Burnham floats UK EU rejoin as France and Spain welcome idea
Prime Minister Andy Burnham suggests the UK could rejoin the bloc, prompting French President Emmanuel Macron and Spanish leader Pedro Sanchez to express openness to Britain's return.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
First reported by Bloomberg.com, 1h 56m ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 8% |
| 5 Oct, 06:36 UTC | 8% |
| 5 Oct, 05:50 UTC | 9% |
| 5 Oct, 00:11 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 01:54 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 18:29 UTC | 10% |
| 25 Sept, 14:32 UTC | 6% |
| 24 Sept, 13:57 UTC | 3% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Before Jan 1, 2027 respond.
The story so far
8 publishers have covered this in 12 articles since 30 Sept 2026. Bloomberg.com published first, on 30 September at 13:04 UTC; South China Morning Post followed 1h 57m later. The most recent article, from News Feed, appeared on 3 October at 04:00 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Bloomberg.com (major outlet), The Guardian Business (major outlet), News Feed (major outlet), South China Morning Post, Times of India, Deutsche Welle, France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines, Latest articles.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Before Jan 1, 2027 — the market puts it at 8%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Andy Burnham becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if he does not hold that office by that date. Readers often mistake the linked news story about local political pressure for a change in national leadership.
- Reform — resolved “No” on 14 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Andy Burnham explicitly uses the word "Reform" while speaking during Prime Minister's Questions in the UK House of Commons. It resolves to No if he does not say that specific word during that session. Readers often mistake any mention of Reform elsewhere for a win, but only utterances during PMQs count.
- Ed Miliband — the market puts it at 3%, closing 1 Jan 2028. The outcome is Yes if Ed Miliband leaves the Burnham Cabinet before January 1, 2028. The outcome is No if he does not leave by that date. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Andrew Burnham for the actual event triggering the resolution.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Before Jan 1, 2027 at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Bloomberg.comFrance and Spain Would Welcome Back UK if It Rejoined EU4%
- South China Morning PostFrance and Spain welcome idea of UK rejoining EU after Burnham’s speech4%
- Times of IndiaUK PM Burnham says may rejoin EU; France, Spain say 'welcome back'4%
- Deutsche WelleFrance's Macron, Spain's Sanchez welcome idea of UK rejoining EU after Burnham remarks4%
- Deutsche WelleFrance, Spain welcome idea of UK rejoining EU4%
- The Guardian BusinessNo 10 gathering evidence on public support for UK rejoining EU4%
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesUK PM Burnham reopens divisive debate on rejoining EU4%
- News FeedBurnham suggests UK could rejoin EU4%
- Latest articlesFrance and Spain would welcome back U.K. if it rejoined EU4%
- France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesBurnham reopens Brexit debate: EU says UK must chart Its own path on future relations4%
- Latest articlesU.K.’s path back to the EU will hit hard post-Brexit realities4%
- News FeedDoes the EU want Britain back?4%
- Current odds8%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Does the EU want Britain back? News Feed ·
- Burnham suggests UK could rejoin EU News Feed ·
- No 10 gathering evidence on public support for UK rejoining EU The Guardian Business ·
- France and Spain Would Welcome Back UK if It Rejoined EU Bloomberg.com ·
- U.K.’s path back to the EU will hit hard post-Brexit realities Latest articles
- Burnham reopens Brexit debate: EU says UK must chart Its own path on future relations France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
Show 6 more sources
- France and Spain would welcome back U.K. if it rejoined EU Latest articles
- UK PM Burnham reopens divisive debate on rejoining EU France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines
- France's Macron, Spain's Sanchez welcome idea of UK rejoining EU after Burnham remarks Deutsche Welle
- France, Spain welcome idea of UK rejoining EU Deutsche Welle
- UK PM Burnham says may rejoin EU; France, Spain say 'welcome back' Times of India
- France and Spain welcome idea of UK rejoining EU after Burnham’s speech South China Morning Post
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Before Jan 1, 2027 8%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Reform No 24d ago
The market favoured Yes at 60% a day out, but No won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Ed Miliband 3%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Andy Burnham
- Emmanuel Macron
- Pedro Sanchez
- United Kingdom
- European Union