Nithya Raman, ≥4%
Implied probability 99%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$30k
Liquidity$30k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 6 Nov, 05:25 UTC | 99% |
| 5 Nov, 23:44 UTC | 96% |
| 5 Nov, 20:49 UTC | 99% |
| 5 Nov, 15:41 UTC | 95% |
| 5 Nov, 14:16 UTC | 96% |
| 5 Nov, 12:44 UTC | 95% |
| 5 Nov, 07:02 UTC | 99% |
| 5 Nov, 06:40 UTC | 95% |
| 5 Nov, 05:35 UTC | 96% |
| 5 Nov, 05:02 UTC | 98% |
| 5 Nov, 02:54 UTC | 97% |
| 5 Nov, 00:51 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 23:32 UTC | 90% |
| 4 Nov, 23:18 UTC | 91% |
| 4 Nov, 22:42 UTC | 88% |
| 4 Nov, 21:58 UTC | 89% |
| 4 Nov, 18:57 UTC | 72% |
| 4 Nov, 18:04 UTC | 70% |
| 4 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 65% |
| 4 Nov, 16:20 UTC | 63% |
| 4 Nov, 15:13 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 12:40 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 10:58 UTC | 92% |
| 4 Nov, 09:43 UTC | 60% |
| 4 Nov, 09:07 UTC | 59% |
| 4 Nov, 07:34 UTC | 45% |
| 4 Nov, 07:27 UTC | 48% |
| 4 Nov, 06:43 UTC | 43% |
| 4 Nov, 06:00 UTC | 40% |
| 4 Nov, 04:33 UTC | 67% |
| 3 Nov, 23:03 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Nov, 17:26 UTC | 29% |
| 3 Nov, 14:46 UTC | 39% |
| 3 Nov, 13:11 UTC | 38% |
| 3 Nov, 02:01 UTC | 34% |
| 1 Nov, 13:46 UTC | 31% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Nithya Raman wins the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by a margin of at least 4%. The margin must be strictly less than 100%, meaning she cannot win by exactly 100% of the vote. Readers often mistake the lower bound, thinking the margin must be greater than 4% rather than greater than or equal to 4%.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%