Musk pledges SpaceX shares to every US child via Trump Accounts
Elon Musk plans to distribute one share of SpaceX to each American child next year, a move facilitated by Trump Accounts and valued at over $10 billion.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
First reported by Bloomberg.com, 4 min ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 11% |
| 24 Oct, 08:02 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Oct, 23:50 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Oct, 16:07 UTC | 9% |
| 23 Oct, 03:41 UTC | 12% |
| 21 Oct, 04:19 UTC | 10% |
| 21 Oct, 00:22 UTC | 11% |
| 18 Oct, 20:59 UTC | 10% |
| 18 Oct, 18:22 UTC | 11% |
| 17 Oct, 21:52 UTC | 12% |
| 17 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 11% |
| 17 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 9% |
| 17 Oct, 17:35 UTC | 11% |
| 17 Oct, 17:14 UTC | 10% |
| 17 Oct, 02:11 UTC | 9% |
| 17 Oct, 01:44 UTC | 10% |
| 16 Oct, 23:09 UTC | 12% |
| 16 Oct, 21:16 UTC | 9% |
| 16 Oct, 18:52 UTC | 13% |
| 15 Oct, 06:46 UTC | 11% |
| 12 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 9% |
| 12 Oct, 16:58 UTC | 10% |
| 12 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 12% |
| 12 Oct, 04:35 UTC | 9% |
| 11 Oct, 22:58 UTC | 12% |
| 11 Oct, 15:49 UTC | 8% |
| 7 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 9% |
| 5 Oct, 16:03 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Oct, 19:36 UTC | 11% |
| 3 Oct, 13:03 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Oct, 11:21 UTC | 11% |
| 30 Sept, 21:16 UTC | 9% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Mars respond.
The story so far
19 publishers have covered this in 30 articles since 19 Oct 2026. Bloomberg.com published first, on 19 October at 08:38 UTC; All Content from Business Insider followed 5 min later. The most recent article, from All Content from Business Insider, appeared on 22 October at 09:49 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Bloomberg Technology (major outlet), Axios (major outlet), The New York Times (major outlet), TechCrunch (major outlet), The Hill (major outlet), Variety (major outlet), The Verge (major outlet), Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), All Content from Business Insider, South China Morning Post, Quartz, Times of India and 7 more, all listed under Sources below.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Mars — the market puts it at 11%, with $479 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Aug 2099. The market resolves to Yes if Elon Musk travels to Mars before he dies or before August 1, 2099, whichever comes first. It resolves to No if that event does not happen within those limits. Readers often mistake the deadline for a fixed date rather than the earlier of his death or the specified year.
- Above $800 billion — the market puts it at 68%, closing 31 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Forbes reports Elon Musk's net worth exceeds $800 billion on December 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the source of truth, assuming any financial report counts instead of only Forbes.
- Elon Musk — the market puts it at 9%, with $10 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Elon Musk holds the title of CEO for X before January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if he does not hold that title by that date. Readers often mistake the linked news story about pricing changes as a confirmation of his employment status.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Mars at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Bloomberg.comFrench Protests, Musk Pledges SpaceX Shares For US Kids, More10%
- All Content from Business InsiderElon Musk says he'll give every child in America a share in SpaceX10%
- Bloomberg TechnologyMusk Says He Will Gift SpaceX Shares to ‘Every Kid in America’10%
- AxiosMusk pledges 1 SpaceX share for every child in America10%
- South China Morning PostElon Musk says he will give SpaceX share to ‘every kid in America’10%
- Bloomberg TechnologyMusk Pledges SpaceX Shares to ‘Every Kid in America’10%
- QuartzElon Musk pledged to give every U.S. child one share of SpaceX stock next year10%
- QuartzElon Musk hat versprochen, jedem US-amerikanischen Kind nächstes Jahr eine Aktie von SpaceX zu geben.10%
- Times of India'One SpaceX share for every kid in America': Can Elon Musk actually do it?10%
- The New York TimesElon Musk Says He Will Give a SpaceX Share to ‘Every Kid in America’10%
Show 20 later sources
- TechCrunchMusk pledges to give ‘every kid in America’ one of his SpaceX shares10%
- The HillMusk says he will give SpaceX share to every child in US10%
- VarietyElon Musk Says He Will Give One SpaceX Share ‘to Every Kid in America’ — a Giveaway That Would Amount to Over $10.5 Billion10%
- The VergeElon Musk promises to give one SpaceX share to every child in the US10%
- FortuneBillionaire Elon Musk says he’ll give every kid in America shares of SpaceX next year—it’ll add up to over $10 billion in stock10%
- EntrepreneurElon Musk Just Said He’ll Give a SpaceX Share to ‘Every Kid in America.’ That Could Cost Him $10.7 Billion.10%
- theinformation.comMusk Plans to Give a SpaceX share to “Every Kid in America”10%
- Inc.Elon Musk Wants Every U.S. Child to Own SpaceX Stock. Experts Have 3 Unanswered Questions10%
- The HillMusk to give SpaceX share to every US child10%
- decrypt.coAnthropic Gives 5% of Itself to the Public. Musk Answers by Giving Away SpaceX Shares10%
- The VergeElon Musk’s proposed SpaceX stock giveaway would go into ‘Trump Accounts’10%
- Times of IndiaAfter Dario Amodei’s donation, Elon Musk makes a promise to every kid in America10%
- All Content from Business InsiderElon Musk's $10 billion share giveaway is the latest sign he and Trump are solidly back on the same page10%
- africa.businessinsider.comElon Musk follows Africa’s richest man’s playbook with $10.5 billion SpaceX share giveaway to American children10%
- The New York TimesInvestors in Anticipation Over Musk’s Next Big SpaceX Deal10%
- MarketWatchElon Musk promised a SpaceX share to every kid in America — don’t hold your breath10%
- Mother JonesOne SpaceX Share Per Child: The New AI PR Strategy10%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraMusk pledges $10bn in SpaceX shares for US children: Who really gains?10%
- Inc.Elon Musk’s SpaceX Share Giveaway Isn’t Charity. It’s the Longest Game in Marketing10%
- All Content from Business InsiderElon Musk wants to give every American kid a piece of SpaceX. History shows what happens when millions become shareholders overnight.10%
- Current odds11%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Musk pledges $10bn in SpaceX shares for US children: Who really gains? Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Investors in Anticipation Over Musk’s Next Big SpaceX Deal The New York Times ·
- Elon Musk’s proposed SpaceX stock giveaway would go into ‘Trump Accounts’ The Verge ·
- Musk to give SpaceX share to every US child The Hill ·
- Elon Musk promises to give one SpaceX share to every child in the US The Verge ·
- Elon Musk Says He Will Give One SpaceX Share ‘to Every Kid in America’ — a Giveaway That Would Amount to Over $10.5 Billion Variety ·
Show 24 more sources
- Musk says he will give SpaceX share to every child in US The Hill ·
- Musk pledges to give ‘every kid in America’ one of his SpaceX shares TechCrunch ·
- Elon Musk Says He Will Give a SpaceX Share to ‘Every Kid in America’ The New York Times ·
- Musk Pledges SpaceX Shares to ‘Every Kid in America’ Bloomberg Technology ·
- Musk pledges 1 SpaceX share for every child in America Axios ·
- Musk Says He Will Gift SpaceX Shares to ‘Every Kid in America’ Bloomberg Technology ·
- French Protests, Musk Pledges SpaceX Shares For US Kids, More Bloomberg.com ·
- Elon Musk wants to give every American kid a piece of SpaceX. History shows what happens when millions become shareholders overnight. All Content from Business Insider
- Elon Musk’s SpaceX Share Giveaway Isn’t Charity. It’s the Longest Game in Marketing Inc.
- One SpaceX Share Per Child: The New AI PR Strategy Mother Jones
- Elon Musk promised a SpaceX share to every kid in America — don’t hold your breath MarketWatch
- Elon Musk follows Africa’s richest man’s playbook with $10.5 billion SpaceX share giveaway to American children africa.businessinsider.com
- Elon Musk's $10 billion share giveaway is the latest sign he and Trump are solidly back on the same page All Content from Business Insider
- After Dario Amodei’s donation, Elon Musk makes a promise to every kid in America Times of India
- Anthropic Gives 5% of Itself to the Public. Musk Answers by Giving Away SpaceX Shares decrypt.co
- Elon Musk Wants Every U.S. Child to Own SpaceX Stock. Experts Have 3 Unanswered Questions Inc.
- Musk Plans to Give a SpaceX share to “Every Kid in America” theinformation.com
- Elon Musk Just Said He’ll Give a SpaceX Share to ‘Every Kid in America.’ That Could Cost Him $10.7 Billion. Entrepreneur
- Billionaire Elon Musk says he’ll give every kid in America shares of SpaceX next year—it’ll add up to over $10 billion in stock Fortune
- 'One SpaceX share for every kid in America': Can Elon Musk actually do it? Times of India
- Elon Musk pledged to give every U.S. child one share of SpaceX stock next year Quartz
- Elon Musk hat versprochen, jedem US-amerikanischen Kind nächstes Jahr eine Aktie von SpaceX zu geben. Quartz
- Elon Musk says he will give SpaceX share to ‘every kid in America’ South China Morning Post
- Elon Musk says he'll give every child in America a share in SpaceX All Content from Business Insider
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Mars 11% −1
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Wrong market?
- Kalshi Above $800 billion 68%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Elon Musk 9% −2
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