Karen Bass, 2-4%
The market favoured No at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$8k
Liquidity$8k
Resolved6 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 01:13 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 07:13 UTC | 48% |
| 4 Nov, 05:31 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 01:13 UTC | 13% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 11% |
| 3 Nov, 22:12 UTC | 13% |
| 3 Nov, 19:57 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Nov, 17:10 UTC | 16% |
| 2 Nov, 16:28 UTC | 9% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Karen Bass wins the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by a margin between 2% and 4%. It resolves to No if her victory margin falls outside that range or if she loses. Readers often mistake the deadline for the election day itself, but the resolution depends on the final certified vote count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%