Sandra Hüller stars in Pawel Pawlikowski's Fatherland as Thomas Mann's daughter
The film follows the writer and his daughter on an emotional journey through postwar Germany.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 74% |
| 26 Oct, 01:02 UTC | 74% |
| 25 Oct, 19:04 UTC | 69% |
| 25 Oct, 03:38 UTC | 66% |
| 24 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 75% |
| 24 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 74% |
| 24 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 72% |
| 23 Oct, 23:50 UTC | 66% |
| 23 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 60% |
| 22 Oct, 22:04 UTC | 68% |
| 22 Oct, 14:17 UTC | 59% |
| 22 Oct, 03:09 UTC | 66% |
| 21 Oct, 08:17 UTC | 61% |
| 20 Oct, 23:49 UTC | 62% |
| 20 Oct, 23:14 UTC | 63% |
| 20 Oct, 22:59 UTC | 62% |
| 20 Oct, 19:14 UTC | 65% |
| 20 Oct, 14:40 UTC | 66% |
| 20 Oct, 14:01 UTC | 65% |
| 20 Oct, 13:53 UTC | 64% |
| 20 Oct, 09:32 UTC | 63% |
| 20 Oct, 09:25 UTC | 64% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 63% |
| 17 Oct, 21:45 UTC | 58% |
| 17 Oct, 12:48 UTC | 57% |
| 17 Oct, 09:33 UTC | 57% |
| 17 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 58% |
| 17 Oct, 08:52 UTC | 57% |
| 17 Oct, 07:34 UTC | 57% |
| 17 Oct, 07:01 UTC | 58% |
| 17 Oct, 04:30 UTC | 54% |
| 16 Oct, 23:43 UTC | 60% |
| 16 Oct, 15:24 UTC | 59% |
| 16 Oct, 05:14 UTC | 58% |
| 16 Oct, 04:01 UTC | 59% |
| 15 Oct, 15:45 UTC | 58% |
| 15 Oct, 09:16 UTC | 54% |
| 15 Oct, 04:49 UTC | 53% |
| 13 Oct, 19:04 UTC | 52% |
| 11 Oct, 05:23 UTC | 60% |
| 10 Oct, 20:53 UTC | 66% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 68% |
| 5 Oct, 19:06 UTC | 71% |
| 5 Oct, 07:01 UTC | 72% |
| 4 Oct, 13:54 UTC | 65% |
| 4 Oct, 03:40 UTC | 67% |
| 2 Oct, 23:18 UTC | 68% |
| 2 Oct, 19:43 UTC | 69% |
| 2 Oct, 00:49 UTC | 65% |
| 1 Oct, 19:12 UTC | 67% |
| 1 Oct, 18:43 UTC | 73% |
| 1 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 72% |
| 30 Sept, 01:52 UTC | 69% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 69% |
| 28 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 62% |
| 28 Sept, 12:40 UTC | 58% |
| 27 Sept, 12:17 UTC | 51% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Sandra Hüller respond.
The story so far
6 publishers have covered this in 7 articles since 21 Oct 2026. IndieWire published first, on 21 October at 12:46 UTC; News Feed followed 22h 44m later. The most recent article, from Rolling Stone, appeared on 24 October at 16:30 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: News Feed (major outlet), The New York Times (major outlet), The Guardian Culture (major outlet), IndieWire, The A.V. Club, Rolling Stone.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Sandra Hüller — the market puts it at 74%, with $77 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Sandra Hüller is officially nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards. It resolves to No if she is not nominated by the time the awards are announced. Readers often mistake a film premiere or critical acclaim for an official nomination, which does not count.
- Sandra Hüller — the market puts it at 3%, with $381 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2027. The outcome is Yes if Sandra Hüller wins Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the announcement of nominations for a win; only the final award counts.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Sandra Hüller at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- IndieWire‘Fatherland’ Review: Pawel Pawlikowski Fans Will Feel Cozily, Coldly at Home with His Latest Tour Through Europe’s Regrets61%
- News FeedFatherland — the past is never past in Paweł Pawlikowski’s spare Thomas Mann story66%▲5 points since the previous source
- The A.V. ClubSandra Hüller can't go home again in Paweł Pawlikowski's Fatherland66%
- The New York Times‘Fatherland’ Review: Returning to a Divided Germany59%▼7 points since the previous source
- The Guardian Culture‘I struggle to see myself as someone special’: Sandra Hüller on being the star of four - or, possibly, five - of the year’s biggest films68%▲9 points since the previous source
- IndieWirePawel Pawlikowski’s Historical Stunner ‘Fatherland’ Is About Far More Than Thomas Mann — It’s About Today’s Own Fissures68%
- Rolling StoneShe Cries. She Rages. She Sings Harry Styles. Is Sandra Hüller the MVP of 2026?74%▲6 points since the previous source
- Current odds74%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- ‘I struggle to see myself as someone special’: Sandra Hüller on being the star of four - or, possibly, five - of the year’s biggest films The Guardian Culture ·
- ‘Fatherland’ Review: Returning to a Divided Germany The New York Times ·
- Fatherland — the past is never past in Paweł Pawlikowski’s spare Thomas Mann story News Feed ·
- She Cries. She Rages. She Sings Harry Styles. Is Sandra Hüller the MVP of 2026? Rolling Stone
- Pawel Pawlikowski’s Historical Stunner ‘Fatherland’ Is About Far More Than Thomas Mann — It’s About Today’s Own Fissures IndieWire
- Sandra Hüller can't go home again in Paweł Pawlikowski's Fatherland The A.V. Club
- ‘Fatherland’ Review: Pawel Pawlikowski Fans Will Feel Cozily, Coldly at Home with His Latest Tour Through Europe’s Regrets IndieWire
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Sandra Hüller 74% +8
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Sandra Hüller 3% −1
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In this story
- Sandra Hüller
- Paweł Pawlikowski
- Thomas Mann
- Hanns Zischler