Reform
Implied probability 50%−2
24-hour volume$61
Total volume$12k
Liquidity$12k
Resolves31 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 50% |
| 7 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 50% |
| 6 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 51% |
| 5 Oct, 23:09 UTC | 52% |
| 4 Oct, 19:00 UTC | 54% |
| 3 Oct, 19:42 UTC | 53% |
| 3 Oct, 08:30 UTC | 52% |
| 3 Oct, 05:16 UTC | 54% |
| 2 Oct, 20:45 UTC | 53% |
| 30 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 46% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Andy Burnham explicitly uses the word "Reform" while speaking during Prime Minister's Questions in the UK House of Commons. It resolves to No if he does not say that specific word during that session. Readers often mistake any mention of Reform elsewhere for a win, but only utterances during PMQs count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 50%
- No 50%