Before Jan 1, 2027
Implied probability 1%−1
24-hour volume$282
Total volume$37k
Liquidity$37k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 06:07 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 19:07 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 18:35 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 2% |
| 5 Nov, 15:57 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 05:02 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 20:23 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 19:04 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 14:30 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 14:01 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 12:54 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 11:32 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 09:14 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 08:10 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 07:56 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 07:04 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 05:39 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 05:17 UTC | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 04:47 UTC | 14% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 14% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Nov, 03:03 UTC | 20% |
| 4 Nov, 02:56 UTC | 16% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 17% |
| 4 Nov, 01:20 UTC | 19% |
| 4 Nov, 00:43 UTC | 15% |
| 4 Nov, 00:15 UTC | 14% |
| 3 Nov, 23:24 UTC | 12% |
| 3 Nov, 22:56 UTC | 13% |
| 3 Nov, 22:19 UTC | 13% |
| 3 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 11% |
| 3 Nov, 18:06 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Nov, 16:47 UTC | 14% |
| 3 Nov, 15:36 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Nov, 05:04 UTC | 11% |
| 3 Nov, 02:51 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Nov, 17:04 UTC | 12% |
| 2 Nov, 06:42 UTC | 16% |
| 2 Nov, 02:22 UTC | 15% |
| 2 Nov, 01:32 UTC | 12% |
| 2 Nov, 00:04 UTC | 17% |
| 1 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 16% |
| 1 Nov, 18:33 UTC | 12% |
| 1 Nov, 17:35 UTC | 13% |
| 1 Nov, 16:22 UTC | 15% |
| 1 Nov, 13:17 UTC | 18% |
| 31 Oct, 21:39 UTC | 16% |
| 31 Oct, 18:55 UTC | 18% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if California's 2026 billionaire tax becomes legally operative between now and January 1, 2027. It is No if the tax does not become legally operative within that window. Readers often mistake the news story about the campaign for proof that the tax is already in effect.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%