Equal-Weight S&P 500 Set for Rare Seven-Week Losing Streak
The index is on track for its seventh consecutive down week, marking only the third time this streak has occurred in history.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 75% |
| 29 Oct, 13:38 UTC | 75% |
| 28 Oct, 13:49 UTC | 60% |
| 28 Oct, 08:56 UTC | 76% |
| 24 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 61% |
| 24 Oct, 17:08 UTC | 69% |
| 23 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 63% |
| 22 Oct, 18:41 UTC | 59% |
| 22 Oct, 13:49 UTC | 52% |
| 20 Oct, 22:38 UTC | 49% |
| 20 Oct, 14:01 UTC | 48% |
| 20 Oct, 13:53 UTC | 46% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 40% |
| 16 Oct, 19:13 UTC | 47% |
| 16 Oct, 18:31 UTC | 46% |
| 15 Oct, 13:45 UTC | 41% |
| 14 Oct, 19:57 UTC | 39% |
| 30 Sept, 18:14 UTC | 40% |
| 29 Sept, 17:05 UTC | 43% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 30 Sept 2026. Bloomberg Markets published first, on 30 September at 18:02 UTC.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- S&P 500 Equal Weight Index — the market puts it at 75%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index finishes above the standard S&P 500 Index at any point during 2026 by a margin of at least 0.001%. The outcome is No if this condition is not met. Readers often mistake the requirement for a sustained lead or confuse the two indices.
- Before Nov 1, 2026 — resolved “No” on 1 Nov 2026. The outcome is Yes if the S&P 500 Index exceeds $8,000 at any time between now and November 1, 2026. The outcome is No if the index never reaches that level within this period. Readers often mistake the resolution date for a closing price requirement rather than a threshold check.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
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Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi S&P 500 Equal Weight Index 75%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Before Nov 1, 2026 No 6d ago
The market favoured No at 97% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
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In this story
- S&P 500 Index