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Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Resolved: No 11d ago

The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$4.4M
Total volume$10.8M
Liquidity$0
Resolved27 Oct 2026
How the odds moved · Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
0%50%100%0%20 Oct, 11:19 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now0%
27 Oct, 01:53 UTC0%
26 Oct, 22:56 UTC0%
26 Oct, 22:22 UTC0%
26 Oct, 21:25 UTC0%
26 Oct, 19:37 UTC0%
26 Oct, 18:57 UTC0%
26 Oct, 17:36 UTC1%
26 Oct, 17:28 UTC0%
26 Oct, 16:51 UTC0%
26 Oct, 16:24 UTC0%
26 Oct, 15:54 UTC0%
26 Oct, 15:09 UTC0%
26 Oct, 14:55 UTC1%
26 Oct, 14:23 UTC1%
26 Oct, 13:55 UTC1%
26 Oct, 13:13 UTC1%
26 Oct, 10:34 UTC1%
26 Oct, 10:14 UTC1%
26 Oct, 09:39 UTC1%
26 Oct, 09:17 UTC1%
26 Oct, 08:51 UTC1%
26 Oct, 07:44 UTC1%
26 Oct, 07:13 UTC1%
26 Oct, 06:51 UTC1%
26 Oct, 06:20 UTC1%
26 Oct, 05:36 UTC1%
26 Oct, 05:19 UTC1%
26 Oct, 03:20 UTC1%
26 Oct, 01:52 UTC1%
26 Oct, 01:12 UTC1%
25 Oct, 23:25 UTC1%
25 Oct, 22:54 UTC1%
25 Oct, 22:13 UTC1%
25 Oct, 21:43 UTC1%
25 Oct, 21:29 UTC1%
25 Oct, 19:25 UTC1%
25 Oct, 18:57 UTC1%
25 Oct, 18:11 UTC1%
25 Oct, 17:35 UTC1%
25 Oct, 17:17 UTC2%
25 Oct, 16:56 UTC1%
25 Oct, 16:21 UTC1%
25 Oct, 15:03 UTC1%
25 Oct, 14:27 UTC1%
25 Oct, 12:56 UTC1%
25 Oct, 12:10 UTC1%
25 Oct, 11:42 UTC1%
25 Oct, 10:49 UTC1%
25 Oct, 10:21 UTC1%
25 Oct, 09:58 UTC1%
25 Oct, 08:32 UTC1%
25 Oct, 07:18 UTC1%
25 Oct, 06:19 UTC1%
25 Oct, 05:57 UTC1%
25 Oct, 05:10 UTC1%
25 Oct, 04:49 UTC1%
25 Oct, 03:58 UTC1%
25 Oct, 03:23 UTC1%
25 Oct, 02:49 UTC1%
25 Oct, 02:14 UTC1%
25 Oct, 00:36 UTC1%
25 Oct, 00:29 UTC1%
24 Oct, 23:48 UTC1%
24 Oct, 23:19 UTC1%
24 Oct, 22:51 UTC1%
24 Oct, 22:05 UTC1%
24 Oct, 21:19 UTC1%
24 Oct, 20:58 UTC1%
24 Oct, 20:23 UTC1%
24 Oct, 19:58 UTC1%
24 Oct, 19:23 UTC1%
24 Oct, 18:50 UTC1%
24 Oct, 18:29 UTC1%
24 Oct, 17:54 UTC1%
24 Oct, 17:29 UTC1%
24 Oct, 16:40 UTC1%
24 Oct, 16:08 UTC2%
24 Oct, 15:55 UTC2%
24 Oct, 15:27 UTC1%
24 Oct, 14:47 UTC2%
24 Oct, 14:27 UTC2%
24 Oct, 13:52 UTC2%
24 Oct, 13:29 UTC2%
24 Oct, 12:40 UTC2%
24 Oct, 11:43 UTC2%
24 Oct, 07:27 UTC2%
24 Oct, 06:58 UTC2%
24 Oct, 03:30 UTC2%
24 Oct, 00:59 UTC2%
24 Oct, 00:20 UTC2%
23 Oct, 23:57 UTC2%
23 Oct, 22:35 UTC2%
23 Oct, 22:28 UTC2%
23 Oct, 19:57 UTC2%
23 Oct, 18:14 UTC2%
23 Oct, 16:50 UTC2%
23 Oct, 16:07 UTC2%
23 Oct, 15:49 UTC2%
23 Oct, 14:59 UTC2%
23 Oct, 14:24 UTC2%
23 Oct, 13:52 UTC2%
23 Oct, 08:14 UTC2%
23 Oct, 07:26 UTC2%
23 Oct, 05:53 UTC2%
23 Oct, 05:11 UTC2%
23 Oct, 04:57 UTC2%
23 Oct, 04:24 UTC2%
22 Oct, 20:40 UTC2%
22 Oct, 20:20 UTC2%
22 Oct, 19:03 UTC2%
22 Oct, 18:56 UTC2%
22 Oct, 18:20 UTC2%
22 Oct, 17:45 UTC2%
22 Oct, 17:16 UTC2%
22 Oct, 15:57 UTC2%
22 Oct, 15:28 UTC2%
22 Oct, 14:46 UTC2%
22 Oct, 14:24 UTC2%
22 Oct, 13:49 UTC2%
22 Oct, 05:32 UTC2%
22 Oct, 04:34 UTC2%
22 Oct, 02:12 UTC2%
22 Oct, 01:58 UTC2%
21 Oct, 22:02 UTC2%
21 Oct, 21:41 UTC2%
21 Oct, 21:12 UTC2%
21 Oct, 20:49 UTC2%
21 Oct, 06:37 UTC2%
21 Oct, 06:16 UTC2%
21 Oct, 05:41 UTC2%
21 Oct, 00:14 UTC2%
20 Oct, 22:59 UTC2%
20 Oct, 21:56 UTC2%
20 Oct, 21:20 UTC2%
20 Oct, 20:58 UTC2%
20 Oct, 20:24 UTC2%
20 Oct, 17:39 UTC2%
20 Oct, 17:10 UTC2%
20 Oct, 16:20 UTC2%
20 Oct, 14:54 UTC2%
20 Oct, 13:45 UTC2%
20 Oct, 13:29 UTC2%
20 Oct, 12:25 UTC2%
20 Oct, 11:55 UTC3%
20 Oct, 11:19 UTC2%

What counts

The market resolves based on who wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or as announced by France Football. For 'Yes,' Lionel Messi must be declared the winner; for 'No,' he must not win. Readers often mistake the deadline, which is December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, or assume other sources of information are valid.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 0%
  • No 100%

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