Economist Emmanuel Saez Helps Architect California’s Billionaire Tax Campaign

The story so far

2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 24 Sept 2026. Washington Post Business published first, on 24 September at 09:00 UTC; All Content from Business Insider followed 2h 51m later. The most recent article, from All Content from Business Insider, appeared on 24 September at 11:50 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Washington Post Business (major outlet), All Content from Business Insider.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Yes — resolved “Yes” on 4 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if California holds an official one-time billionaire tax ballot initiative before November 5, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake any proposed legislation or campaign activity for the required official ballot vote.
• In 2026 — the market puts it at 4%, with $1.1M traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if a specific one-time tax on billionaires appears on a California ballot and wins voter approval. It resolves to No if that initiative fails or does not appear on the ballot. Readers often mistake general billionaire taxes for this specific ballot measure.
• Before Jan 1, 2027 — the market puts it at 1%, with $4k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if California's 2026 billionaire tax becomes legally operative between now and January 1, 2027. It is No if the tax does not become legally operative within that window. Readers often mistake the news story about the campaign for proof that the tax is already in effect.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.