Israel's Ben-Gvir Releases Video Threatening to Kill Hamas Figure in Jail
Israeli Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has published a video threatening the life of senior Hamas figure Hassan Salameh while he is incarcerated.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 30 Sept, 08:35 UTC | 0% |
| 29 Sept, 18:47 UTC | 1% |
| 28 Sept, 02:08 UTC | 1% |
| 27 Sept, 02:08 UTC | 1% |
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Step through each article in the order it published and watch Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? respond.
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 28 Sept 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 28 September at 01:33 UTC; Times of India followed 1h 48m later. The most recent article, from Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera, appeared on 28 September at 10:11 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), Times of India.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — the market puts it at 0%, with $7k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 28 Oct 2026. The Yes outcome requires Itamar Ben Gvir to be formally sworn in as Prime Minister after an election. The No outcome applies if someone else takes that specific role or if no one is sworn in by the deadline. Readers often mistake any interim appointment for a final resolution, but only a sworn-in permanent Prime Minister counts.
- Itamar Ben Gvir — the market puts it at 5%, closing 27 Oct 2027. The outcome is Yes if Itamar Ben Gvir becomes Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 legislative election and meets all constitutional requirements before October 27, 2027. The outcome is No if he does not become Prime Minister or fails to meet these requirements by that deadline.
- Itamar Ben-Gvir — the market puts it at 2%, with $3 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2045. The outcome is Yes if Itamar Ben-Gvir becomes the next Prime Minister of Israel after this question is posted. The outcome is No if someone else holds that office first. Readers often mistake news reports or threats for actual appointment; only the official swearing-in counts.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraBen-Gvir releases video threatening to kill senior Hamas figure in jail1%
- Times of IndiaIsrael minister Ben-Gvir threatens to execute jailed Hamas figure1%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraPalestinians denounce Israeli minister Ben-Gvir’s threats against prisoner1%
- Current odds0%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Palestinians denounce Israeli minister Ben-Gvir’s threats against prisoner Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Ben-Gvir releases video threatening to kill senior Hamas figure in jail Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Israel minister Ben-Gvir threatens to execute jailed Hamas figure Times of India
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Polymarket Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? 0%
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Wrong market?
- Kalshi Itamar Ben Gvir 5%
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- Kalshi Itamar Ben-Gvir 2%
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In this story
- Itamar Ben-Gvir
- Hassan Salameh