Elsinore leads British Independent Film Awards nominations with 12 nods
The drama starring Andrew Scott tops the list ahead of the ceremony, while Clio Barnard and Mike Leigh also receive recognition.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
First reported by Deadline, 2h 49m ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 33% |
| 5 Nov, 16:36 UTC | 33% |
| 5 Nov, 12:44 UTC | 31% |
| 4 Nov, 21:10 UTC | 33% |
| 3 Nov, 15:07 UTC | 35% |
| 3 Nov, 14:18 UTC | 32% |
| 3 Nov, 05:04 UTC | 31% |
| 2 Nov, 23:01 UTC | 33% |
| 2 Nov, 11:57 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Nov, 18:18 UTC | 35% |
| 1 Nov, 14:37 UTC | 34% |
| 27 Oct, 22:44 UTC | 32% |
| 27 Oct, 02:42 UTC | 33% |
| 26 Oct, 14:47 UTC | 28% |
| 26 Oct, 03:57 UTC | 32% |
| 25 Oct, 18:04 UTC | 29% |
| 25 Oct, 06:05 UTC | 28% |
| 25 Oct, 03:58 UTC | 30% |
| 24 Oct, 20:23 UTC | 27% |
| 24 Oct, 19:44 UTC | 30% |
| 23 Oct, 19:57 UTC | 32% |
| 22 Oct, 17:02 UTC | 30% |
| 22 Oct, 03:45 UTC | 39% |
| 22 Oct, 02:47 UTC | 32% |
| 20 Oct, 14:33 UTC | 27% |
| 20 Oct, 10:35 UTC | 32% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 24% |
| 19 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 29% |
| 19 Oct, 03:16 UTC | 27% |
| 18 Oct, 01:35 UTC | 28% |
| 17 Oct, 04:30 UTC | 29% |
| 17 Oct, 04:23 UTC | 22% |
| 16 Oct, 15:52 UTC | 23% |
| 15 Oct, 23:15 UTC | 28% |
| 15 Oct, 13:31 UTC | 21% |
| 9 Oct, 06:11 UTC | 29% |
| 8 Oct, 15:46 UTC | 28% |
| 8 Oct, 15:04 UTC | 23% |
| 7 Oct, 14:49 UTC | 29% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Elsinore respond.
The story so far
3 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 3 Nov 2026. Deadline published first, on 3 November at 10:00 UTC; The Guardian followed 2h 50m later. The most recent article, from The Hollywood Reporter, appeared on 3 November at 20:30 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The Guardian (major outlet), The Hollywood Reporter (major outlet), Deadline.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Elsinore — the market puts it at 33%, with $216 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the film Elsinore receives a nomination for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the release date or festival premiere for the official nomination announcement.
- Elsinore — the market puts it at 1%, closing 31 Dec 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the film Elsinore wins the Best Picture award at the 99th Academy Awards. It resolves to No if it does not win that specific award. Readers often mistake other nominations or wins for this outcome, but only a Best Picture victory counts.
- Elsinore — the market puts it at 2%, closing 10 Jan 2028. The market resolves to Yes if the film Elsinore wins the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture - Drama at the 84th Golden Globe Awards. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about British Independent Film Awards nominations as relevant, but only the specific Golden Globe win counts.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Elsinore at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- DeadlineBritish Independent Film Awards: ‘Elsinore’ Leads Nominations31%
- The GuardianAndrew Scott drama Elsinore leads British independent film award nominations31%
- The Hollywood ReporterIn ‘Elsinore,’ Billie Piper Found “Beautiful Chaos” With Andrew Scott — And a New Career Chapter35%▲4 points since the previous source
- Current odds33%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Elsinore 33% −2
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Elsinore 1%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Elsinore 2%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
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In this story
- Andrew Scott
- Elsinore
- Simon Stone
- British Independent Film Awards