LA Voter Could Elect Socialist Mayor, Matching New York's Leadership

The story so far

2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 4 Oct 2026. Axios published first, on 4 October at 12:52 UTC; The Guardian US followed 24h 08m later. The most recent article, from The Guardian US, appeared on 5 October at 13:00 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Axios (major outlet), The Guardian US (major outlet).

2 prediction markets price this story:

• Zohran Mamdani — the market puts it at 86%, with $424 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 6 Nov 2030. The market resolves to Yes if Zohran Mamdani wins the next New York City mayoral election. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about planting an olive tree for the actual election result.
• Nithya Raman, ≥4% — the market puts it at 55%, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Nithya Raman wins the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by a margin of at least 4%. The margin must be strictly less than 100%, meaning she cannot win by exactly 100% of the vote. Readers often mistake the lower bound, thinking the margin must be greater than 4% rather than greater than or equal to 4%.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.