| 15 Oct, 05:48 UTC | 19% |
| 15 Oct, 04:56 UTC | 19% |
| 15 Oct, 04:22 UTC | 19% |
| 15 Oct, 03:03 UTC | 19% |
| 15 Oct, 02:43 UTC | 19% |
| 15 Oct, 02:22 UTC | 19% |
| 14 Oct, 20:11 UTC | 19% |
| 14 Oct, 15:32 UTC | 21% |
| 14 Oct, 11:31 UTC | 19% |
| 14 Oct, 07:16 UTC | 18% |
| 14 Oct, 05:42 UTC | 18% |
| 14 Oct, 02:01 UTC | 19% |
| 14 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 19% |
| 14 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 20% |
| 14 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 21% |
| 13 Oct, 20:06 UTC | 21% |
| 13 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 22% |
| 13 Oct, 18:03 UTC | 25% |
| 13 Oct, 17:21 UTC | 24% |
| 13 Oct, 16:19 UTC | 24% |
| 13 Oct, 15:57 UTC | 23% |
| 13 Oct, 12:37 UTC | 23% |
| 13 Oct, 12:22 UTC | 23% |
| 13 Oct, 10:22 UTC | 23% |
| 13 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 23% |
| 13 Oct, 07:01 UTC | 30% |
| 13 Oct, 06:35 UTC | 30% |
| 13 Oct, 06:08 UTC | 29% |
| 13 Oct, 05:55 UTC | 30% |
| 13 Oct, 05:28 UTC | 28% |
| 13 Oct, 02:07 UTC | 28% |
| 13 Oct, 00:15 UTC | 28% |
| 12 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 28% |
| 12 Oct, 19:07 UTC | 26% |
| 12 Oct, 17:36 UTC | 26% |
| 12 Oct, 17:12 UTC | 26% |
| 12 Oct, 16:32 UTC | 26% |
| 12 Oct, 16:25 UTC | 27% |
| 12 Oct, 15:54 UTC | 26% |
| 12 Oct, 15:14 UTC | 25% |
| 12 Oct, 14:48 UTC | 26% |
| 12 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 27% |
| 12 Oct, 10:53 UTC | 24% |
| 12 Oct, 09:33 UTC | 23% |
| 12 Oct, 06:32 UTC | 23% |
| 12 Oct, 03:31 UTC | 24% |
| 11 Oct, 19:43 UTC | 25% |
| 10 Oct, 12:34 UTC | 30% |
| 10 Oct, 10:58 UTC | 29% |
| 10 Oct, 09:08 UTC | 28% |
| 10 Oct, 08:43 UTC | 30% |
| 10 Oct, 06:44 UTC | 34% |
| 10 Oct, 05:59 UTC | 33% |
| 9 Oct, 18:00 UTC | 33% |
| 9 Oct, 12:09 UTC | 33% |
| 9 Oct, 09:20 UTC | 33% |
| 9 Oct, 08:55 UTC | 33% |
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| 9 Oct, 05:00 UTC | 34% |
| 9 Oct, 04:33 UTC | 34% |
| 9 Oct, 03:54 UTC | 35% |
| 9 Oct, 02:07 UTC | 37% |
| 9 Oct, 01:36 UTC | 36% |
| 9 Oct, 01:29 UTC | 36% |
| 9 Oct, 00:55 UTC | 35% |
| 9 Oct, 00:23 UTC | 34% |
| 8 Oct, 23:42 UTC | 33% |
| 8 Oct, 23:23 UTC | 34% |
| 8 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 33% |
| 8 Oct, 22:10 UTC | 35% |
| 8 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 36% |
| 8 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 36% |
| 8 Oct, 18:11 UTC | 30% |
| 8 Oct, 12:01 UTC | 29% |
| 8 Oct, 07:06 UTC | 29% |
| 8 Oct, 06:53 UTC | 29% |
| 8 Oct, 06:18 UTC | 30% |
| 8 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 29% |
| 8 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 29% |
| 7 Oct, 19:42 UTC | 30% |
| 7 Oct, 15:48 UTC | 29% |
| 7 Oct, 15:24 UTC | 28% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 30% |
| 7 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 29% |
| 6 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 28% |
| 6 Oct, 14:37 UTC | 28% |
| 4 Oct, 08:36 UTC | 30% |
| 2 Oct, 17:37 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Oct, 17:04 UTC | 26% |
| 2 Oct, 16:51 UTC | 23% |
| 2 Oct, 16:23 UTC | 23% |
| 2 Oct, 15:59 UTC | 22% |
| 1 Oct, 19:48 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Oct, 19:19 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Oct, 18:05 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Oct, 16:59 UTC | 31% |
| 1 Oct, 16:21 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Sept, 19:53 UTC | 29% |
| 30 Sept, 19:01 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 31% |
| 30 Sept, 14:50 UTC | 32% |
| 30 Sept, 13:57 UTC | 32% |
| 30 Sept, 12:53 UTC | 31% |
| 30 Sept, 12:24 UTC | 31% |
| 30 Sept, 11:03 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Sept, 03:06 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Sept, 02:59 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Sept, 02:21 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Sept, 01:44 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Sept, 01:08 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Sept, 00:40 UTC | 28% |
| 29 Sept, 22:53 UTC | 28% |
| 29 Sept, 21:47 UTC | 29% |
| 29 Sept, 19:33 UTC | 28% |
| 29 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 28% |
| 29 Sept, 18:13 UTC | 25% |
| 29 Sept, 17:33 UTC | 30% |
| 29 Sept, 17:16 UTC | 28% |
| 29 Sept, 16:54 UTC | 32% |
| 29 Sept, 14:53 UTC | 32% |
| 29 Sept, 13:51 UTC | 32% |
| 29 Sept, 09:37 UTC | 32% |
| 29 Sept, 06:22 UTC | 32% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 32% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 34% |
| 28 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 32% |
| 28 Sept, 14:06 UTC | 34% |
| 28 Sept, 12:11 UTC | 30% |
| 28 Sept, 11:46 UTC | 30% |
| 28 Sept, 11:26 UTC | 29% |
| 28 Sept, 10:53 UTC | 29% |
| 28 Sept, 10:28 UTC | 29% |
| 28 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 30% |
| 28 Sept, 08:55 UTC | 29% |
| 28 Sept, 07:51 UTC | 30% |
| 28 Sept, 06:59 UTC | 30% |
| 28 Sept, 06:24 UTC | 31% |
| 28 Sept, 05:28 UTC | 28% |
| 28 Sept, 04:46 UTC | 28% |
| 28 Sept, 03:42 UTC | 28% |
| 28 Sept, 02:41 UTC | 31% |
| 28 Sept, 01:36 UTC | 33% |
| 28 Sept, 01:11 UTC | 33% |
| 28 Sept, 00:14 UTC | 33% |
| 27 Sept, 23:37 UTC | 34% |
| 27 Sept, 22:32 UTC | 34% |
| 27 Sept, 22:24 UTC | 34% |
| 27 Sept, 21:08 UTC | 33% |
| 27 Sept, 20:50 UTC | 32% |
| 27 Sept, 19:33 UTC | 32% |
| 27 Sept, 19:27 UTC | 31% |
| 27 Sept, 18:06 UTC | 32% |
| 27 Sept, 16:52 UTC | 33% |
| 27 Sept, 10:22 UTC | 34% |
| 27 Sept, 06:34 UTC | 35% |
| 27 Sept, 06:17 UTC | 33% |
| 27 Sept, 02:39 UTC | 32% |
| 27 Sept, 00:42 UTC | 33% |
| 26 Sept, 23:34 UTC | 33% |
| 26 Sept, 23:09 UTC | 32% |
| 26 Sept, 22:14 UTC | 33% |
| 26 Sept, 21:32 UTC | 32% |
| 26 Sept, 20:44 UTC | 30% |
| 26 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 30% |
| 26 Sept, 16:48 UTC | 30% |
| 26 Sept, 15:15 UTC | 31% |
| 26 Sept, 14:37 UTC | 28% |
| 26 Sept, 14:10 UTC | 30% |
| 26 Sept, 13:50 UTC | 30% |
| 26 Sept, 12:13 UTC | 30% |
| 26 Sept, 10:59 UTC | 30% |
| 26 Sept, 09:24 UTC | 31% |
| 26 Sept, 08:38 UTC | 29% |
| 26 Sept, 08:22 UTC | 30% |
| 26 Sept, 06:00 UTC | 28% |
| 26 Sept, 05:24 UTC | 29% |
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| 26 Sept, 03:31 UTC | 30% |
| 26 Sept, 03:08 UTC | 28% |
| 26 Sept, 02:32 UTC | 28% |
| 26 Sept, 02:02 UTC | 29% |
| 26 Sept, 01:37 UTC | 33% |
| 25 Sept, 20:53 UTC | 34% |
| 25 Sept, 20:11 UTC | 37% |
| 25 Sept, 19:53 UTC | 36% |
| 25 Sept, 17:52 UTC | 30% |
| 25 Sept, 07:21 UTC | 30% |
| 25 Sept, 06:54 UTC | 29% |
| 25 Sept, 00:27 UTC | 27% |
| 24 Sept, 23:59 UTC | 27% |
| 24 Sept, 23:21 UTC | 27% |
| 24 Sept, 22:24 UTC | 28% |
| 24 Sept, 21:53 UTC | 30% |
| 24 Sept, 21:25 UTC | 27% |
| 24 Sept, 17:48 UTC | 29% |
| 24 Sept, 17:27 UTC | 28% |
| 24 Sept, 16:47 UTC | 30% |
| 24 Sept, 16:26 UTC | 29% |
| 24 Sept, 14:44 UTC | 30% |
| 24 Sept, 14:18 UTC | 31% |
| 24 Sept, 02:44 UTC | 36% |
| 23 Sept, 14:05 UTC | 36% |
| 23 Sept, 13:00 UTC | 38% |
| 23 Sept, 12:54 UTC | 39% |
| 23 Sept, 12:14 UTC | 41% |
| 23 Sept, 07:27 UTC | 41% |
| 23 Sept, 04:48 UTC | 40% |
| 21 Sept, 18:05 UTC | 42% |
| 21 Sept, 17:15 UTC | 41% |
| 21 Sept, 11:44 UTC | 38% |
| 21 Sept, 01:19 UTC | 39% |
| 20 Sept, 20:39 UTC | 37% |
| 20 Sept, 09:09 UTC | 41% |
| 20 Sept, 08:07 UTC | 42% |
| 20 Sept, 07:29 UTC | 40% |
| 20 Sept, 06:52 UTC | 36% |
| 20 Sept, 03:17 UTC | 34% |
| 20 Sept, 02:21 UTC | 33% |
| 20 Sept, 01:57 UTC | 33% |
| 19 Sept, 20:17 UTC | 31% |
| 19 Sept, 14:48 UTC | 30% |
| 19 Sept, 14:13 UTC | 31% |
| 19 Sept, 12:33 UTC | 30% |
| 19 Sept, 12:27 UTC | 30% |
| 19 Sept, 11:55 UTC | 30% |
| 19 Sept, 10:02 UTC | 30% |
| 19 Sept, 08:59 UTC | 29% |
| 19 Sept, 08:09 UTC | 30% |
| 18 Sept, 05:06 UTC | 32% |
| 18 Sept, 04:59 UTC | 31% |
| 18 Sept, 03:44 UTC | 31% |
| 18 Sept, 03:26 UTC | 31% |
| 18 Sept, 02:54 UTC | 31% |
| 18 Sept, 02:25 UTC | 31% |
| 18 Sept, 01:42 UTC | 29% |
| 18 Sept, 01:04 UTC | 29% |
| 18 Sept, 00:57 UTC | 28% |
| 17 Sept, 10:29 UTC | 23% |
| 16 Sept, 10:29 UTC | 20% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 26 Sept 2026. The Guardian Sport published first, on 26 September at 19:00 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? — resolved “No” on 27 Oct 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if Lionel Messi ranks in positions one through three on the official men's 2026 Ballon d'Or final list. The No outcome applies if he finishes outside the top three, if the award is canceled, or if no ranking publishes by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
- Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? — resolved “No” on 27 Oct 2026. The market resolves based on who wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or as announced by France Football. For 'Yes,' Lionel Messi must be declared the winner; for 'No,' he must not win. Readers often mistake the deadline, which is December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, or assume other sources of information are valid.
- Lionel Messi — resolved “No” on 26 Oct 2026. The outcome is Yes if Lionel Messi wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about his departure from Argentina as the deciding factor, but only the official award result matters.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 11d ago
The market favoured No at 86% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Resolved Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 11d ago
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Resolved Lionel Messi No 11d ago
The market favoured No at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
In this story
- Lionel Messi
- Argentina
- Benin