GTA 6 Launch Could Drain $1 Billion From US Economy

An economics professor estimates the release will cost the US economy $1 billion due to absenteeism.

3 publishers · 3 articles · first seen 21 Oct 2026 · updated 16d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day

The odds

How the odds moved · Yes

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data

Time	Chance of yes
now	90%
24 Oct, 13:21 UTC	90%
24 Oct, 10:10 UTC	87%
24 Oct, 06:58 UTC	89%
24 Oct, 00:59 UTC	86%
23 Oct, 18:22 UTC	90%
23 Oct, 17:31 UTC	86%
23 Oct, 15:27 UTC	88%
23 Oct, 13:52 UTC	90%
23 Oct, 10:39 UTC	91%
23 Oct, 02:33 UTC	85%
23 Oct, 01:18 UTC	89%
22 Oct, 21:37 UTC	87%
22 Oct, 19:44 UTC	85%
22 Oct, 18:05 UTC	87%
22 Oct, 17:38 UTC	86%
22 Oct, 17:02 UTC	85%
22 Oct, 09:54 UTC	88%
22 Oct, 05:39 UTC	87%
22 Oct, 05:18 UTC	90%
22 Oct, 04:34 UTC	83%
22 Oct, 00:45 UTC	87%
21 Oct, 20:57 UTC	83%
21 Oct, 19:54 UTC	87%
21 Oct, 19:02 UTC	82%
21 Oct, 15:38 UTC	83%
21 Oct, 14:55 UTC	87%
21 Oct, 12:49 UTC	87%
21 Oct, 05:34 UTC	91%
21 Oct, 05:13 UTC	87%
21 Oct, 02:13 UTC	89%
20 Oct, 19:55 UTC	86%
20 Oct, 07:29 UTC	90%
20 Oct, 05:47 UTC	89%
19 Oct, 03:09 UTC	94%
18 Oct, 22:07 UTC	92%
18 Oct, 19:10 UTC	91%
18 Oct, 18:43 UTC	89%
18 Oct, 12:06 UTC	91%
18 Oct, 06:30 UTC	89%
18 Oct, 03:23 UTC	90%
18 Oct, 02:04 UTC	89%
17 Oct, 23:58 UTC	85%
17 Oct, 18:50 UTC	86%
17 Oct, 17:43 UTC	91%
17 Oct, 16:16 UTC	90%
17 Oct, 12:48 UTC	85%
17 Oct, 11:20 UTC	94%
17 Oct, 09:19 UTC	91%
17 Oct, 06:47 UTC	94%
17 Oct, 05:35 UTC	91%
17 Oct, 05:29 UTC	92%
16 Oct, 17:55 UTC	95%
16 Oct, 15:24 UTC	94%
16 Oct, 14:16 UTC	91%
16 Oct, 13:24 UTC	95%
15 Oct, 15:45 UTC	94%
15 Oct, 15:05 UTC	86%
15 Oct, 11:34 UTC	92%
15 Oct, 06:21 UTC	94%
14 Oct, 19:29 UTC	92%
13 Oct, 13:18 UTC	91%
13 Oct, 05:22 UTC	88%
13 Oct, 03:54 UTC	91%
12 Oct, 22:47 UTC	88%
12 Oct, 11:39 UTC	89%
12 Oct, 07:47 UTC	91%
12 Oct, 06:39 UTC	92%
12 Oct, 02:28 UTC	91%
12 Oct, 01:37 UTC	88%
11 Oct, 21:43 UTC	91%
11 Oct, 17:57 UTC	87%
11 Oct, 08:19 UTC	91%
10 Oct, 18:33 UTC	89%
10 Oct, 16:41 UTC	84%
10 Oct, 15:01 UTC	91%
10 Oct, 14:48 UTC	85%
9 Oct, 23:52 UTC	88%
9 Oct, 18:56 UTC	84%
9 Oct, 17:46 UTC	89%
9 Oct, 04:33 UTC	84%
8 Oct, 20:27 UTC	53%
8 Oct, 15:28 UTC	91%
8 Oct, 04:37 UTC	86%
7 Oct, 07:20 UTC	91%
6 Oct, 20:30 UTC	87%
6 Oct, 03:23 UTC	91%
5 Oct, 16:33 UTC	88%
5 Oct, 15:14 UTC	91%
5 Oct, 10:15 UTC	88%
5 Oct, 03:52 UTC	90%
5 Oct, 02:40 UTC	87%
5 Oct, 01:48 UTC	91%
5 Oct, 01:10 UTC	92%
4 Oct, 19:52 UTC	91%
4 Oct, 19:28 UTC	87%
2 Oct, 22:23 UTC	91%
2 Oct, 20:18 UTC	92%
2 Oct, 17:52 UTC	88%
2 Oct, 07:49 UTC	92%
2 Oct, 00:10 UTC	87%
1 Oct, 12:07 UTC	90%
1 Oct, 11:45 UTC	94%
1 Oct, 00:15 UTC	92%
30 Sept, 23:39 UTC	91%
30 Sept, 22:37 UTC	85%
30 Sept, 01:01 UTC	91%
29 Sept, 20:49 UTC	91%
29 Sept, 12:40 UTC	90%
29 Sept, 05:53 UTC	89%
28 Sept, 10:28 UTC	90%
28 Sept, 04:15 UTC	89%
28 Sept, 01:03 UTC	84%
28 Sept, 00:54 UTC	85%
27 Sept, 19:20 UTC	88%
27 Sept, 08:01 UTC	87%
27 Sept, 00:34 UTC	84%
26 Sept, 23:42 UTC	91%
26 Sept, 18:51 UTC	88%
26 Sept, 04:36 UTC	83%
25 Sept, 19:32 UTC	91%
25 Sept, 11:04 UTC	89%
25 Sept, 07:21 UTC	80%
25 Sept, 05:43 UTC	91%
25 Sept, 03:50 UTC	87%
25 Sept, 02:13 UTC	91%
25 Sept, 01:39 UTC	89%
25 Sept, 00:06 UTC	81%
24 Sept, 20:52 UTC	91%
24 Sept, 18:56 UTC	86%
24 Sept, 18:24 UTC	91%
23 Sept, 17:12 UTC	89%

The story so far

3 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 21 Oct 2026. The Hill published first, on 21 October at 12:41 UTC; NME followed 24h 52m later. The most recent article, from Fortune, appeared on 22 October at 16:47 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: The Hill (major outlet), NME, Fortune.

One prediction market prices this story:

Yes — the market puts it at 90%, with $90 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Grand Theft Auto VI becomes the highest-grossing video game within its first 24 hours of release in 2026. It resolves to No if this financial record is not broken during that specific window. Readers often mistake the total lifetime sales for the required 24-hour revenue metric.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Yes at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

21 Oct, 12:41The Hill GTA 6 launch could drain $1 billion from US economy — this is how91%
22 Oct, 13:33NME ‘GTA 6’ predicted to cause 1.5million Americans to take sick day, costing companies $1billion88%▼3 points since the previous source
22 Oct, 16:47Fortune GTA VI probably won’t cost the U.S. economy $1 billion—and economists say it wouldn’t matter if it did88%
NowCurrent odds90%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

Kalshi Yes 90% +2 $90 24hends 31 Jan 2027
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Wrong market?

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In this story

Jose Garcia Montalvo

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