Democratic Socialist Nithya Raman Elected Los Angeles Mayor
Nithya Raman defeats incumbent Karen Bass to become the first South Asian mayor of Los Angeles.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 6 Nov, 05:25 UTC | 99% |
| 5 Nov, 23:44 UTC | 96% |
| 5 Nov, 20:49 UTC | 99% |
| 5 Nov, 15:41 UTC | 95% |
| 5 Nov, 14:16 UTC | 96% |
| 5 Nov, 12:44 UTC | 95% |
| 5 Nov, 07:02 UTC | 99% |
| 5 Nov, 06:40 UTC | 95% |
| 5 Nov, 05:35 UTC | 96% |
| 5 Nov, 05:02 UTC | 98% |
| 5 Nov, 02:54 UTC | 97% |
| 5 Nov, 00:51 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 23:32 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Nov, 23:18 UTC | 91% |
| 4 Nov, 22:42 UTC | 88% |
| 4 Nov, 21:58 UTC | 89% |
| 4 Nov, 18:57 UTC | 72% |
| 4 Nov, 18:04 UTC | 70% |
| 4 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 65% |
| 4 Nov, 16:20 UTC | 63% |
| 4 Nov, 15:13 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 12:40 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 10:58 UTC | 92% |
| 4 Nov, 09:43 UTC | 60% |
| 4 Nov, 09:07 UTC | 59% |
| 4 Nov, 07:34 UTC | 45% |
| 4 Nov, 07:27 UTC | 48% |
| 4 Nov, 06:43 UTC | 43% |
| 4 Nov, 06:00 UTC | 40% |
| 4 Nov, 04:33 UTC | 67% |
| 3 Nov, 23:03 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Nov, 17:26 UTC | 29% |
| 3 Nov, 14:46 UTC | 39% |
| 3 Nov, 13:11 UTC | 38% |
| 3 Nov, 02:01 UTC | 34% |
| 1 Nov, 13:46 UTC | 31% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Nithya Raman, ≥4% respond.
The story so far
17 publishers have covered this in 28 articles since 3 Nov 2026. The Hill published first, on 3 November at 17:00 UTC; Variety followed 11h 50m later. The most recent article, from Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera, appeared on 6 November at 12:41 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The Hill (major outlet), Variety (major outlet), The Hollywood Reporter (major outlet), Bloomberg.com (major outlet), politico.com (major outlet), CBS News Politics (major outlet), The Guardian US (major outlet), News Feed (major outlet), Axios (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), The Economist (major outlet), NPR Politics (major outlet) and 5 more, all listed under Sources below.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Nithya Raman, ≥4% — the market puts it at 99%, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Nithya Raman wins the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by a margin of at least 4%. The margin must be strictly less than 100%, meaning she cannot win by exactly 100% of the vote. Readers often mistake the lower bound, thinking the margin must be greater than 4% rather than greater than or equal to 4%.
- Karen Bass, 2-4% — resolved “No” on 6 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Karen Bass wins the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by a margin between 2% and 4%. It resolves to No if her victory margin falls outside that range or if she loses. Readers often mistake the deadline for the election day itself, but the resolution depends on the final certified vote count.
- Karen Bass, ≥8% — resolved “No” on 6 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Karen Bass wins the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by a margin of at least 8%. The margin must be strictly less than 100% for the outcome to be Yes. Readers often mistake the resolution source, which relies on the official certified election results rather than preliminary vote counts.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Nithya Raman, ≥4% at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- The HillLos Angeles live results: 2026 mayoral election39%
- VarietyKaren Bass and Nithya Raman in Tight Race for L.A. Mayor in Early Returns67%▲28 points since the previous source
- DeadlineNithya Raman & Karen Bass In Dead Heat As L.A. Mayor Vote Counting Continues In Nailbiter Election43%▼24 points since the previous source
- The Hollywood ReporterNithya Raman and Karen Bass Head to Costner ‘Swing Vote’ Territory45%▲2 points since the previous source
- South China Morning PostMeet LA mayoral candidate Nithya Raman’s husband, Vali Chandrasekaran45%
- Bloomberg.comRaman Wins Los Angeles Mayor Race, DDHQ Projects90%▲45 points since the previous source
- The HillRaman ousts Bass as Los Angeles mayor96%▲6 points since the previous source
- The Hollywood ReporterNithya Raman Projected to Win Los Angeles Mayor’s Race, Defeating Karen Bass96%
- politico.com‘An earthquake’: Nithya Raman’s rise jolts LA’s political establishment97%▲1 points since the previous source
- Times of IndiaUS gets another Indian-origin mayor as Nithya Raman wins Los Angeles election96%▼1 points since the previous source
Show 18 later sources
- CBS News PoliticsNithya Raman ousts incumbent Karen Bass in LA mayor's race, CBS News projects95%▼1 points since the previous source
- QuartzNithya Raman wird voraussichtlich Bürgermeisterin Karen Bass bei den Wahlen in Los Angeles besiegen.95%
- QuartzNithya Raman besiegt Bürgermeisterin Karen Bass im Bürgermeisterrennen von Los Angeles, prognostizieren Netzwerke.95%
- politico.comNithya Raman wins LA mayoral race in victory for progressives95%
- VarietyNithya Raman Wins L.A. Mayor’s Race as Karen Bass Concedes95%
- The GuardianDemocratic socialist Nithya Raman wins Los Angeles mayoral race over incumbent Karen Bass95%
- The Guardian USWho is Nithya Raman, the democratic socialist who will be Los Angeles’s next mayor?95%
- QuartzNithya Raman besiegt Bürgermeisterin Karen Bass bei der Bürgermeisterwahl in Los Angeles.95%
- News - South China Morning PostIndia-born leftist Nithya Raman beats incumbent Karen Bass to become LA mayor99%▲4 points since the previous source
- News FeedLos Angeles elects democratic socialist Nithya Raman as mayor99%
- AxiosRaman ousts Bass in LA mayor race for historic socialist win99%
- QuartzNithya Raman besiegte Bürgermeisterin Karen Bass im Rennen in Los Angeles mit 52% zu 48% in der neuesten Auszählung.99%
- BBC NewsDemocratic socialist defeats incumbent Karen Bass in Los Angeles mayor's race99%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraNithya Raman wins LA mayoral race, becoming city’s first South Asian mayor96%▼3 points since the previous source
- The EconomistA generational upset in Los Angeles96%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraDemocratic Socialist Nithya Raman wins LA mayoral race96%
- NPR PoliticsDemocratic socialist Nithya Raman will be Los Angeles' next mayor99%▲3 points since the previous source
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera‘City of immigrants’: Who is Nithya Raman, the Los Angeles mayor-elect?99%
- Current odds99%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- ‘City of immigrants’: Who is Nithya Raman, the Los Angeles mayor-elect? Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Democratic socialist Nithya Raman will be Los Angeles' next mayor NPR Politics ·
- Democratic Socialist Nithya Raman wins LA mayoral race Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- A generational upset in Los Angeles The Economist ·
- Nithya Raman wins LA mayoral race, becoming city’s first South Asian mayor Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Raman ousts Bass in LA mayor race for historic socialist win Axios ·
Show 22 more sources
- Los Angeles elects democratic socialist Nithya Raman as mayor News Feed ·
- Who is Nithya Raman, the democratic socialist who will be Los Angeles’s next mayor? The Guardian US ·
- Democratic socialist Nithya Raman wins Los Angeles mayoral race over incumbent Karen Bass The Guardian ·
- Nithya Raman Wins L.A. Mayor’s Race as Karen Bass Concedes Variety ·
- Nithya Raman wins LA mayoral race in victory for progressives politico.com ·
- Nithya Raman ousts incumbent Karen Bass in LA mayor's race, CBS News projects CBS News Politics ·
- ‘An earthquake’: Nithya Raman’s rise jolts LA’s political establishment politico.com ·
- Nithya Raman Projected to Win Los Angeles Mayor’s Race, Defeating Karen Bass The Hollywood Reporter ·
- Raman ousts Bass as Los Angeles mayor The Hill ·
- Raman Wins Los Angeles Mayor Race, DDHQ Projects Bloomberg.com ·
- Nithya Raman and Karen Bass Head to Costner ‘Swing Vote’ Territory The Hollywood Reporter ·
- Karen Bass and Nithya Raman in Tight Race for L.A. Mayor in Early Returns Variety ·
- Los Angeles live results: 2026 mayoral election The Hill ·
- Democratic socialist defeats incumbent Karen Bass in Los Angeles mayor's race BBC News
- Nithya Raman besiegte Bürgermeisterin Karen Bass im Rennen in Los Angeles mit 52% zu 48% in der neuesten Auszählung. Quartz
- India-born leftist Nithya Raman beats incumbent Karen Bass to become LA mayor News - South China Morning Post
- Nithya Raman besiegt Bürgermeisterin Karen Bass bei der Bürgermeisterwahl in Los Angeles. Quartz
- Nithya Raman besiegt Bürgermeisterin Karen Bass im Bürgermeisterrennen von Los Angeles, prognostizieren Netzwerke. Quartz
- Nithya Raman wird voraussichtlich Bürgermeisterin Karen Bass bei den Wahlen in Los Angeles besiegen. Quartz
- US gets another Indian-origin mayor as Nithya Raman wins Los Angeles election Times of India
- Meet LA mayoral candidate Nithya Raman’s husband, Vali Chandrasekaran South China Morning Post
- Nithya Raman & Karen Bass In Dead Heat As L.A. Mayor Vote Counting Continues In Nailbiter Election Deadline
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Nithya Raman, ≥4% 99%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Karen Bass, 2-4% No 19h ago
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Resolved Karen Bass, ≥8% No 19h ago
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Nithya Raman
- Karen Bass
- Los Angeles