Leaked AfD emails reveal efforts to court Trump and MAGA allies

The story so far

3 publishers have covered this in 6 articles since 19 Oct 2026. Hacker News published first, on 19 October at 20:31 UTC; Deutsche Welle followed 19h 10m later. The most recent article, from Hacker News, appeared on 23 October at 12:56 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: The Guardian (major outlet), Hacker News, Deutsche Welle.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Before Jan 1, 2027 — the market puts it at 41%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the Alternative fuer Deutschland joins a German state government between now and January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if this does not happen within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked headline as sufficient proof, but only an official entry into a state government counts toward resolution.
• AfD — the market puts it at 82%, closing 25 Mar 2030. The market resolves to Yes if the Alternative for Germany party wins the next German federal election. It resolves to No if any other party wins that election. Readers often mistake this for a prediction of which party will win the next regional or European election, but only the Bundestag vote counts.
• AfD — the market puts it at 58%, closing 15 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if a coalition including the AfD forms the next elected ruling government of Saxony-Anhalt before January 15, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the headline's regional context for a national outcome or miss the strict deadline.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.