Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Implied probability 38%−3
24-hour volume$399
Total volume$5k
Liquidity$3k
Resolves26 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 38% |
| 21 Sept, 11:44 UTC | 38% |
| 21 Sept, 01:19 UTC | 39% |
| 20 Sept, 20:39 UTC | 37% |
| 20 Sept, 09:09 UTC | 41% |
| 20 Sept, 08:07 UTC | 42% |
| 20 Sept, 07:29 UTC | 40% |
| 20 Sept, 06:52 UTC | 36% |
| 20 Sept, 03:17 UTC | 34% |
| 20 Sept, 02:21 UTC | 33% |
| 20 Sept, 01:57 UTC | 33% |
| 19 Sept, 20:17 UTC | 31% |
| 19 Sept, 14:48 UTC | 30% |
| 19 Sept, 14:13 UTC | 31% |
| 19 Sept, 12:33 UTC | 30% |
| 19 Sept, 12:27 UTC | 30% |
| 19 Sept, 11:55 UTC | 30% |
| 19 Sept, 10:02 UTC | 30% |
| 19 Sept, 08:59 UTC | 29% |
| 19 Sept, 08:09 UTC | 30% |
| 18 Sept, 05:06 UTC | 32% |
| 18 Sept, 04:59 UTC | 31% |
| 18 Sept, 03:44 UTC | 31% |
| 18 Sept, 03:26 UTC | 31% |
| 18 Sept, 02:54 UTC | 31% |
| 18 Sept, 02:25 UTC | 31% |
| 18 Sept, 01:42 UTC | 29% |
| 18 Sept, 01:04 UTC | 29% |
| 18 Sept, 00:57 UTC | 28% |
| 17 Sept, 10:29 UTC | 23% |
| 16 Sept, 10:29 UTC | 20% |
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if Lionel Messi ranks in positions one through three on the official men's 2026 Ballon d'Or final list. The No outcome applies if he finishes outside the top three, if the award is canceled, or if no ranking publishes by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 38%
- No 62%
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