Before Jan 1, 2027
Implied probability 44%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$5k
Liquidity$5k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 44% |
| 1 Nov, 20:14 UTC | 44% |
| 31 Oct, 21:53 UTC | 42% |
| 31 Oct, 21:24 UTC | 45% |
| 31 Oct, 18:48 UTC | 43% |
| 31 Oct, 18:04 UTC | 45% |
| 29 Oct, 19:29 UTC | 52% |
| 29 Oct, 18:06 UTC | 46% |
| 27 Oct, 18:05 UTC | 40% |
| 27 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 42% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Alternative fuer Deutschland joins a German state government between now and January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if this does not happen within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked headline as sufficient proof, but only an official entry into a state government counts toward resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 44%
- No 56%